After a turbulent month in November, Michigan is heading to Indianapolis again for the Big Ten Championship.
Michigan secured top-10 victories at Penn State and outlasted Ohio State with head coach Jim Harbaugh serving a three-game suspension. With Harbaugh back at the helm, Michigan is one win away from its third consecutive Big Ten Championship and CFP appearance.
First, it will have to knock off Iowa for the second time in three years.
Iowa football is rarely pretty, but it gets the job done. Head coach Kirk Ferentz guided his team to seven wins in their final eight games to return to the Big Ten Championship game.
In the final year of the Big Ten West Division, Iowa will look to become the first team from the division to win the Big Ten Championship game.
Blake Corum 70+ Rushing Yards and Anytime TD
While Blake Corum has not been as dominant as in 2022, he's still 24 rushing yards away from another 1,000-yard season. His yard-per-carry average (4.8) is down, but Michigan's rushing unit is only 115th in Rush Explosivness.
However, with Michigan's commitment to running the football, Corum usually gets enough carries to pile up yardage.
Corum has run for 70 yards in eight of 12 games this season and finished with 69 yards in another. That includes the last three games, where he had at least 80 yards in each. He ran for 145 yards at Penn State and 88 last week against Ohio State. Penn State is third nationally in rushing yards allowed per game, while Ohio State is 22nd.
Iowa has another stout unit, ranking 17th in rush yards allowed per game.
However, Corum has run for 70 in both his two career games against Iowa. In last year's meeting, he ran for 133 yards and a touchdown. Corum finding the end zone is pretty much a given at this point.
Corum has scored in 23 of his last 24 games, with 40 rushing touchdowns in that span. In the lone game he didn't score, he received just two carries before leaving with an injury.
At -340, we have to pay a lot of juice for a touchdown. However, considering the hit rate, this is somewhat of a bargain. Corum has been anywhere from -900 to -1250 to score in some weeks.
Colston Loveland Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
If you read last week's Ohio State-Michigan mega guide, you'd know I was on Colston Loveland last week.
The line was 35.5 last week, and he shattered it. The standout tight end had a career-high 88 receiving yards on five receptions.
He has hit this line in four of his past six games, with at least 55 receiving yards each game.
In last year's meeting, Loveland didn't record a catch as he was still carving out a role as a true freshman in just the fifth game of his career.
However, last year's starting tight end, Luke Schoonmaker, had four catches for 45 yards. Schoonmaker is now a Dallas Cowboy, and Loveland has ascended in his place.
He already surpassed Schoonmaker's production from last season in receptions, yards, and touchdowns in two fewer games thus far. Jim Harbaugh has always run a tight end-friendly offense. He has another star in Loveland, who has emerged as a safety blanket for quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
Loveland likely gets to 40 this week with three to four receptions.
Kaleb Johnson 25+ Alt. Rushing Yards
Kaleb Johnson has been RB2 in Iowa City this season, but I find his line more favorable this week.
In eight games this season, Johnson is averaging 51.9 yards per game. A 134-yard outburst against Purdue boosted his average, but he also has four games with at least 50 yards.
Last week, Johnson did not find a lot of running room at Nebraska. The Huskers are ninth nationally in rushing yards allowed per game, and they held Johnson to 30 yards on 10 carries. However, 30 yards would be enough to clear this line this week.
Johnson has run for 25 yards in seven of eight games this season.
Like Nebraska, Michigan is stout against the run, ranking seventh nationally in rush yards allowed per game.
However, there has been space available over the past few weeks. In Michigan's past four games, nine ball-carriers have run for at least 25 yards, with Tyrone Tracy Jr., Kaytron Allen and TreVeyon Henderson all amassing over 60 yards.
Johnson ran for 32 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries against Michigan last season. He is averaging four yards per carry this year. However, even if he struggles again, he should hit this line with eight carries at 3.1 yards per carry. He has received 10 carries in seven games this season and ran for 25 yards in all of them.
Michigan vs. Iowa Same Game Parlay
- Blake Corum 70+ Rush Yards
- Blake Corum Anytime TD
- Colston Loveland Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
- Kaleb Johnson 25+ Receiving Yards
Parlay Odds: +528 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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