We begin the college football Week 9 betting slate with my four afternoon spots, featuring USC vs. Cal and more.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 9, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 32-25-0 +3.38 units (56.1%)
- Overall: 77-45-1 +26.60 units (63.1%)
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Stuckey's Week 9 Afternoon Situational Spots
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Kansas +10 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Purdue +2.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Florida +14.5 |
  | 4 p.m. | California +11 |
Kansas +10 vs. Oklahoma
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
Following a successful fade of the Sooners last week, I'm going right back to the well with rock chalk at home. Even after last Saturday's scare against UCF, Oklahoma remains overvalued in the market, in my opinion.
The Sooners do have one of the most impressive wins of the season on a neutral field against Texas.
However, keep in mind they allowed over 500 yards of total offense in that game and benefited from a 3-0 turnover margin, a goal-line stand and horrid clock management by Steve Sarkisian that led to OU's last-minute game-winning touchdown drive against a Texas defense sitting back in prevent.
Oklahoma easily could have lost that game to a banged-up Horns squad. Meanwhile, it also experienced a bit more struggles against SMU and Cincinnati than those final scores indicate.
It also ranks second nationally in turnover margin at +10 and enjoyed quite a bit of good fortune in scoring opportunities on both sides of the ball. A few advanced metrics suggest potential looming regression that could work against the Sooners in the near future.
While quarterback Dillon Gabriel has played at a high enough level to warrant serious Heisman consideration, the rushing attack isn't firing on all cylinders behind an offensive line that has some issues. Marcus Major has 25 more carries than anybody else on the roster but has averaged fewer than four yards per attempt through seven games.
Additionally, the Sooners will continue to really miss leading receiver Andrel Anthony (now out for the season with an injury) at a position without much reliable depth.
The offense now just doesn't have the same level of explosiveness without Anthony and three pass catchers lost to the NFL or portal in the offseason who combined for 18 receptions for 264 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last season's matchup against Kansas.
On the other side of the ball, the Sooners boast a rock-solid run defense that grades out elite in almost every metric. However, the back end can be exploited a bit in coverage, which is where I expect Kansas to attack.
Even if Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels can't suit up due to a back injury (I'd call him doubtful at this point), Jason Bean has demonstrated he can adequately lead this high-powered offense over the past two seasons, including last year's 42-point outburst against these Sooners in Norman.
So far in 2023, Bean has completed 65% of his passes with a 9:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio to go along with an impressive 9.2 yards per attempt, which ranks in the top 10 among all FBS-qualified quarterbacks.
I have the utmost respect for Kansas head coach Lance Leipold and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who run one of the most difficult offensive schemes to prepare for in the entire country. It's an offense that uses a ton of pre-snap motion and misdirection while spreading the ball out to a multitude of targets.
With the Jayhawks coming off of a bye, not only should they be much healthier and fresher, but the offensive staff should have plenty of new wrinkles that Oklahoma won't have on tape.
Plus, Jason Bean gets extra time to jell with the offense after being thrown into action without ideal rep time with the first-string offense in previous weeks.
Lastly, the Oklahoma special teams are a bit of a mess right now. I currently have that unit ranked outside the top 100 nationally, while Kansas has undergone a special teams resurgence since Leipold arrived in Lawrence.
Through eight weeks, I actually have Kansas ranked inside the top 10 on special teams. That advantage for the Jayhawks could certainly come into play and potentially decide the cover.
Ultimately, I just can't get to double digits in this Big 12 showdown.
The Oklahoma offense should have its way with a porous Kansas defense, but I believe the Jayhawks — who find themselves in a great situational spot — can keep pace as they did in 2022 on the road in a game that featured 92 total points.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Big 12 home teams have the highest ROI of any conference at +3.6%. The only other league with a positive ROI over that span is the Pac-12 with a minuscule +0.5%.
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Purdue +2.5 at Nebraska
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
If I had to pick a favorite spot of the week, this Big Ten matchup would get the nod.
On the surface, one might be tempted to lay under a field goal with 4-3 Nebraska at home against 2-5 Purdue. However, the Boilermakers have been a bit unlucky in a number of areas that have led to some misleading results against one of the 10 most difficult schedules in the country to date.
Meanwhile, I have Nebraska's strength of schedule ranked right around the national average.
Not only am I buying low on Purdue after a bye week, which has added benefit in the first year of a new staff, but the injury situation for the Nebraska offense has turned dire.
After already losing wide receivers Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda and Marcus Washington in addition to running backs Gabe Ervin Jr. and Rahmir Johnson to season-ending injuries earlier in the season, the Cornhuskers saw their three top offensive linemen — who had combined for 78 career starts — and leading receiver Billy Kemp join the wounded list in last week's victory over Northwestern.
As a result, head coach Matt Rhule, who said he's never seen a worse injury situation a few days ago, will need to rely on a number of inexperienced freshmen and sophomores to fill in. There will likely be major growing pains.
From a matchup perspective, Nebraska has one of the nation's least efficient passing attacks, which Purdue's slow-footed secondary will welcome with open arms.
The Boilermakers can simply load the box against a severely shorthanded skill position group and offensive line.
Additionally, the Cornhuskers' stingy defense has fared much better against the run, but that's not as relevant this week against the pass-heavy Purdue Air Raid attack led by Texas transfer quarterback Hudson Card and new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell.
Before locking this in, I'm waiting to see if it gets back up to +3. If it doesn't, I'll still bet it and would play down to +1.
Notable Nugget
Per Action Labs, Purdue is the least profitable home team in FBS games since 2005 at a paltry 42-70-1 (37.5%) ATS. However, the Boilermakers have turned a nice profit on the road over that period at 49-37-4 (57.0%).
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Florida +14.5 vs. Georgia
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
I'm headed back to the Georgia fade train, which has cashed six out of seven times to start 2023.
Coming into the season, I thought Georgia might be very complacent on a weekly basis after what I heard coming out of camp. It also just made logical sense for a back-to-back national champion that knew it had an absolute cupcake schedule, especially for an SEC team.
Fortunately, I had a sneaky suspicion Kirby Smart would get his kids up from the start against an undefeated Kentucky team between the hedges in prime time after almost losing to Auburn.
Well, even after the bye week in Jacksonville for a hyped rivalry full of hate on both sides, I could see Georgia coming out a bit flat against another team that will take its best shot, like every Georgia opponent will inevitably do this season.
The Bulldogs' advanced metrics obviously all generally look outstanding for one of the most talented FBS rosters, but they've also benefited from a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 100 nationally.
Even against those significantly inferior opponents, just take a look at the scores at the end of the first quarter:
If you exclude Kentucky, the Dawgs have scored the same number of first-quarter points (24) as their six other opponents for an average score of 4-4 after the first 15 minutes.
That's even worse than it may sound when considering five of those six teams have defenses ranked outside my top 90 nationally.
Unless I truly believe the Bulldogs will come out with their hair on fire in a great spot, I'll assume this will remain a trend until they truly believe they need to bring their A-game from the jump.
And if the Gators can hang around early, I really like their chances to keep this within two touchdowns and wouldn't be surprised if they gave Georgia a semi-sweat late.
In addition to the complacency angle, this is a Georgia team I've also had lower than the market from a pure power-ratings perspective since the first week of the season. To me, this team is not close to the level of either national champion club from the past two years.
Not only has Kirby Smart seen a mass exodus of NFL talent, including supremely underrated quarterback Stetson Bennett, but he also replaced offensive coordinator Todd Monken (now with the Ravens) with Mike Bobo, which I believe is a material downgrade.
In regards to Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, his numbers pass the smell test, but again, he's faced a laughable schedule of opposing pass defenses to date.
Plus, he now won't have the nation's best tight end — and maybe best overall weapon — in Brock Bowers, who suffered an injury in his last game against Vanderbilt that will sideline him for a while.
Bowers has hauled in nearly a quarter of Beck's completions in addition to four of his 14 touchdown passes. Georgia will obviously miss the raw production, but Bowers also opened up so much for the rest of the offense with all of the attention he required from opposing defenses.
During his absence, the offense will undoubtedly take a step back and likely take some time to adjust, even if he will be replaced with another talented tight end in Oscar Delp.
Without Bowers, Florida defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong can stick to his roots and come in with an ultra-aggressive game plan.
Armstrong, one of the top young defensive minds in college football — just look at the drop-off at Southern Miss after his departure — will likely bring plenty of exotic blitzes and utilize a heavy dose of simulated pressures to force the inexperienced Beck into a key mistake or two. Based on Beck's splits, that could lead to success.
On the season, he's yet to take a sack when not blitzed, but he has a near 25% Pressure-to-Sack Ratio when blitzed, with two Turnover-Worthy Plays to only one Big-Time Throw.
His average depth of target against the blitz also drops by almost three full yards, as he tends to check down quickly in those situations, which could help Florida limit the issues it has experienced in allowing long catches.
Georgia will still probably connect on quite a few explosive passing plays against the aggressive Gators defense, but I also expect Beck to turn it over for a fourth straight game.
Plus, it helps that Georgia's run game hasn't fully figured it out yet, primarily due to injuries in the backfield and along an offensive line that has dealt with constant reshuffling. We'll see if right tackle Amarius Mims returns, although he'd probably still be on a snap count and not at 100%.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia once again owns one of the stingiest units in FBS. However, it has seen an uptick in explosive plays allowed, doesn't get a ton of pressure and has struggled a bit more than usual against the run.
Those deficiencies were on full display in a one-possession win against a completely one-dimensional and anemic Auburn offense. I'm sure the Gators will look to replicate some of the things that the Tigers did in that game.
Generally speaking, the Florida offense has been better than expected.
Quarterback Graham Mertz has a sky-high 76.2% completion percentage along with 12 touchdown passes to just two interceptions.
Despite some offensive line reshuffling of their own, this rebuilt Gators offense is getting more comfortable in Billy Napier's scheme with each passing week.
I expect Florida to use a high frequency of 12 personnel to attack the Georgia run defense with a heavier dose of the explosive Trevor Etienne on standard downs and Montrell Johnson in short-yardage situations.
The Gators have the highest Success Rate of any team in that personnel grouping, which would give them maximum bulk up front while keeping all of their best skill position players on the field in Etienne, stud wideout Ricky Pearsall, pass-catching tight end Arlis Boardingham and emerging freshman wide receiver Eugene Wilson, who could also provide juice in the running game with some end-arounds and other looks.
Mertz may even use his legs to convert a few third downs to extend drives, which similarly athletic quarterbacks have done quite a bit against Georgia this season.
However, the formula, in my opinion, is more runs in heavy personnel and an expanded short-passing attack, which can both work against Georgia. Then, you just hope for a couple of explosive Etienne runs and connected deep shots to Pearsall off play action.
Not only do I show value in this number, but I like some of the matchups for a Florida team that should play up in this spot. With the offense continuing to improve and Armstrong getting two weeks to prepare for a Bowers-less defense, I like the Gators to keep this within two scores in a game that will be played at a super slow pace, which will limit the number of possessions under the new clock rules.
Lastly, Billy Napier has thrived in the underdog role historically and has demonstrated he'll go to extreme lengths to keep scoring until the bitter end when trailing.
Hopefully, that won't be necessary for the cover, but it's nice having Backdoor Billy in your back pocket if Florida trails by three scores late in the fourth quarter.
Are you a resident of Georgia or Florida and want to bet on this weekend's game? Look into DFS options like PrizePicks, Fliff, or Betr as an alternative to traditional sportsbooks!
Notable Nugget
Billy Napier owns a ridiculous career 19-6 ATS record (76.0%) as an underdog, covering by over seven points per game. That includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark against ranked SEC foes during his short time in Gainesville.
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California +11 vs. USC
4 p.m. ET ⋅ Pac-12 Network
I made the mistake of backing the Trojans as a favorite last week, but they failed to even win outright in a great situational spot against a Utah team that had a number of backups at key positions.
I won't be making that mistake this week, as I'm backing the 3-4 Bears, who easily could have two more wins if not for some bad variance in close games.
On paper, the USC defense should shred a downward-trending Cal defense under head coach Justin Wilcox. However, I have no reason to believe that a much-improved Bears offense won't do the same against a sad USC defense that simply isn't progressing under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch.
Over the past four games, the Trojans have allowed a pathetic 41 points per game.
Regardless of who gets the nod under center for Cal, which has played three different quarterbacks due to injuries, it should move the ball with relative ease by leaning on a very efficient ground game that ranks among the top 30 in Success Rate and EPA per Play against a horrendous USC run defense that ranks outside the top 80 in Rush Success Rate Allowed.
This is also a great situational spot for the Bears on paper. While Cal has had two weeks to rest up, get healthy and prepare for USC, the Trojans will play for a sixth straight Saturday after five exhausting games across four cities.
Fatigue is certainly a potential factor, but I'd be much more concerned about the current mental state of Lincoln Riley's bunch.
Coming into the season, USC had exceptionally high expectations, which have all essentially been wiped away after back-to-back losses.
There's a really good chance the Trojans, who already have looked a little checked out at times on the sidelines, could come out with a lack of focus in a colossal sandwich spot.
Following a pair of emotional games against Utah and Notre Dame, Riley will try to keep his kids focused on 3-4 Cal prior to games against Washington, Oregon and UCLA to close out the regular season.
That's no easy task, especially with a potentially deflated group.
When Cal made the trip down I-5 to visit USC in 2022, it lost in a 41-35 shootout. I expect a similar type of game on Saturday in Berkeley.
Notable Nugget
Justin Wilcox owns a 26-14-1 (65.0%) ATS mark as an underdog, including 17-8 (68.0%) when catching more than a touchdown, covering by 5.7 points per game.
