It’s finally noon on another Saturday in the fall, meaning there are 15 hours of college football to dive into.
Our staff has uncovered value on three teams against the spread in the early window, picking sides for Oklahoma vs. Kansas, Indiana vs. Penn State and UConn vs. Boston College.
Read on for our staff’s four favorite college football best bets for Saturday, Oct. 28’s noon slate.
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Saturday Noon College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's noon slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Oklahoma vs. Kansas
Last week in this column, we successfully faded Oklahoma as a double-digit home favorite.
In that game, the Sooners barely survived a UCF team that has yet to win a Big 12 contest and was a 19-point underdog.
Now OU heads on the road to Lawrence to face a talented Kansas team that has had two weeks to prepare for this one.
Yes, we’re going back to the well and fading OU once again.
The Sooners’ defense has been good at creating negative plays and Havoc in the backfield, but it has also shown time and time again that it can be had down the field with explosive plays.
Lance Leipold is one of the best offensive minds in the country, so look for him to use tons of pre-snap motion to dial up some big plays for the Jayhawks.
Kansas is certainly not elite on the defensive side of the ball, but Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners’ offense have had spells where they look lifeless.
I trust the Jayhawks to be able to get enough stops to hang around in this game, and I have plenty of confidence in KU to put up its fair share of points, regardless of if it’s Jason Bean or Jalon Daniels getting the start.
Give me the Jayhawks to hang inside this inflated number, and I will also endorse a sprinkle on the moneyline as I believe KU can win this game outright.
Rock Chalk.
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Oklahoma vs. Kansas
By CJ Vogel
On paper, this game should be very fun.
However, it doesn’t look like Mother Nature will be providing ideal weather conditions on Saturday to fully enjoy the meeting between these two teams.
Right now, the forecast is predicting 45º and rain, great for, say, a team that runs some triple option.
Jason Bean will be starting for Kansas once again this weekend for the injured Jalon Daniels. Kansas is averaging 33.8 points per game in conference play — the exact same number as Oklahoma.
The Jayhawks are tied for first in yards per play in conference play and rank third in the Big 12 in third-down conversions. With or without Daniels, they have proven to be able to move the football.
Oklahoma has not been great in conference play, and this game ultimately could end up being one where the Jayhawks pull off an upset if things fall into place for them.
The Sooners have conference wins of just three, four, and 14 points this season.
For whatever reason, the Sooners have played down to opposition, with the exception of a bad Iowa State team in which the Sooners’ defense and special teams found the end zone twice.
In reality, a 10-point win feels unlikely with the Jayhawks right on the verge of the AP Top 25 and the weather playing into what should be a sloppy game all around.
I don’t expect a lot of passing success from Dillon Gabriel, who already is inconsistent in passing the ball in pristine conditions to start with.
If this line gets to 10, a big-time play is coming out.
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Indiana vs. Penn State
We know exactly why James Franklin and the Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State last week.
I’m not sure if Stuckey’s facetiousness is all that far off from reality.
Franklin is now 3-16 SU against top-10 teams as head coach of the Lions. He’s 1-13 against top-five teams. He’s 2-12 on the road against ranked teams.
Franklin is 10-12-1 ATS as an underdog.
But the Nittany Lions continue to crush Cupcake State every other week.
Franklin is 60-37-4 ATS as a favorite in his career, covering 62% of the time by an average margin of 4.6 points and generating a 20.2% ROI. He’s 7-3 ATS when laying over 30.
Meanwhile, Indiana is a corpse. The Hoosiers are quickly becoming the Power Five version of Cupcake State.
I thought they'd get up last week and cover six against a one-dimensional Rutgers squad. Instead, they let Rutgers rush for over 275 yards with a 53% Success Rate.
The Knights threw for only 39 yards and won by 17. Indiana knew Rutgers was rushing the ball every play, and the Hoosiers still couldn’t stop them.
The Hoosiers have lost four of their past five games and have failed to cover in four straight.
The Hoosiers now rank 98th in EPA per Play and 105th in EPA per Play allowed. They’re 108th in Success Rate and 125th in Success Rate allowed. They’re averaging 3.4 yards per rush and 5.7 yards per pass, sub-115 marks nationally.
Penn State should be in bounce-back mode here following a disgusting loss. The Nittany Lions need a crushing victory to stay in the top-10 conversation.
We know they can do that, given they’re 6-0 ATS when laying points this season.
The Nittany Lions covered a 42-point spread against UMass. They covered a 27-point spread against Northwestern. They covered 21 against West Virginia. The latter two games took some late-game miracles, but that’s what Franklin does, as he keeps his foot on the gas late in blowouts.
Expect the same here and wager accordingly.
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UConn vs. Boston College
It’s white flag season for the UConn Huskies. After a promising debut in Storrs, Jim Mora has lost his touch this season. Connecticut wanted to hang its hat on running the football and playing sound defense. It’s failed in both departments.
The Huskies’ ground game ranks 110th in Success Rate and 84th in yards per carry. And given the shambles that their QB room is currently in, having a serviceable running game would have been a major benefit.
Then there’s the Huskies’ defense, which ranks a ghastly 113th in Success Rate. The unit simply doesn’t generate negative plays and gives up explosives on the ground with regularity (89th).
Against true dual-threat quarterbacks, they’re 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS, dropping games to Georgia State, Duke and USF. And now they draw BC’s Thomas Castellanos and the nation’s most explosive running game.
Boston College has been super feisty with Castellanos calling the shots. The Eagles nearly upset Florida State at home and have won three straight games, including last week’s dominant performance at Georgia Tech.
Castellanos threw for 255 yards, ran for 128 yards and scored four total TDs against the Yellow Jackets. He’s going to cook this UConn defense.
And when UConn is playing from behind, you won’t have to worry about a backdoor cover. Ta’Quan Roberson put up a 29.8 QBR last week and that wasn’t his low-point on the season. He also has games with QBRs of 11.5 and 8.7.
The only reason that this number is below three scores is because Jeff Hafley hasn’t been a good bet at home as BC’s head coach. As a home favorite, the Eagles are 4-7 ATS under Hafley.
But against a rudderless UConn team, BC-backers’ luck is about to change at the window.
