You can blame the Conference USA for this two-leg parlay. With so many Group of Five games taking place before this piece is published, the pickings were slim.
So, instead of reaching for Wyoming (clutches pearls), Air Force (gasps) or Middle Tennessee (faints) as road dogs, I’m playing things safe this week with two plays.
We’ll start by piling on Trent Dilfer and end by backing the coach who should've been at UAB all along.
Here's my college football Group of 5 parlay for Week 10.
College Football Group of 5 Parlay for Week 10
- Tulsa ML +120
- UL Monroe +10.5
Parlay Odds: +320 (BetMGM)
Tulsa vs. UAB Pick
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| UAB Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
Tracking motivation can be a tricky exercise. But in the transfer portal era, where players “check out” mid-season, spotting “white flag” signs is crucial. We don’t have a “white flag” warning in Birmingham, as the collapse has already happened.
UAB has lost six straight, all by double digits. Local and national writers are calling for Dilfer’s job. Starting quarterback Jacob Zeno has been ruled out for this game. And to make matters worse, this defense has cratered.
The Blazers are 130th in available yards surrendered. But it doesn’t stop there. Pick a metric and UAB is in the bottom 15% of college football. The Blazers lack fundamentals in both tackling (109th) and coverage (104th).
Even bad defenses can be bailed out by generating Havoc or forcing turnovers, but UAB is out of luck in both departments. This punchless defense is 131st in Havoc and has forced just five turnovers all season long.
Against a Golden Hurricane offense that's suddenly surging, that’s bad news.
Speaking of Tulsa, it just completed the largest comeback in college football this season. Staring down the barrel of a 42-17 deficit, the Golden Hurricane made a change at quarterback and staged a furious rally against UTSA. They would pull out a thrilling one-point win.
The win reframes the rest of their season. Instead of packing things in, six wins and bowl eligibility no longer seems to be a pipe dream — especially with a quarterback as hot as Cooper Legas slinging the ball around.
Legas was masterful off the bench, finishing with 333 yards through the air and five scores against the Roadrunners. He’s always been a boom-or-bust player, but against UAB’s secondary, I’m banking on A.J. & Big Justice-levels of boom.
I would play this down to even money at +100.
Leg 1: Tulsa ML +120
UL Monroe vs. Marshall Pick
| UL Monroe Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 47.5 -108o / -112u | +310 |
| Marshall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 47.5 -108o / -112u | -400 |
Bryant Vincent should be in the running for every major coaching award. The Warhawks were a Year 0-rebuild. Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings had them 134th out of 134 teams back in August. And Connelly wasn’t out on a limb with that prediction.
UL Monroe was getting blasted by nearly 18 points per game last season. The roster had little by way of experience or talent. It was 133rd in returning production and 130th in composite roster ranking.
Despite all of those limitations, ULM has continually exceeded expectations. Placing aside their paycheck game against Texas, the Warhawks have been on the warpath.
So, why the advantageous number here? Well, ULM did just lay an egg against South Alabama. Three turnovers and a poor effort against the run sunk it last week. The Jags killed the Warhawks on the ground for 355 yards and six touchdowns.
And that’s what this handicap is all about, the run game.
Marshall can really run it, which comes as little surprise under head coach Charles Huff. A.J. Turner has been a breakout star, threatening to take it to the house on every carry just like Rasheen Ali did for the Thundering Herd. Marshall got back to basics and is top-35 in both Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards.
But ULM can fight fire with fire here. The Warhawks are primed to utilize Marshall’s offensive game plan against it. Marshall is outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate defense, despite solid tackling numbers from PFF.
What that says to me is that the Herd continue to struggle with their run fits.
Ahmad Hardy is one of the best freshman backs in the country, and he’s going to be the focal point of ULM’s attack on Saturday afternoon. He’s gone over the century mark in three of his last four games, and given the Warhawks' rushing metrics, there’s no reason to ease up on his workload.
The Warhawks are sixth in Rush Rate and 21st in Rush EPA.
With both teams bludgeoning the opposing defenses, this game will essentially feature a running clock. Fewer possessions is ideal when backing a double-digit dog.
In the end, I trust Vincent. If you’re a trends bettor or put any stock in situational angles, Huff has underperformed against the spread in spots like this. His 7-10 ATS record as a home favorite is one of the worst in the Sun Belt.
I would play this down to ULM +9.5.
Leg 2: UL Monroe +10.5
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