College Football Week 10 Noon Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 12 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Welcome to another college football Saturday.
This Week 10 noon slate is highlighted by No. 4 Ohio State taking on No. 3 Penn State in Happy Valley. However, that's far from the only thing going on in the college football world.
Our college football writers came through with four best bets for Saturday's noon games, including picks for Air Force vs. No. 21 Army, No. 19 Ole Miss vs. Arkansas, Northwestern vs. Purdue and Vanderbilt vs. Auburn.
So, whether you're looking to bet a service academy showdown, a matchup featuring a ranked SEC team or a battle between Big Ten bottom-feeders, we have you covered.
Check out all four of our college football best bets for Saturday's noon games — and be sure to check out our top picks for Saturday's afternoon and evening kickoff windows.
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Air Force vs. Army Best Pick
By Stuckey
Depending on what number you got in the Army vs. East Carolina game, this game will feature the only undefeated ATS team (Army) against an Air Force squad that has yet to cover (0-7 ATS). You don't see that too often this late in the season.
For starters, large underdogs in service academy matchups will almost always pique my interest. Since 2005, underdogs in service academy matchups have gone 34-22-2 (60.7%) ATS, covering by 2.6 points per game.
That includes a perfect 3-0 ATS when getting at least 17 points, covering by more than 20 points per game in large part due to Army's upset of Air Force out west just last season.
In that game, Air Force came in ranked with a perfect 8-0 record (sound familiar?) but turned the ball over six times en route to a blowout loss as an 18-point favorite.
I had to back Army out of principle in that game and must do so again with Air Force in a matchup with a spread differential of over 40 points in the span of one season. You also don't see that too often!
There's no doubt the Black Knights, led by quarterback Bryson Daily, have dominated every week en route to a blemish-free 7-0 record.
However, they have certainly played a laughable schedule to date. In fact, per Sagarin, which includes FCS teams, Army's strength of schedule ranks 145th in the nation. Just take a look at its wins:
- Lehigh
- Florida Atlantic
- Rice
- Temple
- Tulsa
- UAB
- ECU
Those teams have a combined 9-33 record (21.4%) against FBS foes with one of those nine victories coming in a head-to-head matchup between Temple and Tulsa.
Opponents are eventually going to convert a fourth down or score points in the red zone against Army, which has held opponents to a national-low 53.3% scoring conversion rate inside the 20 and stopped 14-of-21 fourth-down attempts.
The possessions will be extremely limited, making it harder for a large favorite to cover a big number. Plus, both defenses have supreme familiarity when it comes to defending the triple option since they face it every single day in practice.
After already losing to Navy, this essentially becomes its Super Bowl similar to that 2013 season when it beat Army as a small home underdog following a disastrous 1-7 start.
Despite the super soft schedule, Army's defensive metrics leave a lot to be desired, especially against the run (92nd in Success Rate), where Air Force will look to capitalize — although, again, this one profiles as a complete slog on both ends.
The Falcons also pivoted to using two of their more mobile quarterbacks prior to the bye before both got banged up. I'm not sure about the status of Josh Johnson, but Calhoun confirmed the availability of Quentin Hayes, who I believe is the best option under center at the moment. He should provide a much-needed spark on the ground with his legs.
In a game that profiles to have an extremely limited number of possessions, it should only take a turnover or a couple of red-zone stops for Air Force to stay within this number, assuming it can sustain just a tad bit of offense.
For what it's worth, this will mark the largest spread between service academies in our Action Labs database, dating back 20 seasons. It will surpass the previous high of 21, which came back in 2015 when a 2-9 Army team only lost by four to a ranked Navy squad.
Pick: Air Force +22
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Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Pick
By Pete Ruden
Ole Miss has a few key advantages on Saturday.
For starters, the Razorbacks have struggled to keep chaos off the field, ranking just 91st in Havoc Allowed. Well, that’s bad news against an Ole Miss defense that leads the nation in Havoc.
The Rebels should make a living in the backfield here. It’s also worth noting that the Hogs don’t generate a game-changing push up front with a mark of 50th in Offensive Line Yards.
And with a top-10 rank in Passing Success Rate allowed, they should make things very difficult on Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green, who has thrown a pick in all but two games this season (with one of those clean sheets coming against Arkansas-Pine Bluff).
The Rebels also sit in the top 10 in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards, so the Hogs could struggle to put together quality drives — especially with running back Ja’Quinden Jackson likely out.
Offensively, Ole Miss will receive a huge boost if Tre Harris returns. The Rebels’ leading receiver missed last week’s game against Oklahoma, and it was evident that Jaxson Dart missed him in the passing game in a first half that saw Oklahoma take a lead into the break.
He has racked up 499 yards and caught 28 more passes than the next closest player, so his return would be huge for an Ole Miss team that ranks second in the SEC and 13th nationally in scoring.
I’ll take the Rebs at -7 or better. Hotty Toddy!
Pick: Ole Miss -7 or Better
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Northwestern vs. Purdue Pick
Northwestern vs. Purdue is a fascinating handicap in Week 10.
Northwestern is playing consecutive road games, while Purdue is coming off a bye week.
The Boilermakers are taking money, up from -1 to -2.5. I’m heavily against, using two separate PRO Systems, which essentially debunk a couple of myths in Week 10.
Northwestern shouldn’t be docked for playing on the road for a consecutive week. Our “Road Streak” PRO System finds that certain Power 4 conferences fare well when traveling, covering the spread 57% of the time.
Also, another PRO System is active, against Purdue: “Scoring Streak Fade.” Home teams favored after a terrible offensive performance only cover 41% of the time, opening up another edge to Northwestern.
Also, our PRO Projections favor the ‘Cats, making the visitors a strong play for the early-morning slate.
Pick: Northwestern +2.5 (Play to +1)
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Vanderbilt vs. Auburn Pick
Vanderbilt is one of the most improved teams in the nation this season and certainly one of the most dangerous teams as well. After years of struggles, its reputation as a doormat of the SEC had preceded itself, but that's not the case anymore.
This season, Vanderbilt has had statement wins over Alabama, Virginia Tech and Kentucky while taking some of the very best — — Texas and Missouri — to the limit thanks to a brilliant new coaching staff and excellent transfers.
The Commodores are led by quarterback Diego Pavia, who has been nothing short of stellar. He has transitioned seamlessly into the SEC after starting his career at New Mexico State.
Pavia will look to do what has never been done before and lead Vanderbilt to a road win at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Even though the all-time series between Vanderbilt and Auburn is 21-22-1, a win has evaded the Commodores at Jordan-Hare; however, the same can't be said for Pavia and the coaching staff.
Last year, as members of the New Mexico State Aggies, Pavia was victorious at Jordan-Hare in a 31-10 trouncing of the Tigers.
Pavia leads a tremendously difficult-to-defend option offense that has been wreaking havoc in the SEC.
The importance of Pavia can't be overstated, and the combination of his talent and discretion post-snap has marked one of the biggest turnarounds in college football.
In addition to being the leading rusher on the team, Pavia is averaging 191.8 yards passing per game while completing 64.5% of his attempts/ He has also made good decisions with 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions.
Vanderbilt will have to contend with an Auburn ground game that has been hot in recent weeks, but this Vanderbilt team enters this game pretty healthy and has stood up to teams that are more established in the trenches.
Lastly, the Tigers' Achilles' heel has been turnovers, and they enter this game ranked 126th in the nation in turnover margin.
Auburn certainly will not be a pushover, but this 8-point line is too long given what Vanderbilt has shown it's capable of this season. I think this provides an excellent opportunity to back Vanderbilt on a juicy moneyline.
The error-prone Tigers will be facing one of the grittiest teams in the nation, and an outright road win shouldn’t come as a surprise. Back Vanderbilt to win straight up at +200 or better.
Pick: Vanderbilt ML +250 (Play to +200)
