Warriors vs Suns Pick & Prediction
Here's everything you need to know about Warriors vs Suns on Tuesday, Dec. 12 — our expert prediction and betting picks for tonight.
The Golden State Warriors visit the Phoenix Suns in a game littered with storylines. Chris Paul is expected to return and suit up against his old team again. Additionally, Bradley Beal will make his return for the Suns after missing the last month due to a back injury.
Let's get to our Warriors vs Suns pick and prediction.
Warriors vs Suns Prediction
Pick: Suns -3
Warriors Betting Outlook
The Golden State Warriors are will likely have both Paul (illness) and Klay Thompson (illness) for this game. Paul is expected to play and Thompson practiced on Monday. The Warriors can use them both to help with the team's overall depth.
The Warriors have been underwhelming this season. They are 18th in Net Rating (+0.5) and aren't shining on either end of the floor as they are middle of the pack in both Offensive and Defensive Rating, per Basketball Reference. This may be in part due to them playing the third-toughest Strength of Schedule.
The difficulty this season has been that their starters are generally a net negative — Stephen Curry (-2.0), Thompson (-5.6), Kevon Looney (-5.9), Draymond Green (-7.5) and Andrew Wiggins (-14.6), per Cleaning the Glass. Curry and Green have essentially never carried a negative Net Rating throughout their careers, so this is quite an unfamiliar circumstance. The Warriors' inability to find consistent success with their primary rotation has been a struggle.
Suns Betting Outlook
This is the first game of a back-to-back set for the Phoenix Suns with their next game being against the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday. With Kevin Durant ruled out (ankle), the Suns won't see their Big 3 in action and will have to wait a little longer until the trio is healthy at the same time. Because of that, Bradley Beal's return should be welcomed and his scoring and versatility will instantly provide this team with another potent offensive weapon. I dove into some of the player prop implications in my Weekly Player Props Forecast.
The Suns are 12-10 with the 14th-best Net Rating (+2.1) and have dealt with a number of injuries this season. Even if all of their stars play in this game, the Suns will still be without Grayson Allen (groin).
The Suns have found significant success with their stars. Devin Booker (+14.0), Jusuf Nurkic (+11.2) and Durant (+8.3) have all dominated in their minutes this season, per Cleaning the Glass. Additionally, those lineups have been dynamic as each of Phoenix's six most used lineups have positive Net Ratings. The Suns' best players have raised the floor and adding Beal into the mix will only improve the team.
Warriors vs Suns Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -108 | 231.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -112 | 231.5 -110o / -110u | -118 |
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This matchup pits two teams against each other that have had different struggles this season. The Warriors have had immense difficulty finding a rhythm, even with their starters, while the Suns have had difficulty keeping their stars on the court.
Phoenix has been a bit fortunate considering it has had the easiest Strength of Schedule this season. However, this matchup is tough for the Warriors. The Suns have won both prior matchups this season, but Draymond Green didn't play in either game.
Phoenix has been better with its stars on the floor, regardless of the combination. Additionally, the Warriors have been relatively porous defensively from midrange — an area of the floor in which the Suns dominate. Even though Green is playing and Durant's status is in flux, I will lay the points with the Suns.
