The first day of the Sweet 16 features the lone remaining double-digit seed (Texas), the preseason No. 1 team (Purdue) and a juicy late-night matchup between Illinois and Houston.
With that in mind, our staff has multiple picks to get your betting card set.
Here's our NCAA Tournament picks, including Sweet 16 best bets for Thursday, March 26.
NCAA Tournament Picks for Thursday's Sweet 16 Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 9:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texas vs. Purdue
We're lacking a Cinderella team again this season, but the closest squad to that label is the No. 11-seeded Texas Longhorns, who came out of the First Four to upset Gonzaga in the previous round.
The Longhorns will have to do battle with the former No. 1 team in the land, Purdue.
With the over/under as low as 148.5, our Action PRO projections have both teams clearing the 150-point mark, with an estimated 152.3 total points. That creates a nice +3.9% edge on this pick, as of writing.
PRO isn't shying away from the Longhorns as an "over" team. The models liked Gonzaga and Texas to go over the total in the last round to no avail.
Due to the overall pace, and Purdue's offensive efficiency and inability to defend 2s on the other end, take the over.
Pick: Over 148.5
Here's more PRO picks from Alex for Thursday's matchups:
Texas vs. Purdue
I don't need to go deep into this one. I thought the Purdue line was going to steam up at -7.5, getting closer to -9.5/-10. Ultimately, as of writing, it's still at -6.5, which is good news for us.
The Boilermakers have everything on the offensive end to drag the Longhorns into the deep end of the pool, and that's been a big part of their recent run (winning the Big Ten Tournament and reaching this point of the Big Dance).
This is something you need to keep in mind with all of these teams: Your path is just as important as your personnel and how you're playing. Nobody could knock down any perimeter shots against Texas, and I believe this Purdue team is going to be the unit that finally exposes the Longhorns.
I'm not saying the Longhorns are lucky by any stretch, but this is just a bad matchup for Sean Miller's bunch.
I want to grab the right number, and, at least in my opinion, that's below eight.
Pick: Purdue -6.5 (Play to -7.5)
Iowa vs. Nebraska
By Joshua Nunn
This line came out with Nebraska listed as a 2-point favorite and a total of 134.5. I like Iowa to keep this game close with a chance to win late.
I simply can't overstate how impressive Iowa's win over Florida was.
The Gators were surging offensively and had completely erased a 12-point second-half lead while taking a two-possession advantage with five minutes to play.
Iowa struggled to rebound late, and its best player (Bennett Stirtz) was 0-for-9 from deep.
The way this team locked in on defense in the final five minutes was ultra-impressive, and if the Hawkeyes knock down some shots here, they'll have a serious chance to win this game.
Meanwhile, in its two games against Iowa, Nebraska has struggled to find good looks from deep and hit them. The Huskers are a combined 15-of-51 from beyond the arc against the Hawkeyes and have turned the ball over on 18% of possessions.
If the outside shots aren't falling, we could see long stretches of scoreless droughts for the Huskers here.
Enough of the “fun story” talk about Iowa. The Hawkeyes have shown defensive toughness and grit throughout the NCAA Tournament despite not playing their best offense.
I think we see a bit of positive shooting regression from Stirtz and the offense as a whole. In a low-possession, low-scoring game, making 2-3 more shots could make all the difference.
If this game came down to a last-second shot, it wouldn't be a shock. I'll take Iowa +1.5 here.
Pick: Iowa +1.5
Arkansas vs. Arizona
By Stuckey
The Wildcats opened at -9.5, and I didn't love it at that number. However, it's come down to -7.5 (at the time of writing), and Arkansas will be a pretty popular 'dog, meaning this could get to -7 or lower.
I have a lot of respect for John Calipari as an underdog. Usually, Cal has a ton of talent, and it's hard to blow teams out like that in March.
However, I think this comes down to two things. First, I think Arkansas is going to get annihilated on the glass. Second, I think Arizona will get more shots up.
Arkansas is 275th in the country in 2-point defense, meaning you can get to the rim and score on the Razorbacks. Meanwhile, on the other side, Arizona doesn't let you get near the rim.
Also, Arizona eliminates transition, so Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas aren't going to be able to get easy buckets.
Arkansas has been running at a +10% net 3-point delta over the past 11 games since mid-February, and I don't know if it can necessarily keep that up.
And if there's foul trouble, Arkansas could have some issues since it doesn't have much depth. The Razorbacks will probably get Nick Pringle back — which could help some — but it might not be enough.
If you look at the common opponents that these teams played this season, Arkansas is 1-5 and Arizona is 5-1.
Arizona is 7-1 against the top 15 in Bart Torvik while sitting at No. 1 overall in the metrics. The Wildcats have been dominant on neutral courts, and I think they have a coaching and schematic advantage.
Acuff scares me, obviously, but I think Arizona just has too much of an advantage inside.
Pick: Arizona -7.5
