Arkansas vs Alabama Odds
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -110 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | +800 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -110 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | -1400 |
The Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in a Saturday SEC showdown in Tuscaloosa.
A head coach on the hot seat entering T-Town is never a great scenario, but Sam Pittman and the Razorbacks head to Bryant-Denny Stadium on a four-game losing streak.
The pitchforks for Pittman are out in Hogville, as the Hogs have not experienced a five-game losing streak since the 2019 season under Chad Morris.
Plenty of the criticism comes around new offensive coordinator Dan Enos, along with poor offensive line play.
While the defense has shown improvement from the 2022 version that won the Liberty Bowl, too many mistakes are being made halfway through the season.
While Arkansas looks for momentum, Alabama is in a full-swing rebound from a Week 2 loss against Texas. The Crimson Tide are the only SEC West team without a conference loss, sitting in the driver's seat in the toughest division of college football.
With tiebreaker victories over Ole Miss and Texas A&M, head coach Nick Saban is an LSU victory away from making travel plans for the SEC Championship Game. Alabama will enjoy some home-cooking against Arkansas and in a revenge spot against Tennessee.
For all the content creators who called for the end of Alabama, Saban only needs offensive line play to be a prime contender to win the College Football Playoff.
Arkansas Razorbacks
A confusing week of practice and game execution surrounded the Razorbacks against Ole Miss in Week 6.
Pittman shuffled the offensive line, moving preseason All-American Beaux Limmer to guard and sliding struggling right tackle Patrick Kutas to center.
The line has been under heavy scrutiny in Enos' first season. He runs a different style of offense than his predecessor Kendal Briles, opting for a slower tempo with slow-developing plays.
Play-action passes, reverse rush attempts and screen passes all require a line to execute. Kutas has allowed 23 pressures and 15 run disruptions, producing one of the lowest efficiency grades of any Power 5 offensive lineman.
The change in position did not last long, as both Limmer and Kutas lasted 33 snaps against Ole Miss before being moved back to their original positions. Kutas posted his worst run-blocking grade of the season, per PFF.
Pittman commented that the Ole Miss front was quick and the Arkansas offensive line was not "seeing the game like we practiced."
Arkansas now ranks 130th in Havoc Allowed, a statistic that measures tackles for loss, sacks, pass breakups, interceptions and fumbles. The primary driver for the Hogs' offensive struggles is 47 tackles for loss allowed for a total of 218 yards.
New defensive coordinator Travis Williams has changed the identity of the Razorbacks defense, moving to a 4-2-5 front with an aggressive 40% blitz rate. The secondary runs the bulk of pass defense snaps in cover 1, ranking just inside the top 40 in Passing Success Rate.
While the defense has been exceptional in producing a Havoc ranking in the top 25, the Razorbacks are giving up a large number of explosive plays in passing downs.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama has hit a stride, covering in a road victory against Texas A&M after posting multiple score wins against Mississippi State and Ole Miss.
Despite a Havoc Allowed rank at the bottom of FBS teams, Alabama has started to clean up critical mistakes.
Quarterback Jalen Milroe was excellent against a tough Aggies defense, logging four big-time throws and just a single interception. The third-year signal-caller now has twice as many big-time throws as turnover-worthy plays in passing attempts while rushing for 287 yards and creating 16 missed tackles.
The nickel defense under coordinator Kevin Steele has also produced national title-contending numbers, ranking as the best coverage unit in FBS, per PFF.
The Crimson Tide have one of the best defenses in the nation at knocking opposing offenses off schedule, ranking sixth in Standard Downs Success Rate.
Alabama has one of the best success rates in limiting explosive plays through cover 3 and quarters coverage.
Arkansas vs Alabama
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas and Alabama match up statistically:
Arkansas Offense vs. Alabama Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 40 | 16 | |
| Line Yards | 63 | 61 |  |
| Pass Success | 74 | 19 | |
| Havoc | 130 | 33 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 46 | |
| Quality Drives | 92 | 22 | |
Alabama Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 67 | 40 | |
| Line Yards | 44 | 55 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 36 | |
| Havoc | 126 | 23 | |
| Finishing Drives | 47 | 25 | |
| Quality Drives | 67 | 86 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 37 | 7 |
| PFF Coverage | 66 | 1 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 3 | 12 |
| Middle 8 | 25 | 6 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.6 (113) | 29.0 (107) |
| Rush Rate | 57.5% (51) | 62.1% (31) |
Arkansas vs Alabama
Betting Pick & Prediction
Alabama will face a second consecutive opponent with a Havoc-minded defensive front.
Arkansas sends a heavy amount of blitz, creating a negative play on 21% of attempts with a 60% success rate. Williams does not hesitate to send more than four pass rushers, putting the focus on Milroe's ability to protect the ball and scramble.
While heavy blitz can produce plays that end offensive drives, it can also issue great field position. Both Arkansas and Alabama rank 130th and 126th in Havoc Allowed, respectively. Each defense is expected to come after the quarterback, taking advantage of two offensive lines that have been subpar against their SEC peers.
Both offenses have the ability to be explosive in busted passing attempts. Arkansas and Alabama rank top-10 in offensive passing downs explosives, with expectations that many possessions will contain turnovers and long touchdowns.
Arkansas was a possession away from upsetting Alabama in this very spot two seasons ago, a game that ended with 77 points.
The Action Network projection makes Arkansas a 15-point underdog with a total of 46. Look for enough busted plays and explosives from Milroe and Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson to get over the total.
