Week 6 of the college football season is upon us, and that means it's time to bet some underdogs.
For the seventh straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate. Welcome to our Week 6 moneyline underdog picks.
In Week 5, UAB failed to show up against Navy, while Auburn choked away a lead with a late pick-six to Oklahoma in excruciating fashion.
Well, there's no reason to dwell on an 0-2 week. It's time to turn our attention to Week 6.
This week, I see value on an ACC 'dog in an in-state rivalry, while Collin heads down to the Sunshine State for an SEC/Big 12 battle.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out at over 4-1.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Week 6.
- 2018-23: 72-114, +12.65 units
- 2024-25: 4-6, +0.48 units
College Football Moneyline Underdogs for Week 6
Stuckey: Wake Forest ML +160 vs. NC State
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
I don't know how many more times NC State has to prove it's not a good football team.
Yes, the Wolfpack beat Northern Illinois by seven at home last week, but the Wolfpack amassed only 176 total yards of offense. They were outgained by over 100 total yards but still pulled out a victory due to a +4 turnover margin.
For reference, Buffalo's inept offense had a better output on the road the week prior against the Huskies.
Even in a pair of earlier home games against Louisiana Tech and Western Carolina, NC State trailed going into the fourth quarter. That same Louisiana Tech team just lost at FIU (which lost to Monmouth the week prior), lost to Tulsa at home, and barely beat Nicholls State in its home opener.
And it's not like WCU has been an FCS juggernaut this season with only one win by seven over Elon. Throw in complete blowout losses against Clemson and Tennessee, and there aren't really any promising data points for the Pack.
While Wake Forest certainly hasn't been lighting the world on fire, the Demon Deacons have been extremely unlucky in a pair of losses by a combined four points.
Against Louisiana, they missed a potential game-tying kick in the final seconds, which came a week after blowing a 13-point fourth-quarter lead to Virginia in a game they outgained the Hoos by over 100 yards (544-430).
I had this spot circled, but the spread currently sits in a dead range, so I'm going to wait for now since I do want to get some more injury intel on two of Wake's best offensive players: running back Demond Claiborne and wide receiver Donovan Greene, who has been dealing with a lingering leg injury that has limited his snap count the past two weeks.
When healthy, Greene is as dynamic as any receiver in the ACC, as he showed against Virginia earlier this season with an 11 catch, 166-yard performance.
Meanwhile, Claiborne left last week's game in a cart with what was initially reported as a dislocated knee but somehow remarkably returned in the second half and even ran for a long touchdown before leaving the game again with knee swelling.
I'd argue Wake Forest will have the most trustworthy unit on the field with its offense, which has actually been pretty productive under transfer quarterback Hank Bachmeier. He seems extremely comfortable running the slow-developing mesh point RPO scheme, and there's ample skill-position talent to work with at full strength.
Meanwhile, NC State quarterback CJ Bailey just doesn't seem fully ready to take off at this level after playing in high school last year with one of the most dominant wide receiver rooms (including Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith) you'll ever find at that level.
Lastly, I do have my concerns about NC State's potential massive special teams advantage, but I just don't think much separates these two clubs at the moment.
I think you get a max effort from Wake with its season on the brink after an unlucky 1-3 start. Historically, Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson gets the most out of his team in these spots, going 27-16 ATS (62.8%) as a road underdog of more than a field goal.
Collin Wilson: Florida ML +120 vs. UCF
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 62 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 62 -110o / -110u | +120 |
I'm going to back the Gators here.
There are a lot of things in the numbers that tell me Florida is going to at least have an easier time than what the point spread suggests.
While UCF is boat-racing teams down the field, it's struggling mightily in scoring position. KJ Jefferson is throwing way too many fades to the end zone.
UCF has made 37 trips into scoring position this year, but it averages 3.2 points per trip. Field goals are not going to beat a lot of teams, and that was the case against Colorado last week.
However, the bigger issue is a secondary that ranks 124th in Defensive Passing Success Rate and 130th in allowing explosives through the air.
Meanwhile, Florida will opt to go with a hybrid approach under center with some DJ Lagway and some Graham Mertz.
Mertz has been highly accurate. He has a low average depth of target, but he went 19-of-21 passing against Mississippi State with three touchdowns and an average depth of target of five yards.
Essentially, if head coach Billy Napier wants to simply matriculate the ball down the field, he can turn to Mertz. Then, if he wants the home-run hitter, Lagway is right there.
Lagway has yet to produce a turnover-worthy play in 53 passing attempts. He threw two interceptions against Texas A&M, but those were both considered to be the receivers' fault.
Whichever quarterback is on the field will be protected with this offensive line ranking fifth in pass blocking. There's not going to be any pressure coming in from the UCF defensive line.
If this game turns into a shootout and we want to get tempo in here, Florida is one of the best scoring teams in the nation. It ranks 10th in Offensive Finishing Drives, finding ways to cash in when it gets into scoring opportunities.
And in this case, I'm going to back the team that's better at putting points on the board beyond the 40. Give me the Gators all the way here.
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