The Purdue Boilermakers play the Arizona Wildcats in the Elite 8 of the NCAA Tournament in San Jose, California, on Saturday, March 28. Tip-off is set for 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS.
Arizona is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -255. Meanwhile, Purdue is the underdog at +5.5 with a moneyline of +205. The over/under sits at 153.5 total points.
Here’s my Purdue vs. Arizona prediction and college basketball picks for Saturday, March 28.
Purdue vs Arizona Prediction, Picks
My Pick: Over 152.5
My Purdue vs Arizona best bet is on both teams to go over the total. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Purdue vs Arizona Odds, Line, Spread
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | +215 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | -267 |
- Purdue vs Arizona Spread: Arizona -6, Purdue +6
- Purdue vs Arizona Over/Under: 153.5
- Purdue vs Arizona Moneyline: Purdue ML +215, Arizona ML -267
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Purdue vs Arizona Elite 8 Preview
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue is now playing in its second Elite Eight in the last three years and its third in the last seven tournaments, thanks to Trey Kaufman-Renn's tip-in with 0.7 seconds left to defeat Texas.
I had the under in the Purdue/Texas game due to how both teams' defenses have been playing recently, and unfortunately for me and everyone who tailed the bet, both teams combined to shoot 50% from the field.
Purdue's offense has been one of the best — and is currently the best — in the country.
The Boilermakers rank in the 90th-plus percentile for points per possession in seven offensive categories, per Synergy. They're in the 99th percentile in both spot-up and post-up shots, 98th percentile on cuts, 96th percentile in transition, 92nd percentile in pick-and-roll man, 92nd percentile off-screens and 91st percentile in miscellaneous plays.
If you're curious, the most inefficient shot for Purdue is from the pick-and-roll ball-handler, where it ranks in the 25th percentile in points per possession.
Kaufman-Renn's effort has been vital to the team's success.
It's no fluke he made the biggest shot of the night. His ability to grab offensive rebounds in traffic and score is just a piece of the puzzle that makes him so valuable.
His right-hand hook shot over the left shoulder on a post-up and his runner in the paint off short rolls put opponents' defenses in pretzels. If there's no help on the roll, Kaufman-Renn scores, but if the defense helps too much, it leaves shooters like Fletcher Loyer — who's shooting 60% from 3 in the NCAA Tournament — open.
Arizona Wildcats Betting Preview
Arizona is in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2015 and the 12th time in program history.
In its Sweet 16 win over Arkansas, Arizona became the first team in NCAA Tournament history to have six players score 14 points or more in the same game.
That's who Arizona has been all year: balanced scoring with Brayden Burries leading the way.
Five players average 10-plus points with two key bench pieces, Tobe Awaka and Anthony Dell'Orso, averaging around nine points per game.
Arizona has had an efficient offense all season, but since the start of the Big 12 Tournament, it has gotten even better.
The Wildcats rank 36th in effective field-goal percentage, but since the start of the Big 12 Tournament, they have the 14th-ranked eFG%.
Their ability to put paint pressure on opposing defenses leads to high percentage 2s or trips to the free-throw line due to their rim pressure.
Once a defense completely collapses, Arizona has the ability to knock down a timely 3 to keep the defense honest.
Though they're 363rd in 3PA/FGA, they've shot 37% as a team from 3 on the year and 46% from 3 in their last six games.
Purdue vs ArizonaNCAA Tournament Pick
Purdue's offense has a massive test in front of it with the size and physicality of this Arizona team. Staying out of foul trouble is vital for the Boilermakers to stay in this game and put points on the board.
Braden Smith has struggled to shoot the 3-ball well recently, shooting 23% from 3 in his last seven games, but his ability to create high-quality looks for others will continue to be there.
Both Smith and Jaden Bradley like to get to their pull-up midrange game, and both shots should be available with both defenses playing drop coverage at times.
For Arizona, it doesn't matter who has the hot hand; it's so well-balanced in scoring, and it's coming off a game where it scored 109 points on five made 3s.
I expect Koa Peat to be a matchup problem with his athleticism as the roll man in the pick-and-roll.
My Pick: Over 152.5
