For the sixth straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
After picking up our second straight sweep with San Jose State and San Diego State last Saturday, we decided we had to do another one for championship weekend.
- 2018-22: 60-98, +8.3 units
- 2023: 12-14, +6.35 units
- Overall: 72-110, +14.65 units
For this week, Collin will kick things off with a road dog in the afternoon, while I'll hopefully close out another sweep in prime time.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pays right around 5-1 odds.
Wilson: Appalachian State +180
| App State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | -220 |
I enjoyed some success fading Appalachian State frequently in the first half of the season, but the Mountaineers really turned their season around about halfway through the year.
They got red-hot to close out the season with a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS), which included a massive road victory against previously undefeated James Madison.
That particular victory gives me a lot of optimism about facing Troy since the Appalachian State offensive line held up against James Madison's defensive line, allowing quarterback Joey Aguilar to connect on nine completions of 15-plus yards.
That front for App State has continuously improved throughout the season after losing both offensive tackles in the offseason.
Aguilar is a bit of a gunslinger, so there's definitely some high variance to his game, which is ideal for a moneyline pup. Plus, he's been red hot of late with 21 touchdowns to just four interceptions since Week 7.
His worst games from a mistake perspective came against Old Dominion and Southern Miss, which both utilized a high volume of man coverage. Well, Aguilar shouldn't have to worry too much about that on Saturday against a Troy defense that has played zone on 73% 0f snaps in 2023.
I expect Appalachian State, which ranks 27th in creating explosives, to hit on a ton of big plays against an aggressive Troy defense that ranks 68th in preventing explosiveness.
On the other side of the ball, the Mountaineer defense has improved significantly over the second half of the season, but they still struggle against the run. Fortunately for them, Troy doesn't possess an elite rushing attack.
Kimani Vidal is a very solid back, but Troy's offensive line doesn't get a great push up front, ranking 103rd in how often an attempt is met at the line of scrimmage. Quarterback Gunnar Watson doesn't add anything with his legs either.
There's a clear path for the confident Mountaineers to pull off this small upset on the road. They can create Havoc and negative plays on defense while hitting explosives on offense.
It's also worth noting that home-field advantage has historically not meant a whole lot in the Sun Belt, and Appalachian State certainly won't be afraid of the stage or environment after winning at James Madison. It also should have won at Wyoming and took North Carolina to overtime in Chapel Hill.
Pick: Appalachian State ML +180
Bet App State vs. Troy at bet365 with our bet365 bonus code.
Stuckey: Louisville +110
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
Let's take a look at the Florida State schedule and identify the most complete team the Seminoles have faced this season.
LSU? No. The Tigers have no defense.
Clemson? Absolutely not with that inept offense — even though the Tigers should have won that game in one of their best offensive performances of the season.
So, who else remains? We can eliminate Southern Miss, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Pitt and North Alabama.
That leaves three teams:
- Florida, which has a horrendous defense and played with a backup quarterback
- Duke, which also saw quarterback Riley Leonard go down with an injury during the game
- Miami, which also played with its backup quarterback
There's no real clear-cut answer.
My point is Louisville will clearly be the most complete team the inconsistent Noles have faced all season — and they'll have to do it with a backup quarterback since Jordan Travis was lost for the season with an injury.
I currently have the drop-off to Tate Rodemaker at a whopping 10 points after what I saw last week against a porous Florida defense. The Seminoles mustered only 223 yards in that game, which shouldn't inspire much confidence this week against a better defense in Louisville.
The path to success against the Cardinals defense is hitting explosive plays, which Florida State has excelled at all season. However, that was with Travis.
Florida's defense actually ranks as one of the worst in the country in allowing explosive plays, and FSU still couldn't get anything going last week.
There's definitely still a lot of uncertainty with Rodemaker (and maybe even the third-string with rumors that Rodemaker might not even be healthy enough to play), but that's ideal for a moneyline dog.
The Florida State rush offense also hasn't been very efficient, which spells trouble against a Louisville defense that ranks in the top 25 in FBS in Rush Success Rate.
Whoever is under center for the Seminoles will have to make plays through the air, which I'll happily bet against.
Pick: Louisville ML +110
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