Cincinnati vs BYU Odds
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+1 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-1 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
Cincinnati and BYU meet for the first time as Big 12 members in Provo on Friday night.
Cincinnati lost to Oklahoma last weekend, but it put together a strong defensive performance by holding Dillon Gabriel and the high-powered Oklahoma offense to just 20 points.
The Bearcats have now lost two straight after getting upset by Miami (OH) in Week 4, so they will be desperate for a win on Friday.
BYU lost its first game of the season on Saturday at Kansas, 38-27. The Cougars have an impressive road win at Arkansas already under their belts, but they're in danger of starting 0-2 in conference play if they don't beat the Bearcats.
Find a betting preview, pick and prediction for Cincinnati vs. BYU on Friday, Sept. 29 below.
Cincinnati Bearcats
It's very clear at this point that for Cincinnati's offense to be successful, the Bearcats have to run the ball effectively.
Emory Jones has shown us over his career that he's simply an average passer, consistently putting up PFF passing grades around 70. This season is no different, as his PFF passing grade through four games sits at just 67.8.
The Bearcats don't need him to be an elite passer because they're running the ball on 58.1% of their offensive plays.
When Jones was healthy in 2021, he averaged 6.2 yards per carry, forced 27 missed tackles and tallied 30 runs over 10 yards on 106 carries. He already has nine runs over 10 yards in only four games this season.
On the other side, Cincinnati lost its first-team All-American linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. — who recorded 137 tackles a season ago — to the NFL. The loss is massive, but Cincinnati remains stout in the trenches, as it brought back its two best defensive linemen in Jowon Briggs — who was first-team All-AAC — and Eric Phillips.
The Bearcats are a little weak in the secondary, but their performance against Gabriel and the Sooners should give them a lot of confidence heading to Provo. Yes, Gabriel threw for over 300 yards and 8.0 yards per attempt, but they shut him down in the red zone.
Oklahoma crossed Cincinnati's 40-yard line six times — and got inside the 20-yard line five times — but it scored only 20 points.
BYU Cougars
Kedon Slovis has been pretty strong through his first four starts, but his numbers have been a bit inflated by a solid performance against Southern Utah.
Overall, he has a PFF passing grade of 76.6, but he hasn't posted a grade over 70 against an FBS opponent.
However, Slovis showed in the last game against Kansas that the more time he has to throw, the worse he gets. He threw for 347 yards against a bad Jayhawks defense, but that took 51 attempts, and he also committed three turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
As BYU reworks its offensive line, he's also been under pressure on 33.3% of his dropbacks.
The two players with starting experience on the line had to change positions to allow several transfers to play their natural positions. The offensive line did a better job in protection against Kansas, but Cincinnati has a better pass rush.
Basically, all of BYU's offense against Kansas had to come through the air because the Cougars have struggled to run the ball. They ran for just nine yards against the Jayhawks and are averaging only 2.3 yards per carry against FBS opponents this season.
They also rank outside the top 100 in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush.
BYU's defense has been decent through four games, but in this game specifically, the Cougars are going to have to stop the run to be successful. They couldn't do that against Kansas last Saturday, as the Jayhawks ran for 6.0 yards per carry.
More specifically, Jalon Daniels ran for 54 yards on nine carries, which is important since they're facing another running quarterback in Jones.
Cincinnati vs BYU
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Cincinnati and BYU match up statistically:
Cincinnati Offense vs. BYU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 66 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 62 | 82 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 62 | 84 | |
| Finishing Drives | 75 | 62 | |
| Quality Drives | 39 | 23 | |
BYU Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 133 | 32 | |
| Line Yards | 123 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 74 | 94 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 14 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 52 | |
| Quality Drives | 118 | 63 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 21 | 73 |
| PFF Coverage | 123 | 112 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 89 | 49 |
| Middle 8 | 26 | 129 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.2 (56) | 27.4 (79) |
| Rush Rate | 58.1% (31) | 43.7% (119) |
Cincinnati vs BYU
Betting Pick & Prediction
In their last two losses, the Bearcats have failed to capitalize on their scoring opportunities. Against Miami (OH) and Oklahoma, Cincinnati drove inside its opponents' 40-yard line on 13 drives but scored only 29 total points.
BYU's offense has become completely one-dimensional, as it no longer has the ability to even try to rush the ball, ranking last in Rushing Success Rate.
That puts a lot of pressure on Slovis and an inexperienced offensive line that's allowing pressure on a third of dropbacks.
Plus, Cincy owns the 26th-best PFF pass-rushing grade and ranks 14th in Havoc, so the Bearcats should put pressure on Slovis.
I have Cincinnati projected as a 5.1-point favorite, so I like the value on the Bearcats on the road in Provo on the moneyline at -126.
