Timberwolves vs. Knicks Prediction, Picks Best Bet for Monday
Here's everything you need to know about Timberwolves vs. Knicks on Monday, Jan. 1 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Knicks made a rather surprising trade just a couple of days ago, shipping away RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley to Toronto in exchange for OG Anunoby. After a night without him, which saw the Knicks keep pace offensively with the Indiana Pacers in a loss, they'll be excited to debut their newest wing as we begin the new year on Monday.
Standing in their way will be a physical Timberwolves team which has won seven of nine and possesses the best defense in the NBA.
Let's get to our Timberwolves vs. Knicks prediction and pick.
Timberwolves vs. Knicks Prediction
Pick: Knicks ML (+100)
Timberwolves Betting Outlook
As noted above, this Timberwolves team has been all about defense this season, leading the way in efficiency on that end of the floor over the course of the regular season and maintaining some excellent numbers over the last 10 games. While that's all well and good, Minnesota continues to lag behind on the offensive end, ranking 23rd over the last 10 games and 18th for the year.
It's hard to pinpoint the best part of this Minnesota defense given its top-10 ranks across the board, but for the purposes of this matchup we'll highlight the performance of this backcourt, which has ranked fifth against the three and fifth against the mid-range jumper according to Cleaning the Glass. Minnesota is also 11th in points per play allowed in transition and first in points per possession.
Offensively, the Timberwolves have looked to score at the rim and just outside of four feet, though their best marks have come in the 3-point department where they've shot 39.3% according to Cleaning the Glass. They're also eighth in points added per possession in transition and have been quite dangerous there despite running out on the break at a relatively low frequency.
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Knicks Betting Outlook
The Knicks have now lost three in a row with their defeat in Indiana on Saturday, but things may be looking up. The team is set to install Anunoby on the wing which, they hope, will give a much-needed upgrade to their outside shooting after Barrett continued to struggle from deep. On top of that, the team shot 45.9% from deep against the Pacers in a game which saw Donte DiVincenzo step into a larger role and knock down seven of 11 looks from 3.
Threes are the name of the game for the Knicks, who rank ninth from beyond the arc according to Cleaning the Glass. This team has had the tendency to live and die by the shot, and most of the time they're winning they're scoring from outside. With this it's worth noting the Knicks are shooting a sparkling 38.9% from 3 at home compared to 36.8% on the road, so we should expect the combination of Anunoby and home cooking to produce a formidable attack on offense for the Knicks.
Another noteworthy nugget here is that the Knicks are one of the teams which utilizes transition basketball more than most, ranking inside the top 10 in frequency, which should prove difficult against this Minnesota team. The good news is that, even if some shots aren't falling, the Knicks remain the best rebounding team in the NBA by the numbers even without Mitchell Robinson, which should neutralize yet another strength of the Timberwolves.
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Timberwolves vs. Knicks Picks, Odds
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 223.5 -105o / -115u | -115 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 223.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
While the Timberwolves have done a bang-up job everywhere on the floor this season, it's worth noting that they've faced 3-point shots at the seventh-highest frequency in the league and shots at the rim at the third-highest frequency. They've hardly had to defend against the mid-range jumper, which happens to be one of the strengths of the Knicks.
For all the accolades that Rudy Gobert has defensively, the strength of his game lies in protecting the rim and it isn't really in matchup defense, which is a question the Knicks will certainly be asked of the big man with Julius Randle.
This line screams Knicks to me. They're 6-5-1 against the spread at home this season, and that's been largely due to the fact that their shooting has been so much better in New York. With Anunoby providing a spark in the backcourt and taking away unproductive Barrett minutes, we should see New York look markedly better on offense, even against a strong defense.
We can also expect the Knicks to have some level of success from mid-range given the small sample size that comes with Minnesota's above-average numbers, and all that amounts to a win for the home underdogs.
Pick: Knicks ML (+100)
