Clemson vs UNC Odds
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 +100 | 64.5 -108o / -112u | -275 |
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -122 | 64.5 -108o / -112u | +220 |
Clemson goes for its seventh ACC Championship in the last eight years when it takes on North Carolina in Charlotte on Saturday night.
The Tigers' College Football Playoff hopes vanished last weekend when they lost to in-state rival South Carolina, 31-30. They will now have to shift their focus on this title game for a chance at an Orange Bowl berth.
North Carolina stumbled down the stretch after finding itself in the College Football Playoff picture, losing back-to-back games at home against Georgia Tech and NC State.
The Tar Heels have a high-powered offense, but they haven't stopped anybody on defense.
We'll see if that comes back to bite them in their first ACC Championship game since 2015 when they lost to Deshaun Watson and Clemson, 45-37.
Clemson Tigers
Tigers Offense
Clemson's offense has been better than it was last year, but it's still not what we're used to seeing from the Tigers. Clemson ranks 42nd in Success Rate and 60th in EPA/Play while averaging 5.4 yards per play.
However, the Tigers offense will have some massive advantages — especially on the ground.
Will Shipley is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and has 35 runs over 10 yards. As a team, Clemson ranks 19th in Rushing Success Rate, 30th EPA/Rush and 26th Offensive Line Yards.
North Carolina is especially weak against the run, so Shipley should have a field day.
Will Shipley is too strong đź’Şđź’Şđź’Şpic.twitter.com/MFwjsINRUB
— The Transfer Portal CFB (@TPortalCFB) November 26, 2022
Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has a great ability to throw the deep ball. He has an 85.5 PFF passing grade with 22 big-time throws on passes over 20 yards in the air.
However, outside of throwing the deep ball, he's just been an average quarterback. He owns a PFF passing grade of just 74.4 while averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt with a 71.8% adjusted completion percentage.
However, given how bad North Carolina's secondary has been, he should be able to throw the deep ball on Saturday.
Tigers DefenseÂ
Clemson's defense has been quite good this season, as the Tigers are allowing 4.8 yards per play while ranking 17th in Success Rate Allowed and 11th in EPA/Play Allowed.
They've been outstanding at stopping the run, allowing only 3.0 yards per carry and ranking 15th in EPA/Rush and fifth in Stuff Rate.
Even though the Tigers lost to South Carolina last weekend, they allowed the Gamecocks to pick up only 54 total rushing yards, so they should find a way to shut down North Carolina's rushing attack.
The biggest Achilles' heel of the Clemson defense has been its secondary.
It sits 22nd in Passing Success Rate Allowed and has the 37th-best PFF coverage grade, but it's had a problem giving up big passing plays. Clemson ranks 63rd in explosive passing allowed, which is not good news against the best deep-ball passer in college football.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Tar Heels Offense
North Carolina's offense is the reason why it's in the ACC Championship. The Tar Heels enter this game ranking 24th in Success Rate and eighth in EPA/Play.
The reason they've been so good? Drake Maye.
The freshman has put up a 91.1 PFF passing grade, which is the fourth-best mark in college football. He also will be able to exploit the one main weakness of this Clemson defense: explosive passing allowed.
On throws of 10 yards or more, Maye has a PFF passing grade over 92 and an absurd 40 big-time throws, which is the most in college football. Clemson is very vulnerable when it comes to explosive passing, so Maye should be able to air it out.
Drake Maye has quite a few throws in his bag pic.twitter.com/vbwUlflvo2
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) November 13, 2022
North Carolina's ground game hasn't really been up to par with its passing attack, ranking 50th Rushing Success Rate, 89th in Offensive Line Yard, and 47th in EPA/Rush.
Plus, Clemson's front seven has been outstanding against the run, so this game is going to come down to whether or not Maye can pick apart Clemson's secondary.
The biggest thing for this North Carolina offense, though, is that it puts the ball in the end zone when it gets into opponents' territory. The Tar Heels are averaging 4.78 points per drive when they cross their opponent's 40-yard line, which is the fourth-best mark in the country.
Tar Heels Defense
North Carolina's defense has been terrible. The Tar Heels are allowing a whopping 6.0 yards per play (112th in FBS) and rank 120th in Success Rate Allowed and 114th in EPA/Play.
They've been terrible against the run, sitting outside the top 90 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, EPA/Rush Allowed and Defensive Line Yards. So, I'm not sure how North Carolina is going to stop Shipley.
UNC's secondary has also been a train wreck, allowing 7.9 yards per attempt while ranking 109th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 114th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
The last quarterback the Tar Heels faced who's on Uiagalelei's level was Wake Forest's Sam Hartman, and he threw for 10.3 yards per attempt against them.
Clemson vs North Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Clemson and North Carolina match up statistically:
Clemson Offense vs North Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 19 | 115 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 113 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 109 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 64 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 53 | 123 | |
| Finishing Drives | 24 | 124 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def) | |||
North Carolina Offense vs Clemson Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 50 | 20 | |
| Line Yards | 89 | 45 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 22 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 62 | 7 | |
| Havoc | 62 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 4 | 24 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 14 | 17 |
| PFF Coverage | 37 | 101 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 22 | 29 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.9 (51) | 23.8 (19) |
| Rush Rate | 55.2% (57) | 49.4% (94) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics
Clemson vs North Carolina Betting Pick
The biggest thing in this game is going to be Finishing Drives.
Both of these offenses rank top-25 in the country in that area, while the North Carolina defense is one the worst in defending in the red zone.
UNC plays at a really fast pace, running a play every 22.8 seconds — the 14th-fastest mark in FBS. Clemson, meanwhile, runs a play every 25.2 seconds, which is 52nd in the nation.
I have 72.2 points projected for this game, so I love the value on over 63 points.
Pick: Over 63 |
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