There are two huge Game 5s in the NBA tonight, and our props analyst has plays for both Knicks vs. Heat and Lakers vs. Warriors.
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Here’s how I would approach today’s slate in NBA Playoffs slate.
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Julius Randle More Than 9 Rebounds
This postseason, Julius Randle is averaging 8.4 rebounds, but he has missed some time with an ankle injury. In this series, he is averaging 11.7 rebounds per game. He soared over this projection with 12 rebounds in Game 2 and 14 rebounds in Game 3. He also had nine rebounds in Game 4.
Mitchell Robinson getting into foul trouble has also resulted in Randle grabbing more boards. Robinson had four fouls in Games 2 and 3 and played 35 minutes combined. Fouls are fickle from game to game, but Robinson does still have to deal with Bam Adebayo, which has been a contributing factor to him being in foul trouble.
Whether Robinson's minutes are limited or not, Randle is averaging 18.3 rebound chances per game in this series, per NBAStats. He is converting 63.6% of those chances. For Randle to meet or surpass this projection, he will just need to convert half or slightly over 50% of those chances, provided that he gets 18 again. The way this series has gone with a lot of low-scoring defensive battles, I would say it's likely that Randle gets those chances and has more than nine rebounds.
Andrew Wiggins More Than 4.5 3s Attempted
Andrew Wiggins has attempted at least four 3-pointers in every game this series. He surpassed this projection in Games 1 and 4, the two that were not blowouts. You may feel more comfortable betting on his makes, and Wiggins has made two in each of the last two games. However, the volume is there for him to go over this projection.
With the Warriors going smaller, Wiggins is playing up at the power forward spot. Anthony Davis was "defending" him in Game 4, however Davis was more interested in guarding the basket. As a result, Wiggins benefited from this by getting open 3s, and he attempted six of them. He also attempted five 3s in Game 1.
In Games 1 and 4, Wiggins attempted exactly 14 field goal attempts in both. Outside of Stephen Curry, the Warriors have not gotten a lot of production from the rest of the supporting cast, which has led to more shots for Wiggins. If he gets 14 field goal attempts again, it is likely that more than a third of them are from beyond the arc, and he surpasses this projection.
