I’m back this week with a three-leg Group of Five parlay that's underdog-heavy.
We’ll start on Maryland’s Western Shore for a service academy showdown between Air Force and Navy. Then, we’ll travel nearly 3,000 miles for a Mountain West Conference game between two also-rans. And we’ll wrap things up down on the bayou for a pivotal Sun Belt showdown between Louisiana and Georgia State.
Air Force vs. Navy
Air Force is the first service academy to start the season 6-0 in 20 years.
It's dominated with a traditional triple-option attack that's leading the nation in rushing. The next team, Liberty, is trailing the Falcons' rushing average by 60 yards per game. And when Air Force does put the ball into orbit, it's killing teams with explosive plays. The Falcons rank second nationally in passing explosiveness and third in Success Rate.
So, why get off this jet plane now? Two reasons: the loss of Zac Larrier at quarterback and one glaring trend when service academies face one another.
Larrier was playing at an incredibly high level and could now be out for the season with a knee injury. But even before his injury, Air Force was still unlikely to cover this number.
The strategic advantage of facing a defense that's trying to prepare for the triple in a matter of days is gone when facing Navy. It explains why these games are often so close.
In Air Force’s last 16 games as a favorite against Navy, dating all the way back to 1998, the Falcons are 4-12 against the spread. And in their last six trips to Annapolis as a favorite, Air Force is just 1-5 against the closing number. When you expand the data set to all three service academies, double-digit underdogs have cashed at a 64% clip.
But this isn’t purely a spot to fade a Larrier-less Falcons squad or to rely on ancient ATS data.
Navy has also been playing well of late. The Middies have two wins in their last four and gave Memphis a four-quarter battle on the road.
Alex Tecza has been a true weapon at fullback. In his last four games, he’s scored four touchdowns, rushed for 457 yards and averaged nine yards per carry.
Given the new clock rules, you could see entire quarters melt away with two or three total possessions. So, stops and turnovers will be magnified in a significant way. For that reason, I’ll gladly take Navy with the points since it’s over the key number of 10.
Play: Navy +10.5 (Play to +10)
Utah State vs. San Jose State
The Spartans need a 4-1 finish to the season to go bowling, but they are far better than their 2-5 record indicates.
San Jose State has faced an ungodly gauntlet this season that included USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo and Boise State. It lost all five of those games but fought both Toledo and Boise State deep into the fourth quarter on the road.
Its defensive metrics are out of whack after facing so many elite rushing attacks. What isn’t misleading, however, is the offensive upside. The Spartans come in at 17th in explosiveness on offense and 31st in Success Rate on the ground.
Running back Kairee Robinson has turned it up a notch in his senior season, finding the end zone nine times in his last five games.
This is why I love SJSU in this spot against a porous Utah State run defense. The Aggies rank 121st in Success Rate against the run and have already given up 16 rushing touchdowns (125th). This will allow Chevan Cordeiro to play within himself, which should translate to fewer turnover-worthy throws out of him.
And finally, there’s the Brent Brennan factor. He’s a great play coming off of a win.
Since 2018, SJSU has covered 62.5% of the time following a win, the second-best mark in the Mountain West Conference. I believe in him to get things turned around against a vulnerable Utah State defense.
Play: San Jose State -4 (Play to -6)
Georgia State vs. Louisiana
Louisiana is a paper tiger, plain and simple.
The Ragin’ Cajuns have faced Northwestern State, Old Dominion, UAB and Buffalo. Those four teams are all outside of the Sagarin Top 100. They bolstered their résumé by going 3-1 in those games and also boosted their season-long stats by killing those teams on the ground.
Louisiana leads the Sun Belt in rushing at 224 yards per game based on those big performances. But here comes the Georgia State run defense.
The Panthers rank top-30 in both Defensive Success Rate against the run and yards per game allowed on the ground. If they can force freshman Zeon Chriss into obvious passing situations, it’s likely we’ll see him throw a handful of turnover-worthy passes as he did in his first two career starts in which he threw four interceptions.
When Georgia State has the ball, this is one of the most explosive running teams in the country. Marcus Carroll already has three games with over 150 yards rushing and at least one score. Darren Grainger continues to be a great dual-threat signal-caller, and in five of his six starts this season, he’s avoided throwing an interception.
A big part of that is the Panthers' offensive line, which ranks 20th in Havoc Allowed this season. With time to operate, Grainger and Carroll are surgical.
My projections call for this to be a pick'em, so I’m happy to take plus-money on a live dog in the thick of a Sun Belt East title run.
Georgia State is also riding high after a dominant 41-24 win over Marshall last week and appears to have all the momentum it needs to secure a critical Sun Belt road win.
Play: Georgia State ML +150 (Play to +125)
Calabrese's Week 8 Group of Five Parlay
- Navy +10.5
- San Jose State -4
- Georgia State ML +150
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