Last season, I did a detailed breakdown each week of the scoring trends I was seeing across the NBA. After a steady increase over the years, there was a noticeable dip in scoring — it fell from 224.2 points per game in the 2020-21 season to 221.2 points per game in 2021-22. The new ball, the new rule changes implemented to prevent drawing fouls, the fatigue from a shortened offseason were all likely contributing factors.
This season, however, scoring is at an all-time high. Average points per game is at 228.8. Overall, the cumulative over/under record is at 483-478-8 (50.3%) – how's that for an efficient market?
This week we're diving back into the totals and betting trends that I'm seeing across the league to see where we can find some value on specific teams down the stretch.
Here's a look at where teams around the league stood entering the week and a break down of league-wide scoring month by month.
- Average points scored per game (228.8) and average closing total (228.0) in the 2022-23 season are at an all-time high. The season average of Offensive Efficiency (114.6) and assists (25.0) are also at an all-time high.
- This season, we saw a boom in scoring beginning in late December. From Dec. 19 through Jan. 16, totals went 120-88-5 (57.7%) to the over. The average points scored per game during that timeframe was 232.0.
- Since returning from All-Star break, defenses are getting better as playoffs loom closer, and unders are 48-38-1 (56.5%).
Teams with highest scoring games (234 and above)
- Kings: Avg: 121.1 | Opp Avg: 118.5 | Total: 239.6
- Warriors: Avg: 118.0 | Opp Avg: 117.1 | Total: 235.1
- Thunder: Avg: 118.2 | Opp Avg: 116.6 | Total: 234.8
- Spurs: Avg: 112.6 | Opp Avg: 121.8 | Total: 234.4
- Lakers: Avg: 116.7 | Opp Avg: 117.6 | Total: 234.3
- Jazz: Avg: 117.0 | Opp Avg: 117.2 | Total: 234.2
Teams with lowest scoring games (224 and below)
- Heat: Avg: 107.9 | Opp Avg: 108.7 | Total: 216.6
- Cavaliers: Avg: 112.0 | Opp Avg: 106.4 | Total: 218.4
- Suns: Avg: 112.9 | Opp Avg: 110.9 | Total: 223.9
- Raptors: Avg: 112.6 | Opp Avg: 112.0 | Total: 224.6
- Magic: Avg: 111.0 | Opp Avg: 113.7 | Total: 224.7
Best Over Teams
- Thunder: 38-26 (59.4%)
- Spurs: 37-27-1 (57.8%)
- Mavericks: 37-28 (56.9%)
- Hawks: 36-28 (56.3%)
- Warriors: 35-28-2 (55.6%)
- 76ers: 35-28 (55.6%)
Best Under Teams
- Hornets: 29-37 (43.9%)
- Grizzlies: 27-35-1 (43.6%)
- Heat: 28-37 (43.1%)
- Bulls: 28-37 (43.1%)
Recent Under Trends
Trend: 15-4 to the under in their previous 19 games
Ja Morant is out indefinitely, but the Grizzlies' struggles on offense began a while ago. The Grizzlies are 14-7 to the under with Steven Adams out of the lineup. Even though he is not a scorer, his impact on the offensive is massive with his ability set screens and secure second chance opportunities.
They have been relying on their defense to keep them afloat — they rank second in Defensive Rating since the All-Star Break. It will be interesting to see how they adapt to Morant and Brandon Clarke's absences.
Trend: 13-2 to the under in their previous 15 games
LaMelo Ball has been shut down for the season. Since the All-Star Break, the Hornets have the third-best Defensive Rating in the league. Mark Williams, an excellent rookie shot blocker and rebounder, has moved into the starting lineup after the Hornets traded Mason Plumlee to the Los Angeles Clippers.
Trend: 8-2 to the under in their previous 10 games
LeBron James's injury is the biggest impact here on offense. Anthony Davis has been healthy and has formed a formidable frontcourt alongside the newly-acquired Jarred Vanderbilt. If D'Angelo Russell misses another game, there should be another nice opportunity to target the under.
Trend: Seven straight unders
The defending champions have locked their opponents down with the No. 1 ranked Defensive Rating since the All-Star break. Stephen Curry has returned to the lineup, so we should likely see some overs coming in soon.
Trend: 6-1 to the under
Without Zion Williamson, the Pelicans offense has struggled. After a promising start to the season, they have an 8-20 record in the 2023 calendar year. Williamson's absence has opened up more playing time for Herb Jones and Larry Nance Jr., two strong defenders who don't provide much on the offensive end.
Recent Over Trends
Trend: 10-2 to the over in their previous 12 games
Light the beam! Team chemistry has been great for this young team, and they are showing the league they were not some early season fluke. Since the All-Star break, the Kings are first in Offensive Rating (113.9) and 28th in Defensive Rating (123.3) and fourth in Pace (102.4). It is worth noting their opponent's defenses have been below average lately, as they faced the Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder twice each during this 12-game timeframe.
Trend: 9-3 to the over in their previous 12 games
It is no shocker that the Mavericks' offense is trending upwards with Luka Doncic and his new running mate Kyrie Irving. Since Irving has joined the team, the Mavericks are 7-2 to the over in games he suits up for.
In their previous 10 games, they are ranked third in Offensive Rating (122.5) and 26th in Defensive Rating (120.5). However, their defense has regressed from last season's campaign. Even though they have no issues scoring, their lack of defense has led to lackluster results in the wins column.
Trend: Four straight overs
They've been able to do this with Shai-Gilgeous Alexander out for a few of these games. This young team loves to run (third in Pace) and have built up an excellent group of young scorers that makes them the league's best "overs" team.
