Charlotte vs SMU Odds
| Charlotte Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -105 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +1000 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -115 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
Let's pony up to Dallas, Texas, where the SMU Mustangs will host Biff Poggi's Charlotte 49ers on Saturday night.
Poggi's team covered last week against Florida and will once again have their hands full against SMU. Meanwhile, the Mustangs will be looking to bounce back after looking clueless at times against TCU.
Both of these teams love to run the football, so let's see if that'll be a key part of the Charlotte vs. SMU betting handicap on Saturday, Sept. 30.
Charlotte 49ers
Poggi is my hero, and not just because he loves football. He also looks like the jolliest guy in America, and every time I see him on the sideline, I can't tell whether he just rolled out of bed.
To me, that's the definition of a true football guy. He's the people's champion. Unfortunately, his football team isn't very good.
Charlotte fought pretty hard against Florida last week but was completely outmatched in the trenches. The 49ers can't get out of their own way, especially on offense.
Poggi seemed to finally name a starting quarterback last week, as dual-threat Jalon Jones played the entire game against the Gators. It's unclear if Trexler Ivey, who is known more for his arm, will get any playing time this week.
I assume the 49ers could make the switch if they trail by multiple scores early in the game, but I don't think it's going to matter in this matchup.
Charlotte ranks beyond the top 100 in almost every offensive category, most notably Rushing and Passing Success Rate.
I can't find anything positive for the 49ers offense, especially since SMU is excellent at stopping the run. That's essentially Charlotte's bread and butter, as the 49ers run the ball 54% of the time.
The lone bright side is that Charlotte's defense has been pretty stout against the run. However, it's still been bullied in the trenches and gashed through the air. This defense could be catching its breath all afternoon because SMU is more than capable of creating explosive plays.
SMU Mustangs
Shoutout to my buddy Chris from Virginia, who — on the Big Bets on Campus recap podcast — notably destroyed head coach Rhett Lashlee after last week's performance.
Lashlee's red-zone play-calling was pretty bizarre, but luckily for the Mustangs, they get a terrific get-right spot against a horrific Charlotte team this week. I know quarterback Preston Stone was bad last week, but I expect him to bounce back in a big way in this matchup.
Despite losing by three scores, I didn't downgrade SMU much. This offense still ranks 34th in Line Yards and 31st in Quality Drives.
The Mustangs are also an impressive eighth in the nation in Havoc Allowed, which will give Stone plenty of opportunities to exploit Charlotte's horrific secondary.
Defensively, this unit has sneakily been a strength.
SMU ranks 29th in Rushing Success Rate, which will be key against Charlotte's run-heavy attack. What's also impressive is that the Mustangs are 39th in Defensive Quality Drives, which alludes to the fact they've prevented their opponents from extending offensive series.
Charlotte vs SMU
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Charlotte and SMU match up statistically:
Charlotte Offense vs. SMU Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 29 | |
| Line Yards | 110 | 66 | |
| Pass Success | 115 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 126 | 89 | |
| Finishing Drives | 111 | 67 | |
| Quality Drives | 113 | 39 | |
SMU Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 69 | 42 | |
| Line Yards | 34 | 87 | |
| Pass Success | 67 | 109 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 123 | |
| Finishing Drives | 59 | 64 | |
| Quality Drives | 31 | 116 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 120 | 42 |
| PFF Coverage | 93 | 90 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 110 | 123 |
| Middle 8 | 35 | 4 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.3 (120) | 24.7 (30) |
| Rush Rate | 58.2% (44) | 51.5% (68) |
Charlotte vs SMU
Betting Pick & Prediction
Sorry, Poggi. I'm fading you in this spot.
I happily backed Charlotte, despite all of the metrics telling me not to last week. However, this has disaster written all over it for Charlotte. I think SMU's offense is way too good to stay stagnant after last week, and this is the perfect get-right spot.
Not only are the Mustangs at home, but this is a perfect team to bounce back against. I definitely don't enjoy laying large numbers in college football, but this is too good of a spot to pass up.
