Baylor Bears vs Kansas State Wildcats Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+21.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +900 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-21.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -1600 |
Let's dive into the Baylor Bears vs. Kansas State Wildcats odds and make a prediction for Saturday's college football game.
The Kansas State Wildcats were a late score away from vaulting themselves into the Big 12 title picture. However, it was not meant to be, as their comeback efforts were washed aside in overtime against Texas.
Now, they must pick themselves up as the Baylor Bears come to town. The Bears also lost in overtime last week, so let's figure out which team will get back in the win column.
Baylor Bears
Baylor's offensive identity has developed into one that we haven't seen from this program in recent years. The Bears have thrown the ball at the 13th-highest rate in the country, largely because they are often trailing.
Additionally, their offensive line has struggled and they've nearly had to abandon the run game. That means the offense is in the hands of Blake Shapen, who is coming off his best game of the season.
In the loss to Houston, Shapen completed 78.4% of his passes for 263 yards and two touchdowns. However, Kansas State's secondary has been very solid.
Kansas State ranks 12th in opponent completion percentage and 21st in yards per pass allowed. Despite that, the Wildcats haven't rushed the passer well, which may give Baylor what it needs to get on the board.
Kansas State Wildcats
If there was ever a Big 12 defense a team wanted to face to get back on track, it's Baylor's. The Bears have been bad defending both the run and the pass, but it's much more likely that we'll see Kansas State run the ball in this game.
The Wildcats have the opportunity to break off explosive runs as they are 21st in yards per rush and Baylor is 118th in yards per rush allowed.
The Bears are also 112th in tackling, per PFF. That will only amplify the bevy of runs to the second level the Wildcats are likely to have in this matchup.
Baylor hasn't proven it can get any offense off the field and is 118th in opponent third-down conversion rate. That has led to plenty of points as the Bears are 100th in defensive finishing drives.
Add in that Kansas State is in the top 10 in the nation in putting together drives and finishing with points, and it's likely going to be a long day for Baylor's defense.
Baylor vs Kansas State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Baylor and Kansas State match up statistically:
Baylor Offense vs Kansas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 21 | |
| Line Yards | 89 | 14 | |
| Pass Success | 95 | 29 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 125 | 6 | |
| Quality Drives | 57 | 28 | |
Kansas State Offense vs Baylor Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 24 | 99 | |
| Line Yards | 34 | 116 | |
| Pass Success | 32 | 114 | |
| Havoc | 13 | 82 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 94 | |
| Quality Drives | 48 | 100 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 112 | 120 |
| PFF Coverage | 79 | 45 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 78 | 64 |
| Middle 8 | 85 | 75 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.4 (58) | 26.2 (55) |
| Rush Rate | 46.7% (113) | 55.7% (42) |
Baylor vs Kansas State
Betting Pick & Prediction
This game has blowout written all over it, which is why the spread is so big. However, Baylor's offense may be just lively enough to open up another angle.
The Wildcats are projected to put up at least 40 points, which means we'll only need minimal output from Baylor to hit the over.
The Bears are averaging nearly 22 points per game and should be able to get 17, especially if some points come in garbage time.
Pick: Over 55 or Better
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