This is the time of year I affectionately refer to as the “Drive for Six” and “White Flag Season.”
There are a host of teams in the 3-5 to 4-4 range that need to string together a few more dubs to hit six wins and unlock bowl eligibility. And simultaneously, there are a handful of 2-6 or worse teams that are raising the white flag on their 2023 seasons.
These motivational/situational spots can cut both ways. They can lead to major blowouts with one team flat-out quitting. And they can also inspire an underdog to hang around with a superior opponent for longer than usual.
Let’s unpack which teams fall into which camps here in Week 9.
Last week was UConn’s last stand.
It was homecoming against a beatable opponent in USF, and it failed to pick up the victory at home. Now sitting at 1-6 with road trips to Boston College, Tennessee and James Madison on the schedule, I’m calling it. It’s white flag time for the Huskies.
In the preseason, many pundits viewed UConn as a feisty team. A strong running game paired with a stingy defense was a recipe that sent it bowling last December. Fast forward to this fall, and UConn is 110th in Rushing Success Rate and 83rd in yards per carry.
Defensively, UConn fell even further below expectations, checking in at 113th in Success Rate with a Havoc ranking of just 88th.
On the other side of this game, Boston College has exceeded expectations and is now positioned to make a run at a bowl game.
Since mid-September, the Eagles have been playing really good football. They nearly upset Florida State at home, dropping that contest by just two points. And they’ve won three straight games, including back-to-back road games.
They’ve also rushed for 300 yards in consecutive games for the first time in six years.
A big reason for that is transfer quarterback Thomas Castellanos. He has been nothing short of a nightmare for defensive coordinators this season. Last week against Georgia Tech, he threw for 255 yards, rushed for 128 yards and scored four total touchdowns.
Normally, I’d be wary of backing BC because of its porous defense, but UConn simply doesn’t have the goods offensively. The Huskies are in the running for the nation’s worst passing attack, evidenced last week against USF when Ta’Quan Roberson put up a 29.8 QBR. He also has games with QBRs of 11.5 and 8.7 this year.
I would consider playing this on the alternate line up to BC -20 as well.
Play: Boston College -14 (Play to -16.5)
Tulane continues to win, plain and simple. The Green Wave are 18-3 in their last 21 games straight up dating back to the start of last season.
But that success hasn’t translated at the window this fall. Tulane is just 3-4 against the closing number in 2023, and frankly, I think it’s because it's a bit bored.
After reaching historic heights last season and beating USC in the Cotton Bowl, getting up for AAC also-rans has become a bit of a chore.
Willie Fritz’s team is 1-3 against the spread in its last four, and its uneven tape matches that betting performance.
The Wave let UAB comfortably cover while racking up 434 total yards. Facing North Texas on Saturday, it was more of the same. The Mean Green moved the ball at will, finishing with 426 total yards. As a result, UNT hung around for four quarters, achieving a sweat-free cover.
Now, I get the chance to back a high-scoring offense catching double digits at home? Count me in.
Rice ranks 32nd in Offensive Success Rate and 15th in terms of generating explosive plays. Its well-traveled transfer quarterback, JT Daniels, is dealing. He’s thrown for over 340 yards and multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games.
Earlier this season as eight-point underdogs, Rice won outright at home, 43-41, over Houston. That win will give the Owls confidence entering this one.
And one added bonus in this game is Rice’s red-zone defense. Opponents can march up and down the field on the Owls and rack up 400, 500 or even 600 yards of total offense. But they’re no slouch inside their own 20-yard line. Rice has the 17th-best red-zone defense from a scoring percentage perspective.
Play: Rice +11 (Play to +10.5)
As we know, Spartans never retreat and they never surrender. So, I’m calling it right now and putting it on the record that SJSU is winning out and going bowling for the third time in the last four seasons.
Left for dead at 1-5, I pointed out on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast that the Spartans' rugged schedule was hiding their value. They faced nationally ranked opponents in USC, Oregon State and Air Force and also played road games at Boise State and Toledo.
Those two road games in Boise and Toledo were tight ones, with SJSU falling by four to the Rockets and eight to the Broncos. It was close to turning things around but needed to prove it on the field.
Then came New Mexico and Utah State. The Spartans beat those two teams by a combined score of 94-45.
This team is absolutely humming on offense right now. Running back Kairee Robinson has averaged 149 all-purpose yards with seven touchdowns in his last three games. But it isn’t just the offense that has righted the ship.
The defense that was a mess under Brent Brennan has forced seven turnovers in the past three games as well. After being one of the least disruptive teams from a Havoc perspective nationally, it's amassed 15 tackles for loss in the last three games.
Now, despite the Rainbow Warriors' 2-6 record, I want to state plainly that Hawaii isn’t trash. But its defense can’t stop anyone.
Four of its last five opponents have dropped 40 or more points on the ‘Bows. UNLV, San Diego State and even New Mexico found the sledding easy. San Jose State must be licking its chops.
One final gambling PSA for anyone wary of fading Hawaii on the Big Island. The ‘Bows, dating all the way back in our archives to 2003, are completely mediocre ATS at home (66-67-5 ATS). They’re also an even-steven 50% as a home dog. So, there's no Big Island advantage to speak of in this game.
Play: San Jose State -10 (Play to -13.5)
Calabrese's Week 9 College Football Group of Five Parlay
- Boston College -13
- Rice +11
- San Jose State -10
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