The Auburn Tigers (2-4) take on the Missouri Tigers (5-1) in what is expected to be a gold-filled Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
SEC play hasn’t been very kind to Auburn, which has fallen in three consecutive games, most recently to Georgia by the score of 31-13. Payton Thorne played to his usual average, completing 59% of his passes, but was unable to toss a touchdown pass.
Missouri took all its anger out on UMass last week and came away with a 45-3 victory. Prior to that, the Tigers got embarrassed by Texas A&M, losing 41-10. A throttling of UMass was expected, but I know Brady Cook is looking for redemption after completing only 42% of his passes.
Missouri is favored by 4 points on the spread with a total of 51.
Where does the betting value lie? Check out my Auburn vs. Missouri predictions and college football picks for Saturday.
Auburn vs Missouri Odds, Spread, Pick
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -115 | 50 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -105 | 50 -110o / -110u | -180 |
- Auburn vs Missouri spread: Missouri -4
- Auburn vs Missouri over/under: 50 points
- Auburn vs Missouri moneyline: Missouri -180
- Auburn vs Missouri pick: Over 51
My Auburn vs Missouri best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Auburn vs Missouri Betting Preview
Some would say Thorne's relationship with coach Hugh Freeze is frayed. Freeze blamed Thorne for a misplay against Georgia, but Thorne contradicted Freeze's statement.
So yeah, it’s a mess at Auburn.
However, the talent is there, and Thorne’s underlying stats look solid. Auburn ranks 100th in Havoc allowed, which doesn’t let the 45th-most successful pass attack and an explosive group of receivers spread their wings.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith is a mutant, averaging 21.3 yards per catch with six touchdowns. Additionally, two freshman receivers, Cam Coleman and Perry Thompson, are capable of making monstrous plays, but don’t get a ton of targets.
The run game, to no one's surprise, has been nearly unstoppable. Jarquez Hunter and Damari Alston each average over six yards per carry, with Hunter averaging 88 yards per game.
Auburn’s defense is fairly middle-of-the-road. It ranks 60th in passing yards allowed per game, 58th in rushing yards per game and 70th in sack percentage.
The Tigers also have two star linemen in Jalen McLeod and Keldric Faulk, who have combined for 14.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks. They’ll cause some trouble for a Missouri offensive line that only lets up 2.2 sacks per game.
Missouri had a humiliating showing two weeks in College Station. The UMass game was a buffer for this week's contest against Auburn and although there were a lot of opportunities, poor quarterback play and some penalties deterred a few scoring drives.
I think Cook bounces back in this spot. He’s usually very accurate, but it’ll be on the offensive line to protect him. Missouri is 14th in Havoc allowed, so this'll potentially be its biggest test of the season.
Cook also has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal. Luther Burden III is among the more dynamic receivers in college football and Theo Wease Jr. leads the team with 407 yards.
Running back Nate Noel has been a huge part of this offense. He’s been running the ball at a six-yards-per-carry clip and has helped the Tigers achieve the 15th-best Success Rate. Additionally, he averages 94 yards per game, so we can expect a plenty of volume.
There is a whole lot to like about this defense, which made the A&M game all the more confusing. Perhaps the pass rush could be better, but the secondary is where the defense shines. Safety Daylan Carnell has four pass breakups and Marvin Burks Jr. is second in tackles.
Auburn vs Missouri Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Auburn and Missouri match up statistically:
Auburn Offense vs. Missouri Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 11 |  |
| Line Yards | 11 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 45 | 55 | |
| Havoc | 100 | 29 | |
| Finishing Drives | 84 | 45 | |
| Quality Drives | 46 | 14 | |
Missouri Offense vs. Auburn Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 40 | |
| Line Yards | 45 | 15 | |
| Pass Success | 51 | 71 | |
| Havoc | 14 | 100 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 29 | |
| Quality Drives | 15 | 43 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 50 | 18 |
| PFF Coverage | 86 | 62 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 69 | 47 |
| Middle 8 | 61 | 20 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.3 (30) | 27.5 (69) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (86) | 53% (65) |
Auburn vs Missouri Prediction
There's a ton of motivation for Mizzou to block out the A&M game as Auburn is a massive test. I like what Auburn has in terms of talent and think it can hang with the best of the best.
However, Freeze's relationship with his quarterback is extremely suspect and isn't encouraging if I were an Auburn fan or bettor.
Missouri's program is near the top of the FBS, but still needs work to compete with Georgia, Alabama and Texas in the SEC.
Part of me wants to pick Missouri to cover, but I wonder about Auburn, which can be a bit unpredictable.
Instead of picking either team to cover, I'll go for the over. Our PRO Insights reveal that the majority of bettors are looking toward the over. Plus, the total opened at 50.5, leaped up to 53.5 and then went back down to 51.5 in a matter of minutes. That could be a telling sign that a high-scoring game is expected.
Pick: Over 51
Auburn vs Missouri Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Auburn takes on Missouri in Columbia, Missouri, on Saturday, October 19, at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Auburn vs Missouri Weather
