Arizona Wildcats vs Oklahoma Sooners Odds
| Arizona Wildcats Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Oklahoma Sooners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
Let's take a look at the Arizona Wildcats vs. Oklahoma Sooners odds and make a pick for Thursday night's Alamo Bowl.
The Alamo Bowl readies for its 32nd game with high expectations of providing the barn-burner that college football fans love to watch.
Three of the past 20 games have gone to overtime, with TCU vs. Oregon in 2016 providing one of the wilder gambling box scores in history.
With previous conference representation from the Big Ten and Southwest, the San Antonio affair moved to a Big 12 and Pac-12 event in 2010. Bowl-makers lured two more explosive offenses in 2023, as one team enters the Big 12 while the other exits from the conference.
Second-year head coach Brent Venables led a bounce-back year for Oklahoma. Exceeding a preseason win total of 9.5, the Sooners' improvement on defense made all the difference this season.
Offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby has moved onto the head-coaching position with Mississippi State, elevating former North Texas head coach Seth Littrell to the position. With the dawn of a new era at quarterback, Oklahoma will give all consumers a full preview of the team set to join the SEC.
As Oklahoma leaves the conference, Arizona is set to break away from the Pac-12 to take the Sooners' place. The Wildcats had a breakthrough season under Action Network Coach of the Year Jedd Fisch.
Arizona covered more than any other team in college football, owning a 10-2 mark against the spread. Led by a freshman quarterback and an explosive set of skill players, Arizona was the surprise team of the Pac-12.
These two offenses are set to go head-to-head in a bowl game that historically provides the best of college football entertainment.
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona's season began with a closing win total of five, only for the Wildcats to upset ranked Oregon State, UCLA and Utah teams.
Arizona proved to be an offensive force after making the switch to quarterback Noah Fifita. The freshman signal-caller ended the season with 23 passing touchdowns to just five interceptions, but he had more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws.
Fifita was highly successful and explosive against all coverages, utilizing an elite stable of targets, including wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan and running back Jonah Coleman.
The Territorial Cup stays in Tucson 🏆
Noah Fifita’s 527 passing yards vs. ASU sets program's single-game record as No. 15 Arizona scores 59 on Arizona State. Highlights ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/ByPLXIZIfC
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) November 26, 2023
On the line, backup Joseph Borjon produced 37 snaps this season at the blindside tackle position, which could limit Arizona's success in the inside and outside zone read rushing attack.
Defensive coordinator Johnny Nansen moved the needle for Arizona this season, finishing top-45 in both Defensive Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
The Wildcats improved in terms of limiting explosives while playing in a conference containing the best offenses in the nation. Arizona was the best team in the red zone, ranking 12th in defensive scoring efficiency.
Oklahoma Sooners
Littrell spoke about not changing the offensive system Lebby left behind, but rather implementing his flavor of the Air Raid in the upcoming spring practices.
With Dillon Gabriel off to Oregon via the transfer portal, all eyes in Norman turn to five-star blue-chip quarterback Jackson Arnold. The true freshman is a projected first-round NFL Draft pick with the ability to run the RPO while utilizing accurate touch passing.
Jackson Arnold is going to be really good at Oklahoma for a long time
pic.twitter.com/hUjcNiygMC— J.D. PicKell (@jdpickell) September 2, 2023
Arnold has the capability of running Oklahoma's preferred rush concept of inside zone read.
Plenty of playmakers will be in place for Arnold to target, as Drake Stoops and Nic Anderson each averaged an explosive 2.4 yards per route run.
While the offense is expected to remain vertical with tempo, the defense was boosted by the commitment of its captain.
Linebacker Danny Stutsman was crucial to the success of the 4-2-5 defense. Oklahoma finished the season outside the top 50 in tackle grading, per PFF. Of the defensive starters, Stutsman was the only tackler with a missed tackle rate under 20%, coming in at 9.3%.
The health of the middle linebacker was paramount at the end of the season, as Oklahoma suffered losses to both Kansas and Oklahoma State with Stutsman out.
Now at full strength and committed to the 2024 season, Oklahoma will have the primary driver of its season-long numbers that include a top-25 mark in limiting the explosive play.
Arizona vs Oklahoma
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona and Oklahoma match up statistically:
Arizona Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 6 | 33 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 9 | |
| Pass Success | 8 | 19 | |
| Havoc | 61 | 19 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 29 |  |
| Quality Drives | 5 | 40 | |
Oklahoma Offense vs. Arizona Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 23 | 72 | |
| Line Yards | 88 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 48 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 36 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 45 | |
| Quality Drives | 7 | 38 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 43 | 59 |
| PFF Coverage | 63 | 55 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 90 | 105 |
| Middle 8 | 46 | 37 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (75) | 23.4 (11) |
| Rush Rate | 46.6% (109) | 54.4% (54) |
Arizona vs Oklahoma
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Alamo Bowl is expected to be an offensive bonanza, as the Arnold era begins for Oklahoma and Fifita leads an Arizona squad that ranks fourth in on-target rate.
The difference in this game is the ability to establish the rush, as Oklahoma prefers a heavy amount of inside zone with running back Gavin Sawchuk. Arnold and Sawchuk will face an Arizona defense that had consistent issues againsy inside zone, producing a low 41% Success Rate against opposing offenses.
Oklahoma will have its full complementary playbook available, as it should find success on the ground.
The Arizona offense will be limited in producing a methodical ground attack without top lineman Jordan Morgan. The Wildcats finished the season 49th in average third-down distance, a number that's expected to rise without success in standard downs.
Fifita's passing numbers are masked by a high touchdown mark, but he generated just seven big-time throws to eight turnover-worthy plays. The freshman ended the season with a 34% adjusted completion rate on 38 passing attempts over 20 yards.
With Stutsman committed to the Alamo Bowl and beyond for Oklahoma, the slight defensive edge in this game goes to the Sooners.
Action Network projects Oklahoma -2.5 points on a neutral field if this game was played during the regular season.
The oversold line for Arizona is a result of the announcements from Lebby and Gabriel, but there's no expected drop-off with the moves to Arnold at quarterback and Littrell at offensive coordinator.
Pick: Oklahoma +3 or Better
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