BYU vs Texas Odds
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +725 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
Steve Sarkisian and his Texas Longhorns escaped a surprisingly close game last weekend at Houston. The Horns held on to win 31-24, despite closing as a 23.5-point road favorite.
On the potential game-tying drive, Houston failed to convert on fourth-and-1 inside the Texas 20-yard line with under two minutes remaining.
I'm curious to see if Sark's squad gets rowdy for this conference clash when Kalani Sitake's BYU Cougars roll into Austin on Saturday afternoon. The Longhorns enter as favorites of -19.5, while the over/under sits at 50.5.
The Cougars are coming off a stunning victory against Texas Tech, and they pulled off the 27-13 victory despite being outgained in total yards. Sitake is one of the most respected coaches in the entire FBS, so I have a feeling he'll be able to contain his team's composure heading into this matchup.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers will be out for the Longhorns with an AC joint injury, so Maalik Murphy is in line to start. Will that matter against a weak Houston secondary? Let's see if we can uncover some betting value as we break down both of these teams.
BYU Cougars
I was stunned to see BYU pull off the upset last weekend. Texas Tech shot themselves in the foot with five turnovers, and the Cougars were able to take advantage.
This team continues to struggle offensively, and the majority of that faults to quarterback Kedon Slovis. Slovis last week didn't play too terribly, but his accuracy remains a huge reason why he can't quite make the next step to being a solid signal caller.
He's completing only 57% of his passes this season, and a worrisome 53% in conference play. This will be a huge factor going against this terrific Longhorns defense that is 43rd in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Besides Slovis, this Cougars offense can not run the ball at all. They are 133rd in Rush Success Rate, and as a result, they are 111th in rush rate.
This smells like huge trouble for the Cougars offense, as the Longhorns defense will be able to exploit this one-dimensional approach. I have a hard time believing that this Cougars offense will be able to keep up offensively.
On the defensive side of the ball, there are only a few bright spots that catch my eye. This defense is 44th in Rush Success Rate allowed, so they should be able to contain this Longhorns' rushing attack.
The Cougars also rank inside the top 40 in defensive finishing and quality drives, which is pretty remarkable given their overall record. However, this secondary remains a huge issue, as they find themselves in the bottom 20 in Pass Success Rate allowed.
If Texas decides to unleash Murphy at quarterback, this secondary will be in for another long afternoon. I can't see how the Cougars can keep up offensively, and I simply believe they are severely outmatched defensively in this matchup.
Texas Longhorns
Longhorn Nation saw their lives flash before their eyes when they watched their team nearly collapse after building a huge lead last weekend. A loss last weekend would have been the nail in the coffin for their CFP hopes.
Luckily for them, I see a great opportunity to bounce back against the Cougars. This home crowd should provide some extra juice, and I love some of the matchups the Horns should be able to exploit.
Offensively, I already mentioned how the Cougars are a strong unit against the run, so I expect Murphy to have a field day picking apart this secondary. This offense is 57th in Havoc allowed, and I wouldn't be too concerned, especially against a Cougars defense that does not create any to begin with.
Ewers should have plenty of clean pockets, and these receivers should have plenty of open space to create some explosive plays down the field. The Horns are fifth in the nation in quality drives, so I would expect this unit to be on the field for the majority of the game.
Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has to be licking his chops for this matchup, as I think this defensive unit has the opportunity to blank this Cougars offense. From a matchup perspective, these pass rushers should have a field day against the BYU trench.
The Longhorns do a great job of limiting offensive possessions. I see no reason as to why that does not continue this week against a Cougars offense that ranks 120th in quality drives.
BYU vs Texas
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how BYU and Texas match up statistically:
BYU Offense vs. Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 133 | 13 | |
| Line Yards | 123 | 10 | |
| Pass Success | 99 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 103 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 26 | 10 | |
| Quality Drives | 120 | 33 | |
Texas Offense vs. BYU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 70 | 44 | |
| Line Yards | 71 | 95 | |
| Pass Success | 28 | 91 | |
| Havoc | 57 | 116 | |
| Finishing Drives | 70 | 33 | |
| Quality Drives | 5 | 37 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 119 | 83 |
| PFF Coverage | 105 | 75 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 24 | 27 |
| Middle 8 | 112 | 99 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.8 (86) | 26.2 (54) |
| Rush Rate | 46.7% (111) | 54.5% (70) |
BYU vs Texas
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is setting up to be a huge blowout for the Longhorns. I know it's never fun laying a large number against a conference opponent, but there are way too many paths to a big win for the Horns.
First and foremost, I think Slovis is primed to turn the ball over against this vicious Longhorns defensive front. This Cougars offensive line will have their hands full all afternoon long.
You can even argue that the Cougars should've lost last weekend, as they were gifted multiple turnovers from Texas Tech.
Even if Slovis has time to throw, I expect this elite Longhorns secondary to shut down any sort of explosiveness from the Cougars' aerial attack. I expect him to be under duress for the majority of the afternoon.
Steve Sarkisian should have his troops rallied up and ready to rebound after last week's near-disastrous results. I have all of the respect in the world for Sitake, but his team doesn't have the chops to hang with the Longhorns in this spot.
Quite frankly, I loved the Horns in this spot with a healthy Ewers, and I may like that even more with Murphy under center.
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