I will admit it — I have never been this scared to bet an NBA Finals game.
It's the Miami Heat doing it to me. There are just way too many variables.
Is Jimmy Butler going to go ham? Who is going to show up? Vincent? Strus? Lowry? Love? Now, we're throwing in Tyler Herro, for god's sake?
Here's my best shot at it.
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in Nevada, New York or Ontario.
1. Moneyline
I think the Nuggets are absolutely winning this game. Seeing LeBron struggle at altitude during the Western Conference Finals really calcified that as a distinct factor, especially this deep in the playoffs, when both teams are fatigued and dealing with outsized ailments.
For an altitude stat, I dialed up the Action Network's head of stats Evan Abrams, who gave me this banger: Teams who played at home and then go into the Denver altitude in their next game are…2-24 straight up this year and 28-100 straight up since 2017!
Take Nuggets ML. They're winning the title tonight.
2. Spread
This regular line is at Heat +8.5, Nuggets -8.5 at BetMGM.
If you look at this year's playoffs, the Nuggets won their games by an average of 11.8 points. The Heat lost their games by 11.2 points. Pretty consistent.
And teams that have lost two straight games in the playoffs are 20 games over .500 ATS in the next game since 2005 (297-277) and when that scenario happens in games 5-7, those teams are 92-72-3.
I'm still going to err on the side of caution with a team that I think will go down tonight.
Buy the Heat up to +12.5.
3. Player Total
I've really been sweating out player totals throughout the Finals and I just feel like I can't touch any Heat players. I'm worried about Herro taking minutes and points and feel like the margins are so thin. There's only one player in this game that I feel like I can rely on to score and that's Nikola Jokic.
He has averaged 29.5 points in his last 10 playoff games and when he was off — like when he got into foul trouble against the Lakers in Game 2 — he still scored 23.
I'll be conservative and take the over on 26.5 points.
For this three-legger, you'll get +250 at BetMGM. Go get it.
