Friday night's NBA Playoffs slate features a pair of Game 3 matchups with with value in player prop markets on stars and role players in line for big games.
I'm targeting two 3-point props and bonus bet in tonight's Game 3 matchups: Celtics vs 76ers (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN) and Nuggets vs Suns (10 p.m. ET). Check out my picks for two 3-point shooters below.
Celtics vs.
76ers
| Prop | Tobias Harris o1.5 3-Pointers (-120) |
| Spread | Celtics -2.5 |
| Time | TV | 7:30 p.m. ET |ESPN |
| Best Line | bet365 |
This prop has hit in five of the 76ers' six playoff games this postseason. Harris also leads Sixers in 3-point percentage, knocking down 50% of his 3s (12-of-24). During the regular season, he was a better shooter at home at 41% while averaging twice as many 3-point makes per game.
Of the remaining eight playoff teams, the Celtics rank seventh in both opponents 3-point makes per game and opponent 3-point shooting percentage. The Celtics are allowing nearly four more 3s per game in playoffs compared to regular season.
Joel Embiid looked tentative in Game 2 after missing nearly two weeks with his knee injury and took just nine shots. His injury could still affect him in Game 3, which means the Sixers' supporting cast will need to step up. Harris is upwards of -600 just to hit one 3-pointer. He has easily been the most consistent Sixers starter so far.
| Prop | Harris Double-Double (+825) |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Harris is a proven rebounder in playoffs, averaging 8.4 rebounds per game in his playoff career with Philly. Harris has averaged 12.2 rebound chances per playoff game and 11 chances against the Celtics.
In Game 2, he pulled down seven boards in 31 minutes despite sitting out the fourth quarter in a blowout. As I mentioned, Joel Embiid is not even close to healthy, which means there should be more rebounds up for grabs. The potential for re-injury to Embiid's knee could means even more minutes for the rest of the 76ers starters.
The most important thing here is the value on these odds — Harris' +825 odds have an implied probability of 10%. In Harris' 46 playoff games with the Sixers, he's has a double-double in 16 games (32.6%), which translates to around +210 odds. So even if you don’t love this prop, there is an odds edge based on historical play.
Nuggets vs.
Suns
| Prop | Kevin Durant o2.5 3-pointers (+135) |
| Spread | Suns -4 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET |ESPN |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Durant topped this line three off the five games the Suns played against the Clippers in the opening round. He leads the team in 3-point attempts per game in the playoffs and is playing an insane 43 minutes per game.
He didn’t hit the over in either game against the Nuggets in this series — he was 2-of-12 on 3s in Game 2, which is likely why were getting a plus number here — but we should still be encouraged based on the volume. With no Chris Paul, Durant and Devin Booker are going to have to play 40-plus minutes in every playoff game and each will likely take upwards off 20 attempts per game.
Suns attempted 23 3s in Game 1, and 31 in Game 2. It still wasn't enough. In the postseason, the Nuggets are averaging eight more 3-point attempts per game and four more makes per game than the Suns.
It's simple: The Suns need to shoot more 3s. Frankly, they have no choice.
