Thursday College Football Odds & Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | NCAAF Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Thursday nights are for football — and for college football picks in Week 3.
The college football world will be treated to two games on Thursday night: Texas State vs. Arizona State and South Alabama vs. Northwestern State.
Action Network college football writers Cody Goggin and Joshua Nunn came through with a pick for both games to round out Thursday's action on the gridiron.
Check out updated college football odds and picks for NCAAF Week 3 on Thursday, Sept. 12 below.
Arizona State vs. Texas State Odds, Pick
| Arizona St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Texas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- Texas State vs Arizona State spread: Texas State -1.5
- Texas State vs Arizona State over/under: 59.5 total points
By Cody Goggin
The Arizona State Sun Devils will travel to San Marcos, Texas, to take on the Texas State Bobcats on Thursday night. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Arizona State is a 2-point favorite in a game with an over/under of 60 points (-108 / -112). Texas State has been on the rise as a Group of Five program and will be vying for a potential program-changing upset.
Let’s dive into my Arizona State vs. Texas State prediction and best bet for Thursday night’s matchup.
Arizona State Sun Devils Preview
Arizona State has turned some heads with its early-season performance.
The Sun Devils came into this year with a season win total of 4.5 and are now 2-0.
It’s not just the fact that they won, but the matter in which they did so. They beat Wyoming by 41 points and then led Mississippi State by multiple scores for most of the game.
Arizona State ranks 56th in Offensive EPA per Play and 69th in Success Rate.
The Sun Devils have had a rush-heavy attack, running the ball 52 times per game, the fifth-most rushes in the country. On these runs, they rank 25th in EPA per Play and 52nd in Success Rate.
Last weekend, Cam Skattebo carried the ball 33 times for 262 yards against Mississippi State.
After playing well against Wyoming, new starting quarterback Sam Leavitt struggled mightily against Mississippi State. He completed 10-of-20 pass attempts for just 65 yards. Despite not throwing an interception and being sacked only once against the Bulldogs, Leavitt averaged -0.53 EPA per dropback.
ASU’s defense returned just four starters and looked fantastic against Wyoming. Week 2 provided some additional context for what to expect going forward. It turns out Wyoming might not have a good offense and that we should be less impressed by the Week 1 performance.
Mississippi State posted an 86th-percentile Success Rate and 63rd-percentile EPA per Play despite an early-game fumble recovery for a touchdown. ASU's defense will likely look more like it did in Week 2 than in Week 1 moving forward.
Texas State Bobcats Preview
Texas State head coach GJ Kinne made headlines last season with his high-powered offense. This season, with a new quarterback in James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud and nine returning starters, the Bobcats are looking deadly once again.
The Bobs scored 34 points on Lamar and 49 against UTSA last weekend. In Week 2, McCloud completed 18-of-27 passes for 309 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while Lincoln Pare rushed 11 times for 109 yards and two touchdowns.
Last year, this offense ranked 15th in Success Rate and 19th in Finishing Drives, as well as 14th in Passing Success Rate and 50th in Passing PPA with TJ Finley at quarterback.
Despite their reputation, they ran the ball 52% of the time and ranked 23rd in Rushing Success Rate, 20th in Rushing PPA and 15th in rushing explosiveness.
The defense was the issue last season. The Bobs' stop unit finished 54th in Success Rate but 127th in explosiveness allowed. Their passing defense ranked 88th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 80th in Passing PPA Allowed and 111th in passing explosiveness allowed.
They return nine starters on the defense, which showed signs of improvement against UTSA last week by allowing just 10 points.
Arizona State vs Texas State Pick, Best Bet
It’s not often a power conference team plays a true road game against a G5 opponent, but that’s what we have here. Arizona State will be playing in a hostile environment as the home underdog looks to pull the upset.
Of all the units in this game, I trust Kinne’s offense the most. Texas State’s offense will be able to hang with Arizona State, and I don’t trust the Sun Devils enough to keep up.
I like taking the Bobcats as slight favorites on Thursday night to score the outright win over Arizona State and cover. In turn, the Bobcats will start to gain momentum toward being the G5 representative in the College Football Playoff.
Pick: Texas State to Cover the Spread | Bet to -2.5
| |
Northwestern State vs. South Alabama Odds, Pick
| NW State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+37.5 -112 | 60 -110o / -110u | |
| S. Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-37.5 -108 | 60 -110o / -110u | |
- Northwestern State vs. South Alabama spread: S. Alabama -37.5
- Northwestern State vs. South Alabama over/under: 60 total points
By Joshua Nunn
The Northwestern State Demons (0-2) take on the South Alabama Jaguars (0-2) at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 12 on ESPN+.
South Alabama enters Thursday's matchup as a -35.5 favorite, while the over/under sits at 58.5. But is Northwestern State getting enough respect in this spot?
Let's dive into my Northwestern State vs. South Alabama prediction for Thursday, Sept. 12.
Northwestern State Demons Preview
Northwestern State comes into this matchup after suffering a close 37-31 home loss to Prairie View A&M. The Demons had first-and-goal at the 1-yard line in the final seconds and couldn’t punch it in for the game-winning score.
Northwestern State was predicted to finish last in the Southland Conference this season. Through two games to this point, it has actually improved quite a bit offensively compared to expectations.
Running back Kennieth Lacy and wide receiver Myles Kitt-Denton have been bright spots for the Demons, as they each have a pair of touchdowns to their name.
They have both been big-play threats as well, with Lacy averaging 9.2 yards per carry and Kitt-Denton racking up 28.8 yards per reception.
The defense remains a work in progress, but this unit has been opportunistic so far. The Demons have forced four turnovers while committing just one.
South Alabama Jaguars Preview
South Alabama enters 0-2 both straight up and against the spread in two games it was favored in.
The Jaguars offense sputtered last week against Ohio in a 27-20 defeat. Electric dual-threat quarterback Gio Lopez was held out due to a toe injury, and his status for this contest Thursday night is uncertain.
Backup Bishop Davenport is also a dual-threat signal-caller, and he stepped in to complete 23-of-37 passes for 226 yards and a touchdown pass to electric wide receiver Jamaal Pritchett.
However, the second half saw long, clock-consuming drives by Ohio that kept South Alabama’s offense on the sideline. The Jaguars defense struggled to stop the Bobcats' rushing attack, as Ohio ran for 209 yards and averaged 5.8 yards per carry.
On the ground offensively, South Alabama hasn't found a way to run the ball consistently. On the season, the Jaguars have one rush of 20 yards or longer.
The lack of explosiveness and Havoc Allowed on the ground has caused South Alabama to rely far too heavily on the pass so far this season.
Northwestern State vs South Alabama Pick, Best Bet
There are quite a few factors at play in this matchup.
South Alabama travels three weeks in a row after this matchup and certainly needs a win here. The road journey starts with a trip to take on Appalachian State in conference play next Thursday in a game that's much more important for the trajectory of its season.
I would guess the Jaguars are working in some App State prep for next week sprinkled in with their Northwestern State preparation this week.
The status of Lopez at quarterback is also significant. The Jags are playing his status close to the vest, as head coach Major Applewhite revealed that he's practicing and the team hopes to have him back but might have to wait another week. Toe injuries are notorious for lingering, and I'd expect Lopez's mobility to be impacted if he does suit up.
Furthermore, there's impending hurricane-related weather scheduled to hit Mobile, Alabama, midweek, which will bring heavy rainfall, high-speed winds, tornado threats and coastal flooding into the picture. Local reports say this weather episode will ramp up on Thursday.
While light rain alone is not enough to affect betting outcomes significantly, high winds and heavy rain can. This severe weather could impact coaching decisions and offensive game plans.
My prediction is that South Alabama will do enough to win comfortably, but I'm not sold on the Jaguars extending the margin past the current line.
There are major questions surrounding the offensive line that need to be worked out, and the running game has left a lot to be desired.
If the ground game can't improve, South Alabama will again be forced to rely on its aerial attack. Given the current weather forecast and a backup quarterback potentially taking snaps, that would put the Jaguars in a tough spot.
There's a drop-off from Lopez to Davenport at quarterback, and whether Lopez is healthy or not, I would expect Davenport to get some work in the second half either way.
Meanwhile, Northwestern State has shown enough on offense to keep this final score somewhat respectable.
With bad weather, quarterback injuries and a team potentially looking ahead to conference play, Northwestern State +35.5 is worth a small play Thursday night.
Pick: Northwestern State +35.5
