Rockets vs. Pacers Prediction, Picks for Tuesday, Feb. 6
Here's everything you need to know about Rockets vs. Pacers on Tuesday, Feb. 6 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Rockets were dealt a crushing blow on Monday when it was announced Fred VanVleet would be out for the foreseeable future with an adductor strain, and on Tuesday the blows may keep coming against a hungry Pacers team returning home to Indy to start building themselves back up.
Can Houston overcome the loss of VanVleet to make a game of this, or will the Pacers' high-octane offense prove to be too much for this squad?
Let's get to our Rockets vs. Pacers prediction and pick.
Rockets vs. Pacers Prediction
Pick: Rockets +7.5 (-110)
Rockets Betting Outlook
It's hard to overstate the importance of VanVleet to this team. He's one of the anchors of the seventh-best defense in the NBA by the efficiency numbers, and he's one of the lone players on the roster who can create offense. This was already a team in the bottom third of the league when it came to points per 100 possessions, and without VanVleet's shooting and playmaking ability things are about to get all the more grim.
Let's try to be positive, however, about a Houston team which is now without arguably its best player. It still ranks first in 3-point defense this season, and while VanVleet has been a huge reason he's hardly the only one who has locked in on that end. Aaron Holiday should be able to step in and produce, ranking in the 85th percentile in estimated defensive plus/minus, and Dillon Brooks and Amen Thompson are still doing a good job at contesting jumpers. On top of that, this frontcourt is still healthy — and it ranks 10th in rim defense.
There's still hope that this defense can remain above-average, but the loss of VanVleet will be devastating to this team's prospects in terms of scoring the ball. There will be more emphasis on scoring around the rim with Alperen Sengun, and in matchups like Tuesday's, it'll put this team behind the proverbial 8-ball. Indiana is ranked 11th in rim defense this season, allowing just 65.4% of shots to fall within four feet, and while the Pacers have been vulnerable against the outside shot for most of the season, their numbers over the last month have been much-improved. Houston is shooting a poor 35.9% from downtown, anyway, so it's unlikely to threaten in that regard.
Pacers Betting Outlook
The Pacers are also dealing with a huge injury to their point guard, but the outlook is far less grim. Tyrese Haliburton, who probably shouldn't be playing at this point in time due to a hamstring issue, has been questionable coming into every game since his return and has been on a pretty steep restriction over the last four, playing roughly 21 minutes per game and watching his incredibly efficient offensive numbers dwindle as a result.
It's been a big reason why this team has lost three of the last four, but aside from an 11-point home defeat to Sacramento it's hard to be up in arms about this team's output given its schedule. The Rockets do present yet another threat on the defensive end, but without VanVleet perhaps there's a bit more room to breathe.
Indiana has thrived from outside, which is still a slight cause for concern given the Rockets' stable of defenders in the backcourt, but the work of this defense should ultimately make up for any dip on offense. The Pacers currently own the third-best rim defense in the NBA according to Cleaning the Glass, and while their opponents' field goal percentage is up around two points over the last month, they still rank third in the league over that period in time.
Rockets vs. Pacers Picks, Odds
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 242.5 -110/-110 | +240 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 242.5 -110/-110 | -300 |
The Pacers have done well to cover in two of their four games since Haliburton returned on a minutes restriction — and did beat the spread by a comfortable margin last time out against the Hornets despite coming in as 7.5-point favorites. They also have a pretty significant edge here given their strong defense in the frontcourt, but might the market be swinging this matchup too heavily in their favor?
I'm inclined to believe they are. Yes, the Rockets have been dreadful as road underdogs this season, but the Pacers are a pedestrian 7-7 against the spread as home favorites and currently in a state of flux with the all-important Haliburton not giving this team the incredible production we've seen all year. Myles Turner should do well to neutralize Sengun a bit here, but I still believe in the rest of this team to keep this close and earn a cover.
Holiday is more than capable of stepping into VanVleet's role on the defensive end, and this team also has the luxury of throwing Brooks on Siakam to further even the score here. With Halibuton limited and the point guard position being defended well, I think this one is going to be a pretty cagey affair.
I like the under here, but I'd rather take the points with the Rockets. They were beginning to show some signs of life prior to the VanVleet news, and at least in the interim I think they'll continue to build off of their positive play before ultimately they realize how hard they've got it without their lead man. It's not like Indiana presents an incredible threat on the defensive end aside from their rim protection, either, so there's a path here for Houston to make up for some of what it's missing without VanVleet.
