Spurs vs. Timberwolves Pick, Prediction for Wednesday, Dec. 6
Here's everything you need to know about Spurs vs. Timberwolves on Wednesday, Dec. 6 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Spurs have fallen off a cliff over the past month, while the Timberwolves continue to surge after a strong start to the season.
Let's get to our Spurs vs. Timberwolves prediction and pick.
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction
Pick: Timberwolves -3.5 3Q | Rudy Gobert over 11.5 rebounds
Spurs Betting Outlook
This game, on paper, is what you'd call a stay-busy fight in the combat world. (Pardon the comparison, I also cover boxing and MMA here.)
That is when an established or rising contender or champion is facing an overmatch opponent in an effort to remain active. Typically, the stay-busy opponent is someone with a less than impressive record that, in some cases, maybe on a losing streak arriving into said fight.
Occasionally, stay-busy fights can evolve into trap fights, where said overmatched opponent pulls off the previously unforeseen upset. The overmatched team is the Spurs, one of the worst in the NBA this season (3-16 straight up, 7-12 against the spread), but they have rookie sensation Victor Wembanyama, so this game will be nationally televised. Wembanyama should channel his inner Jabrill Peppers when he talks to his fellow Frenchman Rudy Gobert after the game.
The Spurs looked poised to be a surprise team after beating the Phoenix Suns two consecutive times in Phoenix and were 3-2 after that early stretch, then lost 14 straight games. Yes, they went 1-14 over the course of November, only to be outdone by the Detroit Pistons who have lost 17 straight.
The Spurs have some young players worth monitoring beyond just Wemby. Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan are the bones of a young nucleus that could be good in the future, but they're not yet. Far from that, in fact. The Spurs play at the third-fastest in Pace (102.3), but are 28th in Offensive Rating (107.3), last in Net Rating (-12.1) and commit the fourth-most turnovers per 100 possessions in the NBA.
Vassell (knee) and Zach Collins (thumb) are both on the injury report, but listed as probable to play.
Timberwolves Betting Outlook
The Timberwolves are the polar opposite of the Spurs in many ways with the best record in the NBA (15-4 SU). They just produced the NBA's Coach of the Month for November and are terrorizing legitimately good NBA teams led by a burgeoning superstar in Anthony Edwards. They were 14-2 in November and are coming off a four-game winning streak.
Defense, defense, defense is the motto for this team. They're elite by many defensive metrics ranking first in opponent field goal percentage (43%) opponent effective field goal percentage (49.4%) and Defensive Rating (106.7) this season.
Plus they have a soon-to-be superstar in Anthony Edwards who practiced Monday and is expected to return tonight after injuring his hip. Jaden McDaniels, their best perimeter defender, is still sidelined with an ankle injury but getting close to returning.
Rudy Gobert also appears to be closer to his peak Utah Jazz self than he was last season, meaning he's less overrated now. Karl-Anthony Towns is also an efficiency monster once again from an offensive standpoint, making for a quality second option for now.
Spurs vs Timberwolves Picks, Odds
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -105 | 230.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -115 | 230.5 -110o / -110u | -700 |
Occasionally, stay-busy fights can evolve into trap fights, where said overmatched opponent pulls off the previously unforeseen upset. I don't see that happening here.
The Timberwolves are -12 (-110 in multiple books), and the numbers would tell you they should cover. My hesitation is that they only average 112.2 points at home despite their 9-1 record at the crib. They've allowed exactly 1,000 points at home, meaning their average margin of victory is 12.2 at home. They've held five teams under 100, including the Miami Heat, Denver Nuggets, UtahJazz twice and Philadelphia 76ers.
The Spurs, on the other hand, score just 107.8 points per game on the road and have been held under 100 twice in nine games. They allow 126.6 points on the road, though they've allowed north of 126 just twice, to Denver (132) and Indiana (152), respectively — neither of whom play like the T-Wolves.
Edwards is on track to play, and if he does, I like the T-Wolves to win and cover -12, but out of fear of a backdoor cover, I'm taking the T-Wolves -3.5 in the third quarter at -114 on FanDuel. The Wolves have covered this in four of their last five at home: 35-19 vs. the Jazz, 23-17 against the Thunder, 34-30 vs. the 76ers and 35-19 vs. the Knicks.
Prop wise, I like Rudy Gobert over 11.5 rebounds at -125 on BetMGM. He's gotten it in three straight, the Spurs shoot the worst percentage in the league, and it allows room for Minnesota to clean up the glass — Gobert especially.
