Ah, yes. Another college football Saturday is upon us.
We have an absolutely loaded slate in Week 11, and it all starts with our noon kickoffs.
Our college football writers came through with four best bets for Saturday's noon kickoff window, including picks for No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 10 Penn State, No. 8 Alabama vs. Kentucky and Texas Tech vs. No. 16 Kansas.
So, let's dive into the analysis and kick off this Week 11 college football Saturday on a high note.
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Saturday Noon College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's noon slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Michigan vs. Penn State
Penn State has a stacked roster.
The pass defense is arguably the best in the nation, and the defensive line should get Chop Robinson and Amin Vanover back from injury this week.
The Kaytron Allen-Nicholas Singleton running back duo is solid, and the offensive line ahead of them ranks top-30 in Line Yards.
The key was getting James Franklin, Mike Yurcich and Drew Allar to open the playbook and start attacking downfield. They didn’t do that against Ohio State — even as the defense held up its end of the bargain — and it sunk the Nittany Lions.
It seems like they’ve learned their lesson.
Allar posted his highest single-game aDOT of the year against Indiana in Week 9 (10.9). Then, he shredded Maryland for 240 yards and four scores at 7.1 YPA in Week 10, tacking on four big-time throws for good measure.
Explosive Kent State transfer wide receiver Dante Cephus is finally getting involved, pulling in six receptions for 53 yards and two scores last week.
Getting Allar to push the ball downfield was the last piece of the puzzle. An explosive Penn State team can battle anyone in the nation, including Michigan.
PSU’s downfield passing attack is one part of this handicap; the other is Michigan’s schedule.
The Wolverines have played nobody through nine weeks. While their numbers are exceptional, it’s hard to conclude anything about the team, considering their best win was probably at home against Rutgers or on the road against Minnesota.
Now, their first real test is coming on the road in a hostile environment.
While J.J. McCarthy and Co. are playing exceptional football, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them struggle here. Playing an actually good football team could be a jolt to the system, similar to the one we saw Penn State deal with against Ohio State.
I’ll take the points with the home ‘dog here. It’s time for the Nittany Lions to wake up and take advantage of their talent.
Pick: Penn State +4.5
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Texas Tech vs. Kansas
By Stuckey
I have a ton of respect for this Kansas coaching staff, which is one of the best in college football.
However, after back-to-back upset wins, I believe we've reached a bit of inflation in the market with the Jayhawks, who I don't think should be favored by more than a field goal, as the defense still has major question marks across the board.
However, while I believe the market has reached semi-inflation on Kansas, this is more of a buy on an undervalued Texas Tech team that's hitting its stride after some brutal luck over the first nine games of 2023.
Let's take a closer look at its season to date.
The Red Raiders started out 3-3 with a trio of one-possession losses and blowout wins.
They easily could have started out 6-0 if not for some tough end-game luck against Oregon, a double-overtime loss at Wyoming and quarterback injuries at West Virginia (and a 2-0 turnover disadvantage).
Sitting at 3-3, Tech then lost at Kansas State after having to turn to third-string quarterback Jake Strong in a game it outgained the Wildcats, 480-435, but couldn't overcome going to Strong or a 3-0 turnover deficit.
Strong then got the start at BYU in another loss where the Red Raiders dominated the box score (389-277 in total yards) but were done in by a -5 turnover margin (5-0) with their third-string signal-caller throwing three picks.
I could go on and on, but this Texas Tech team could easily be 6-2 or even 7-1 with better turnover luck and quarterback health.
With Behren Morton returning last week and looking fully healthy in a win over TCU, I'm fully confident this Red Raider offense can pick apart the Kansas defense here.
Meanwhile, the Texas Tech run defense has been dominant all season, ranking top-10 in EPA, which is critical against a dynamic Kansas offense built on the foundation of getting the ground game going.
This is also an important game for the 4-4 Red Raiders, who probably need to win this one for bowl eligibility purposes.
Pick: Texas Tech +3.5
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Alabama vs. Kentucky
Kentucky +11
Alabama has been a covering machine in SEC play ever since the nonconference loss to Texas. I think that run ends Saturday afternoon in Lexington.
This is, for all intents and purposes, Kentucky’s Super Bowl.
Alabama does not come to town often, and the Wildcats should have the formula to keep this one within single digits.
Devin Leary continues to look better in recent weeks after getting back to full health. His ability to take some chances down the field will be critical against an Alabama defense that’s strong against the run.
While Jalen Milroe has been fantastic throwing the ball down the field, the Alabama offense still goes on droughts at various points within games.
Mark Stoops’ defense will force the Tide to be a little bit more methodical than what they were able to do against LSU.
I don’t know if the Cats have enough firepower in the tank to pull off the upset, but they can absolutely do enough to hang around in this one.
Give me BBN with the points.
Pick: Kentucky +11
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Alabama -10.5
By Doug Ziefel
This Alabama team is riding high into Lexington after a massive and potentially season-saving victory against LSU. The Crimson Tide found their footing offensively, as they put up 507 total yards.
Their offensive success should carry over into this matchup against the Kentucky Wildcats.
The man to keep your eyes on will be quarterback Jalen Milroe.
We know Milroe can be deadly on the ground with his legs, but an overlooked part of his game is his ability to throw the deep ball. Heading into last week's matchup, Milroe held a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio with a 131.8 passer rating on throws of 20 yards or more.
Milroe gets to face a Wildcats' secondary that is 124th in opponent completion percentage allowed.
On the other side of the ball, Kentucky has been very efficient rushing the ball, but stopping the ground game has been the strength of the Crimson Tide defense.
Alabama ranks 25th in yards per rush allowed, and you can bet it will be filling gaps after allowing 206 yards on the ground last week against LSU.
In the end, Alabama's offense could look explosive here, and it has the potential to pull away in a hurry if it can string together stops.
Pick: Alabama -10.5 (Play to -13.5)
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