Hopefully, you all had a super profitable noon slate on this fine Week 2 Saturday.
Luckily, we have more of our staff's college football best bets for the afternoon slate.
Read on for some college football best bets and NCAAF afternoon picks for the games on Saturday, September 6, including Collin Wilson's take on Ole Miss-Kentucky and more.
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College Football Best Bets for Saturday Afternoon
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Collin's Best Bet From His Card
The Rebels have been a completely different team on the road in SEC play over the past two seasons, generally lighting up the scoreboard at home.
Across the past two seasons, Ole Miss has failed to score more than 27 points on the road against Florida, LSU, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Georgia and Alabama.
The box score was not the cleanest for quarterback Austin Simmons in the Rebels' season opener against Georgia State. The sophomore posted three Turnover-Worthy Plays and an additional fumble against the Panthers.
Kentucky has continued defensive success in defending the zone read option, the preferred offensive scheme for head coach Lane Kiffin.
While this may be a revenge game from an Ole Miss loss that kept the Rebels out of the playoff last year, look for Kentucky to continue to flex on the Rebels' mistake-prone offense.
Check out Collin's full Cy-Hawk breakdown and entire Week 2 card here:
Pick: Kentucky +9.5 (-110, Fanatics)
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Stuckey's Best Bet From His Spots
By Stuckey
A service academy laying over three touchdowns? The 'dog will always pique my interest in that scenario (although Navy isn't certainly much more explosive than in years past).
The problem in this case is that it requires one to place real currency on Trent Dilfer and the dumpster fire UAB program. Reluctantly, I bit.
Navy did win in Birmingham last year by a score of 41-18 as a 5.5-point favorite. However, both teams had 22 first downs, and UAB finished with only about 50 fewer total yards (452-395).
The Blazers did successfully move the ball, but just shot themselves in the foot with two turnovers and over 100 penalty yards.
The offense has enough juice to put up some points against a Navy defense that lost its top two linebackers and three key defensive backs from one of its best secondaries in years.
The biggest concern for UAB is its defense, which was tormented by Alabama State last week. The Blazers should be healthier this week on that side of the ball, but the front seven is super reliant on a lot of lower-level guys.
I did like a lot of the transfers they added on the back end, but the results weren't great in Week 1 against an FCS opponent.
Navy did whatever it wanted on offense in last year's meeting. Still, the Midshipmen do have some questions along the offensive line, particularly at tackle — a position of uber-importance in terms of communication up front.
Can UAB take advantage? Probably not, but it did at least see this new-look Navy offense last year.
Additionally, the Blazers hired Steve Russ (and several NFL assistants) to run the defense in the offseason. Russ spent years with Air Force, so he has plenty of experience game-planning for these types of offenses. That's a potentially significant edge.
Bottom line, this is too many points for a UAB offense that can keep this close enough. I project Navy as just an 18-point favorite.
Plus, Navy has some looming regression in the red zone and turnover departments after last season. The Blazers may also have a special teams edge in this one.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 2 Saturday Spots here:
Pick: UAB +21 (-110, BetMGM)
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Ianniello's Best Bet From His Group of 5 Column
Full disclosure, I bet Cincinnati at -20.5 and liked it a lot more when it was under 21.
So, while I am more hesitant to lay over three touchdowns, there is still a good chance Cincinnati blows the doors off Bowling Green.
The Bearcats suffered a close season-opening loss to Nebraska after a back-breaking interception from Brendan Sorsby. However, after playing last Thursday, they have had two extra days to prepare for Bowling Green.
The Falcons secured a 26-7 win in Eddie George’s head coaching debut, but they didn’t look impressive. They managed just 26 points against Lafayette, and that included a kick return touchdown.
Bowling Green returned just one starter from last year’s defense, and the offense lost stud tight end Harold Fannin, who was essentially the entire offense. The Falcons also lost their entire running back room and top two receivers from last year’s offense.
Journeymen quarterback Drew Pyne threw for just 109 yards in his first start for the Falcons, and they totaled just 268 yards of offense against an FCS defense.
Cincinnati has a talented quarterback in Sorsby. He threw for 18 touchdowns last season and added nine scores on the ground. He rushed for 96 yards and two touchdowns against Nebraska’s defense and should be able to carve up the Bowling Green front.
Sorsby and the Bearcats have had extra time to think about that devastating interception and surely want to get that taste out of their mouths here.
I am not a believer in Scott Satterfield in general, but he has done a good job in these spots. Satterfield-led teams are 26-17-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
The Bearcats should blow out the Falcons in front of their home crowd.
Check out all of Ianniello's Group of 5 best bets here:
Pick: Cincinnati -22.5 (-110, BetMGM)
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Ziefel's Top Player Prop
By Doug Ziefel
Lastly, let's target another rush-heavy offense in the Kentucky Wildcats.
Kentucky grinded out a win over Toledo in Week 1, running the ball 65% of the time en route to 24 points.
While the Wildcats are expected to be in a trailing game script this week against Ole Miss, offensive coordinator Brad White did not express a ton of confidence in Zach Calzada, despite having plenty of experience.
Another surprise is that returning wide receiver Ja'Mori Maclin was buried in terms of target share. He caught his lone target for just 11 yards. Maclin was behind the perceived WR4 and both tight ends in targets.
The overall lack of aggressiveness from the Wildcats' offense is concerning, as they will need to punch back against Ole Miss at some point.
However, with their likely approach being to shorten the game by running the ball and chewing the clock, Maclin's upside is capped aside from him making one big play.
Need a College Football SGP for Saturday? Here's one for Ole Miss-Kentucky from Collin and Ziefel's best bets:
Pick: Ja'Mori Maclin Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115, bet365)
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Our Featured Bet Labs System For Week 2
The Right Favorite is a college football system built on recognizing when the betting market underestimates a favorite.
In the regular season, when an opponent is coming off a loss by seven to 23 points, perception often inflates their chances of rebounding.
Yet, those weaknesses typically carry over into the next game.
By focusing on contests where the total is set between 55 and 100, the system narrows in on games expected to have higher scoring, which makes it more difficult for struggling teams to keep pace.
Limiting the sample to the first 11 games ensures the analysis applies before postseason adjustments in motivation and preparation occur.
Finally, the spread filter targets situations where the line is set with the other side catching points, but not in extreme ranges, allowing favorites to deliver consistent covers.
Together, these conditions create a profile where the favorite is positioned as the stronger play despite public bias suggesting otherwise.
This system is active for one game today, North Texas vs. Western Michigan.
Western Michigan lost by 17 in East Lansing last week, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the public hop on the Broncos in this Week 2 matchup as a home ‘dog. They’re likely battle-tested now after facing a Big Ten squad.
However, our PRO betting system suggests that we should reject that hypothesis.
Instead, I’d rather focus on Western Michigan’s inexperienced defense, which returned only three starters from last year’s squad, facing off against up-and-coming star quarterback Drew Mestemaker.
You can always trust the Mean Green offense under head coach Eric Morris, and the offensive line is super experienced. With that support around him, Mestemaker has done nothing but exceed expectations in his first few outings, including posting an absurd .81 EPA per Dropback last week against Lamar.
North Texas exploded for 51 points last week. While it was against an FCS defense, I’m a believer in Mestemaker and the typically elite North Texas air-raid attack.
Hopefully, the defense continues to take more strides under first-year coordinator Skyler Cassidy, who coached up an elite defense at Sam Houston last year.
Like our Bet Labs systems? Get an Action PRO subscription for more! Click here:
Pick: North Texas -10 (-110, BetMGM)
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Breese's Full Action App Card
Need more Week 2 wagers? Check out everything that our guy Breese is targeting in the Action App!
If you haven't already, make sure you download the free award-winning Action Network App to track all your bets and tail all of your favorite experts:
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