Central Michigan Chippewas vs Ohio Bobcats Odds
| Central Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
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Central Michigan and Ohio meet in Athens in a very important game for the Chippewas.
CMU enters this game at 5-5, needing just one more win to become bowl-eligible. It was unable to pick up that victory last week against Western Michigan, losing 38-28.
The Chips are pretty sizable underdogs here, and if they don't come through, they'll have one last opportunity against Akron to close out their regular season next week.
Ohio is on the outside looking in at the MAC Championship. It's trailing Miami (OH) in the standings by one game, but the RedHawks hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over them.
The Bobcats need to win their final two games and hope that Miami (OH) drops its last two to Buffalo and Ball State.
Where does the betting value lie in this Wednesday night MACtion matchup? Let's dive into the Central Michigan vs. Ohio odds and find a pick and prediction.
Central Michigan Chippewas
Central Michigan is really going to have a tough time moving the ball on one of the best defenses in the MAC.
CMU quarterback Jase Bauer has really struggled, as he averages only 6.4 yards per attempt and has 10 turnover-worthy plays compared to nine big-time throws.
There are 146 quarterbacks in FBS who have attempted at least 100 passes this season. Of those 146, Bauer ranks 107th in EPA and 109th in completion percentage. That's a problem going up against an Ohio secondary that allows only 6.3 yards per attempt and sits top-25 in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Central Michigan hasn't really run the ball effectively either. Marion Lukes has put up 349 rushing yards in his last two games, but the Chippewas are still outside the top 50 in Rushing Success Rate.
Most importantly for CMU, though, is it hasn't taken advantage of its scoring opportunities. The Chippewas rank 117th in Finishing Drives, which is bad when they're already struggling to move the ball.
Central Michigan lost pretty handily last week against Western Michigan and will see some of the same problems against Ohio on Wednesday.
The Chippewas' weakness defensively is in their secondary. They allowed Western Michigan quarterback Hayden Wolff to go 25-for-36 for 333 yards and three touchdowns. For the season, they're 125th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 127th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke is really the only reason the Bobcats offense is successful — because they can't run the ball. Rourke may not be lighting teams up downfield, but he's efficient.
The Bobcats rank 22nd in Passing Success Rate, and Rourke has a 50% positive EPA/Play Percentage, which sits 21st in the country.
As a team, though, Ohio is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry on the ground and ranks outside the top 70 in both Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards. So, the pressure is going to be on Rourke to move the ball.
The real reason why Ohio is 7-3 on the season is because of its defense, which is the best in the MAC.
The front seven has been incredible, allowing only 3.4 yards per carry. That unit has been stuffing everything at the line of scrimmage while ranking 11th in Defensive Line Yards and eighth in Stuff Rate.
That's great news in this matchup given Bauer's limitations as a passer this season.
The Bobcats' secondary has been stellar as well, ranking inside the top 30 in both Passing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed. So, they really should be able to shut down the Chippewas offense.
Most importantly, Ohio sits second in the country in Finishing Drives Allowed with their opponents averaging only 2.31 points on drives that end inside the Bobcats' 40-yard line.
Central Michigan vs Ohio
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Central Michigan and Ohio match up statistically:
Central Michigan Offense vs. Ohio Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 57 | 14 | |
| Line Yards | 39 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 107 | 36 | |
| Havoc | 74 | 5 | |
| Finishing Drives | 28 | 2 | |
| Quality Drives | 99 | 16 | |
Ohio Offense vs. Central Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 81 | 118 | |
| Line Yards | 73 | 117 | |
| Pass Success | 22 | 127 | |
| Havoc | 55 | 127 | |
| Finishing Drives | 103 | 115 | |
| Quality Drives | 48 | 111 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 63 | 112 |
| PFF Coverage | 100 | 82 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 120 | 127 |
| Middle 8 | 115 | 63 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.8 (85) | 29.4 (111) |
| Rush Rate | 58.2% (35) | 52.9% (65) |
Central Michigan vs Ohio
Betting Pick & Prediction
This game has "blowout" written all over it.
Central Michigan can't stop anything at the moment, and with all of its struggles in the secondary, Rourke should have a huge game.
Even though Ohio has struggled to run the ball, the fact that Central Michigan allows 4.7 yards per carry doesn't give me much confidence that it's actually going to slow down a Bobcat offense that's still top-50 in Success Rate.
On the other side, I don't know how Central Michigan is going to move the ball effectively if it can't run the ball.
Miami (OH) and San Diego State are the only two teams to run for over 150 yards against Ohio's defense, which means the Chippewas' offensive success is going to be in Bauer's hands. That's not a good scenario given how bad he's been as a passer this season.
I have Ohio projected as a -17.5 favorite, so I like the value on the Bobcats at -10.5 at FanDuel.
