As we head into the Elite Eight, the slate tightens, but the edges don’t disappear. Coaching mismatches, rest spots and repeatable tournament notes continue to show up — just in more condensed, higher-leverage spots.
From elite ATS coaches still dancing to teams navigating short turnarounds, there’s still plenty to mine beneath the surface.
Here are my March Madness betting trends, stats and notes for the Elite Eight.
Three At The Top
Unique Field
We still have Duke, Michigan and Arizona left in the Elite Eight after they had +300, +350 and +400 odds to win it all entering the tournament.
This is just the second time in the seeding era (since 1979) we have three teams in the Elite 8 who had 4-1 odds or shorter entering the start of the tournament — back in 2001 we also had three teams with Duke, Michigan State and Stanford, with Duke winning it all.
This is mostly due to big favorites winning in the Sweet 16. Favorites of 6+ points went 4-0 SU in the Sweet 16 this year, as it also did last year — the first time in the seeding era favs of 6+ pts went 4-0 SU or better in consecutive years.
Favorites of 6 points or more are 31-4 SU and 21-14 ATS in the NCAA Tournament — over the last two years, these big favorites are 63-6 SU and 43-26 ATS entering the Elite Eight this year. 4+ point favorites are 79-11 SU and 54-36 ATS in the tourney since the start of last year.
Big Lines
All Four Games
The average spread across all four 2026 Elite Eight games is 6.6 points — the second-highest mark of any Elite Eight since 2000, trailing only 2021 (7.6). Just as striking is the floor: the tightest line of the four games is 5.5 points, the second-highest minimum spread of any Elite Eight in the last 30 years, again behind only 2021 (6.5).
In fact, 2021 and 2026 are the only two Elite Eights in the last three decades where every single game carried a spread of at least five points.
Longshot Left
Unique Field
What are the highest odds to win the title entering the NCAA Tournament since seeding began in 1978? Only four teams listed above 20-1 entering March Madness have won the title in that same time frame:
2014 Connecticut
100-1 pre-tournament
1985 Villanova
35-1 pre-tournament
2011 Connecticut
25-1 pre-tournament
1983 NC State
25-1 pre-tournament
We still have two longshots left in the field from before the opening round, with Iowa and Tennessee. If either cut down the nets this year they would be making history:
(9) Iowa, 250-1
(6) Tennessee, 100-1
Conference Superlatives
King of Kings
Here are the tournaments trends by conference for this year. The Big Ten and Big 12 lead the way, going 21-10 ATS against all other conferences so far during this year's tournament.
NCAA Tournament trends by conference:
Big Ten: 14-8 ATS
Big 12: 11-6 ATS
SEC: 13-10 ATS
Big East: 4-3 ATS
ACC: 3-10 ATS
(Min. 5 games)
The ACC is 3-10 ATS in this year's NCAA Tournament with just Duke left in the field. With a minimum ten tourney games, here are the worst ATS win pct for a single conference since 1985:
1996 ACC: 2-10 ATS, 16.7%
2017 ACC: 4-14 ATS, 22.2%
2026 ACC: 3-10 ATS, 23.1%
Matchups: Saturday Games
(9) Iowa vs. (3) Illinois
Iowa is the 11th team to enter the Elite Eight after having 250-1 or higher odds to win it all entering the NCAA Tournament. Of those 11 teams, only two others had pulled off a double-digit spread upset: 2022 St. Peter’s and 2011 VCU.
Iowa entered the tournament with 12 losses, third-most of those eleven 250-1 or higher teams, behind just 2017 Xavier and 2016 Syracuse, both with 13 losses.
Brad Underwood has coached in 20 total NCAA Tournament games with Illinois, Oklahoma State and Stephen F. Austin — in those games, his teams have performed better ATS when time to prep:
• Round 64/Sweet Sixteen: 9-3 ATS
• Round 32/Elite Eight: 3-5 ATS
Iowa and Drake have competed well under Ben McCollum on short prep (two days or less), going 11-7 SU. When he’s a dog of 3+ in this spot, he’s 5-1 ATS.
Illinois is outscoring its opponents by 22.3 PPG entering the Elite Eight — the same mark as Arizona has beaten its opponents by. Since 1985, only three teams, seeded third or worse, have outscored their opponents by 67+ pts entering an Elite Eight: 2026 (3) Illinois, 2012 (7) Florida and 2008 (3) Louisville. Both Florida and Louisville lost in the Elite Eight.
Illinois beat Houston in the Elite Eight, with the game played in Texas. This is the 13th time since 1985 a team has defeated an opponent in the Sweet Sixteen in their home state — those teams are 4-8 SU in the quick turn Elite Eight. Even favorites are just 3-5 SU in the Elite Eight in this spot.
Illinois has dominated Iowa in recent meetings. They are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Hawkeyes dating back to the start of COVID in 2020. As a favorite, Illinois has beaten Iowa in nine straight meetings outright.
Since seeding began in 1978, every NCAA champion to play in a conference tournament won at least one game in that appetizer for March Madness. In that span, eight champions never actually had a conference tournament:
If this trend holds, here are some of the candidates this eliminates this year that are still in the field: Michigan State, Illinois, and Alabama.
(2) Purdue vs. (1) Arizona
Arizona crushed Arkansas, scoring 109 points and covering in the Sweet Sixteen. Since 2005, teams to score 100+ points in the Round 64, Sweet Sixteen, or Final Four are 19-9-1 ATS in that quick turn next game.
Purdue was 30-1 to win it all entering the tournament as a 2-seed. Since 1985, we’ve seen 16 top-2 seeds enter the tournament with future odds of 25-1 or longer — none made the title game, with one making the Final Four: Minnesota in 1997. Purdue can join the Gophers.
In quick-turn games — Round 32, Elite Eight, Title game — Matt Painter is 11-5 ATS, with the over 11-5 in those games.
Painter and Purdue have faced seven 1-seeds in the NCAA Tournament — it's 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in those games.
Arizona is favored over Purdue by about 6 pts. Under Matt Painter, Purdue has played 23 non-conference games as an underdog of 4 points or more — they are 2-21 SU and 8-15 ATS in those games.
Purdue was the preseason favorite entering the regular season and is now a win away from the Final Four. Here are the preseason favorites to make the Final Four since 2009: 2021 Baylor and Gonzaga, 2014 and 2015 Kentucky and 2009 UNC.
Matt Painter is 28-15 ATS in 43 total games in the NCAA Tournament. Painter is 23-7 ATS in the Round of 64 and 32 and just 5-8 ATS in the Sweet Sixteen or later.
Since Arizona won the national title in 1997, no team west of Texas has won it all. We only have one team left in the field that fits this criteria … of course, it's Arizona.
Matchups: Sunday Games
(6) Tennessee vs. (1) Michigan
For the first time in his coaching career, Rick Barnes starts an NCAA Tournament 3-0 SU and ATS, as Tennessee covers in all three games.
When leading at the half in road or neutral-site games, Michigan has won 20 consecutive games outright dating back to February of 2025.
Michigan is the 8th team to score 90+ points in each of its 1st three games of the NCAA Tournament since 1985. Only 1 of the previous 7 went on to win it all — 1989 Michigan.
A Rick Barnes coached team has won two games as an underdog before Friday night vs. Iowa State. His teams lost SU and ATS in their next tourney game (which was Sweet 16 prior to this season).
Michigan as a program rarely gets upset in the NCAA Tournament. As a favorite of 7 pts or more in the seeding era, Michigan is 23-1 SU. As a favorite of above 8 pts on the closing line, they are 20-0 SU.
As a favorite of 6+ pts, Dusty May is 32-1 SU and 26-7 ATS vs. non-conference opponents as a head coach with Michigan and FAU.
(2) UConn vs. (1) Duke
Duke has received a one seed 16 times and they have never lost in the first weekend. In 8 of the 15 previous tournaments, they made the Final Four.
Duke has also been a strong under team in the NCAA Tournament under Jon Scheyer, with ten of his 14 tournament games finishing under the total. In 16 Duke non-conference games this season, the under is 12-4.
Duke allowed 75 pts to St. John’s, with Red Storm 41% from three. Last two seasons, Duke is 11-0 SU (7-4 ATS) after allowing 75+ pts in their last game.
When Cameron Boozer deson’t turn it over, Duke is hard to beat. They are 25-0 SU this season when Boozer has fewer than 4 turnovers.
Under Jon Scheyer, Duke is 23-5 SU and 18-10 ATS on just one day rest between games, including 15-0 SU and 10-5 ATS over the last two seasons.
Dan Hurley is 9-0 ATS in Sweet 16 or later & 13-0 ATS in Round 32 or later with UConn. His 9-0 ATS record is best of any head coach in seeding era, next-best is Brad Stevens at 7-1 ATS.
Hurley has been listed as an underdog in three NCAA Tournament games, two with Rhode Island and one with UConn, he is 0-3 SU, but 2-1 ATS in those games.
Quick turn games have been where UConn thrives. In the Round of 32, Elite Eight & National Title, Dan Hurley is 8-0 ATS with Huskies. Dating back to the 2008-09 NCAA Tournament, the Huskies are 32-7 ATS in the dance.
Hurley has been good early in big NCAA Tournament games. In Sweet 16 or later, Hurley is now 9-0 1H moneyline and 7-1-1 1H ATS.
