Oklahoma Sooners vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
There's no other word to describe what the scene will be in Stillwater on Saturday other than "Bedlam."
One of the longest rivalries in college football is coming to an end with Oklahoma’s departure for the SEC in 2024.
The Sooners were happy to pair up with the Texas Longhorns for greener pastures in the pocketbook, ending a rivalry with the Cowboys after 120 years. Oklahoma leads the series in football, 91-19-7, a reason it's has shown no remorse in its bolt from the Big 12.
The feelings are not mutual for Oklahoma State, as the entire Big 12 scrambled for answers before adding a laundry list of new teams to the conference.
OSU head coach Mike Gundy emphatically stated Oklahoma State will be fine in the new-look Big 12, and all questions about the breakup should be directed at Oklahoma.
The stakes are high, as the loser takes a step back in their attempt to make the Big 12 Championship game.
The Cowboys' players, coaches and fans are sure to have Boone Pickens Stadium hotter than a livestock branding iron come Saturday afternoon.
Oklahoma Sooners
In Week 9, Oklahoma suffered an outright loss against Kansas for the first time in nearly two decades.
The Jayhawks averaged 6.5 yards in standard downs, having just 17-of-41 rushing attempts stuffed at the line of scrimmage.
Kansas recorded four rushing touchdowns and five explosive runs, numbers that piled on after the loss of Sooners linebacker Danny Stutsman to injury.
Brent Venables says on his coaches show that cornerback Gentry Williams practiced today.
As for Danny Stutsman and Tawee Walker… "Fingers crossed." #Sooners
— George Stoia III (@GeorgeStoia) October 31, 2023
Stutsman is the key cog in this defense, leading the team with 47 tackles while creating 12 pressures from the middle linebacker position.
The Sooners have severe issues with tackling and rank 82nd in broken tackles allowed. Stutsman has one of the best missed tackle percentages on the team at 8.5%, but a large number of starters — including linebacker Jaren Kanak and safety Billy Bowman Jr. — have missed more than 25% of tackle opportunities.
Stutsman's health is paramount to the handicap against the Oklahoma State offense.
The Sooners continue to struggle offensively in creating explosives. While their Success Rate ranks top-20 in standard and passing downs, only one rushing attempt has gone for 40 yards or more on the season.
Tawee Walker is the only option in the backfield who averages more than three yards after contact, making him an important watch on the injury report.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel could not do enough in the passing game to beat Kansas. The fifth-year senior has nearly as many turnover-worthy plays as big-time throws, failing to log a passing touchdown against the Jayhawks.
While Oklahoma has generated a Success Rate of 30th in passing, a drop to 85th in explosives has hampered the Sooners in logging available yards.
The issues may be on the shoulders of Gabriel, who's averaging the lowest depth of target and drop rate marks of his career.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Gundy has not posted a losing season as the coach of Oklahoma State since his inaugural season in 2005. The preseason win total closed at 6.5, suggesting that any misstep by the Pokes could keep the team home from the postseason for the first time since the Bush administration.
Early losses to South Alabama and Iowa State suggested the oddsmakers were correct in the win total — that is, until the emergence of sophomore running back Ollie Gordon II.
Ollie Gordon’s stats in Oklahoma State’s last THREE games:
— 858 yards (721 rushing, 137 receiving)
— Eight touchdowns
— 8.7 yards per carry
— 24 runs or catches of 10+ yards
— 10 runs or catches of 25+ yards
— Six runs or catches of 40+ yards— Matt Zenitz (@mzenitz) October 29, 2023
The handicap on Oklahoma State begins and ends with Gordon, who's responsible for more than 37% of the total offense for the Pokes. The second-year player averages 4.7 yards after contact, ranking as a top-10 running back nationally with 43 missed tackles created.
The Cowboys' run concepts are split between gap and zone concepts, with Gordon having the highest expected points in outside zone attempts. Off-tackle rushing attempts by Gordon have been the bread and butter of this offensive line.
The resurrection of quarterback Alan Bowman's career has been remarkable as well. After suffering injuries and transferring from both Texas Tech and Michigan, the sixth-year senior has his best big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate of his career since his freshman season in 2018.
All of the talk in the preseason for the Pokes defense centered around new coordinator Bryan Nardo.
The 37-year-old had previous experience at Gannon University and Youngstown State, making one of the biggest coaching ladder moves in recent FBS history.
Gundy praised Nardo's system, as the Cowboys remain a 3-3-5 defense with quarters coverage.
Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Oklahoma State match up statistically:
Oklahoma Offense vs Oklahoma State Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 17 | 51 | |
| Line Yards | 65 | 62 |  |
| Pass Success | 3 | 96 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 94 | |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 103 | |
| Quality Drives | 11 | 44 | |
Oklahoma State Offense vs Oklahoma Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 42 | 22 | |
| Line Yards | 62 | 8 | |
| Pass Success | 78 | 30 | |
| Havoc | 17 | 19 | |
| Finishing Drives | 62 | 14 | |
| Quality Drives | 28 | 33 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 50 | 60 |
| PFF Coverage | 41 | 57 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 103 | 54 |
| Middle 8 | 30 | 64 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.5 (13) | 24.5 (21) |
| Rush Rate | 56.2% (37) | 45.9% (109) |
Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Bedlam comes down to a single handicap when Oklahoma State has the ball: Can the Sooners stop Gordon?
Oklahoma ranks top-25 in Success Rate and Line Yards against the rush and comes in at second nationally in Stuff Rate. The Sooners' defensive front has locked down attempts from opponents running inside zone, man, counter and power run concepts.
Where Oklahoma falls back in the pack in terms of Success Rate and EPA is against outside zone attempts.
Oklahoma State will throw every run concept in the book at OU, but its highest Success Rate and EPA marks come from running outside zone.
If Stutsman is unable to go, Kanak must play his best game of the year to keep Gordon's runs from getting to the second level.
Oklahoma State ranks third nationally in standard downs explosives, a stark contrast to Oklahoma's defensive rank of 105th in allowing explosives in standard downs.
The good news for Gabriel is the familiarity with quarters coverage — the highest usage of any secondary package for the Pokes. Without a running game, Oklahoma will depend on Gabriel's connections to Nic Anderson and Drake Stoops for scoring.
Action Network projects Oklahoma as a 6.5-point favorite with both teams at full health. That number will come down with any negative news on Stutsman, a key element of the Sooners defense who does not miss tackles.
Without Stutsman roaming the tackle box, Gordon will be free to peel off the Cowboys' offensive tackles for big gains.
Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables' defense must have a captain at middle linebacker to call out plays and line up the rest of the defense.
Without Stutsman, this is a play on Oklahoma State to end the Bedlam Series with a cover — and maybe even a victory.
