Let's keep Week 12 rolling with more college football best bets and NCAAF picks.
Oklahoma plays Alabama in a major SEC showdown. Michigan State hosts Penn State after the Nittany Lions' heartbreaker against Indiana last week. The red-hot Red Raiders host UCF in the Big 12.
Finally, we're targeting some Group of 5 games in the Mountain West and CUSA.
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College Football Best Bets for Saturday Afternoon
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Oklahoma vs. Alabama Best Bet
Alabama has had consistent issues with mobile quarterbacks.
South Carolina gave the Tide all it could handle thanks to LaNorris Sellers leading the Gamecocks in rushing yards with a touchdown.
Missouri lost to Alabama by a field goal after a Herculean effort from quarterback Beau Pribula, leading the Tigers in rushing with 61 yards and a touchdown.
Those numbers pale in comparison to the season opener with Tommy Castellanos from Florida State, who went for 78 yards on the ground with a touchdown.
John Mateer heated up on designed rush attempts against Tennessee and can be a major factor in the outcome of Week 12.
Ty Simpson may have issues getting the Alabama offense down the field against the Sooners. Oklahoma ranks 10th among FBS defenses in creating contested catches, an issue for targets such as Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams.
There will be no help from the run game, as Jam Miller averaged 1.6 yards per carry against LSU. The Tide rank 112th nationally in rush efficiency and are now going against the best run defense in FBS.
Action Network projects Alabama as a 6-point favorite, but the matchups indicate a heavy Oklahoma advantage through defense and on the ground with Mateer.
With the recent history of mobile quarterbacks creating close calls for Alabama, look for Mateer to potentially throw a roadblock in the Crimson Tide's quest to win the SEC.
Read Collin's full Week 12 card here:
Pick: Oklahoma +6 or Better
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Penn State vs. Michigan State Best Bet
By Stuckey
It's pretty amazing that both of these teams started 3-0 and then dropped six straight to start Big 10 play.
While that's maybe not too surprising for the Spartans, it certainly is for a Penn State squad that started the season ranked No. 2.
This particular bet is almost entirely a pure spot fade of Penn State following a heartbreaking loss to undefeated Indiana in the final minute last Saturday. The Nittany Lions clearly put forth an all-in effort in what became their Super Bowl in a lost season. That result also came after road games against Iowa and Ohio State.
Can the Nittany Lions get up off the mat for a fourth straight week for a pretty meaningless game in East Lansing against Michigan State? I'll make them prove they can win by a margin here.
Meanwhile, Michigan State will benefit from coming off a much-needed bye week. Keep in mind this has been one of the most injury-ravaged Power Conference teams in the country, so I'd expect them to be in much better shape injury-wise following the two-week break.
The Spartans did even start to get a bit healthier before the bye, which led to some more promising results, including an absolute highway robbery loss at Minnesota in overtime, in which they out-gained the Gophers 467-301.
That was the best the offense has looked all year, with Alessio Milivojevic getting his first career start at quarterback. He averaged 11.1 yards per attempt (20-for-28, 311), which is something Aidan Chiles has never done in his career. While Jonathan Smith has yet to name a starter for this week, I'd imagine the freshman gets the nod once again this week. However, I wouldn't rule out some packages or Chiles throughout the game.
The spot is priced in a bit, but I'm still okay taking over a touchdown against a Penn State team that could come out completely flat out of the gates, while Smith should have a plus script coming out of the bye.
If Michigan State can jump on the Nittany Lions early, will they show enough fight in a season that has spiraled out of control? We shall see.
For what it's worth, Jonathan Smith-led teams are 31-21 ATS as an underdog, including 5-0 this season. His teams are also 10-2 ATS as an underdog with extra time to prepare.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 12 Situational Spots here:
Pick: Michigan State +7.5 or Better
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Middle Tennessee vs. Western Kentucky Best Bet
I expected Middle Tennessee to take a jump in its second year under Derek Mason, but that hasn’t been the case.
The Blue Raiders are 1-8, only escaping with a one-point victory against Nevada back in early September.
Western Kentucky is 7-2 and has a good chance of returning to the Conference USA title game.
Quarterback Maverick McIvor has missed the last two games with an injury but is expected to be available. Even if freshman Rodney Tisdale gets the start, he threw for over 300 yards with four touchdown passes in his last start against New Mexico State.
Whoever is behind center has a loaded wide receiver room to work with.
Matthew Henry, K.D. Hutchinson and Moussa Barry should have no problem getting behind this Middle Tennessee defense that ranks 132nd nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed.
The Hilltoppers throw the ball at a top-10 rate, and the Blue Raiders have been horrendous at defending the pass. They have allowed 24 passing touchdowns this season. Only UMass has allowed more, and they’ve played an extra game.
Middle Tennessee also throws the ball at a top-10 rate. The Blue Raiders cannot run the ball at all.
This is one of the best Hilltopper defenses we have seen in recent years. They rank 28th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed and have a top 40 PFF Coverage grade.
Safety Jaylen Lewis has been tremendous on the backend of this defense. Opposing quarterbacks have just a 19.2 Passer Rating against him.
These are two teams that want to throw the ball all over the yard. They each sit in the top 10 in passing attempts per game.
One defense has been terrific against the pass, allowing just six passing scores all season. The other has been a disaster, ranking among the worst pass defenses in the country.
Pick: Western Kentucky -13.5 or Better
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UCF vs. Texas Tech Player Prop
By Doug Ziefel
Next, we head to Lubbock, where Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton has found himself taking a step back this season.
Texas Tech has a dynamic duo at running back that is highly efficient, taking the offensive load off Morton.
In seasons past, Morton was a gunslinger in a vertical offense. That's no longer the case, as we've seen Morton go under this total in five of eight games already this season.
This week, Morton faces a stout UCF secondary that ranks 18th nationally in passing yards allowed per game and 68th in opponent completion percentage.
Despite the tough matchup, Texas Tech is a big favorite, but we should expect the Red Raiders to build that lead by grinding on the ground.
Pick: Behren Morton Under 251.5 Pass Yards
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San Jose State vs. Nevada Best Bet
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Small Dog in Small Game is a college football system built around the idea that underdogs in lower-profile matchups can be undervalued when attention and betting volume are limited.
These games typically kick off in the afternoon or evening window and occur early in the season, within the first nine contests, when teams are still developing identities. The underdog in this range is slight to moderate, with spreads of 2 to 11.5 points, and often comes into the game with little momentum, having won or lost only a game or two in a short streak.
Because betting activity on these contests is lower than the daily average, the market is less efficient, and lines move very little from open to close, creating opportunities in which perception has more influence than true performance.
When public money leans toward the favorite but not overwhelmingly, the small dog benefits from value created by these market dynamics and covers more often than expected.
Want more PRO betting systems? Get an Action PRO subscription today:
Pick: Nevada +9 or Better
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Duck's Full Action App Betting Card
Need more picks for Saturday's slate? It's always wise to see what our guy Duck is betting on.
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the free award-winning Action Network App to track all your bets and tail all of your favorite experts:
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