Georgia State vs. Louisiana Odds
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 62.5 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 62.5 -115o / -105u | -165 |
We head down to Lafayette, Louisiana, where the Georgia State Panthers will face the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in what should be a fun Sun Belt matchup.
Georgia State cruised to a nice home victory last week against Marshall, while the Ragin' Cajuns are coming off a bye. This is a pretty fascinating game to handicap because we can take a few different betting approaches.
The market has already taken shape on a couple of sides in this game, so let's waste no further time and break down this matchup.
Georgia State Panthers
The Panthers' offense was able to utilize its explosive rushing attack against Marshall last week. The Panthers are now 5-1 on the year and have another tasty matchup on the offensive side of the ball.
The Panthers should be able to exploit ULL's rush defense, which ranks 124th in Rushing Success Rate. If the run game isn't clicking, the Panthers are 45th in Passing Success Rate and ULL's secondary isn't much better.
Quarterback Darren Grainger should have plenty of opportunities to use his legs, and I also expect running back Marcus Carroll to continue to dominate. There's a lot to like for the Panthers on the offensive side of the ball.
As for the defense, I'm a bit concerned about the secondary.
ULL's offense has solid underlying metrics and Georgia State's secondary could easily get exploited. As a result, it'll be crucial for this defensive front to step up and cause some Havoc.
I'm a tad worried about the Panthers' ability to contain ULL's passing attack, so this may be a game they may need to win in a shootout.
This has the makings of a nice game to live bet.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
The Ragin Cajuns' overall body of work isn't impressive, but we do need to give some flowers to the offense. Head coach Michael Desormeaux has established the identity of this football team, and it's obvious the offense leads the way.
Quarterback Zeon Chriss has utilized his dual-threat skills effectively and has racked up over 1,100 total yards rushing and passing. He's a huge reason why ULL's offense is top 30 in both Rushing and Passing Success Rates.
This offense isn't the best at preventing Havoc, but against a Panthers defense that struggles to create any, I don't have any concerns. ULL should be able to take advantage of the Panthers' bottom-30 ranking in both PFF tackling and coverage.
Defensively, this is one of the worst teams in the nation in Rushing Success Rate (124th). This is looking like a disastrous matchup due to the Panthers' explosive rushing attack.
I don't have much faith in the Ragin' Cajuns to stop the run, so they will need to hope they force the Panthers into non-standard down situations.
I would suggest ULL could contain the Panthers by creating turnovers, but ULL is 101st in Havoc, so that seems like it might be asking too much from this defense.
Georgia State vs. Louisiana
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia State and Louisiana match up statistically:
Georgia State Offense vs. Louisiana Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 108 | 124 | |
| Line Yards | 88 | 117 | |
| Pass Success | 45 | 43 |  |
| Havoc | 60 | 101 | |
| Finishing Drives | 50 | 117 | |
| Quality Drives | 36 | 97 | |
Louisiana Offense vs. Georgia State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 14 | 22 | |
| Line Yards | 17 | 19 | |
| Pass Success | 30 | 101 | |
| Havoc | 85 | 93 | |
| Finishing Drives | 54 | 53 | |
| Quality Drives | 64 | 57 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 109 | 19 |
| PFF Coverage | 112 | 28 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 44 | 15 |
| Middle 8 | 123 | 13 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (39) | 26.8 (65) |
| Rush Rate | 58.9% (21) | 57.4% (31) |
Georgia State vs. Louisiana
Betting Pick & Prediction
ULL opening as a short favorite screams to me that it'll somehow win this game.
However, I'm terrified of backing the Ragin' Cajuns due to their inability to contain the run against the rush-heavy Panthers.
Instead, I feel much more comfortable taking the over.
I realize the Panthers' defense can be stout at times, but I love what the Cajuns can do on the offensive side of the ball.
This is a great spot for both offenses to have some success, and even if the Panthers are a bit sleepy, I think they'll awaken by the 2nd quarter. Let's cash this over in what should be an action-packed Sun Belt matchup.
