Boston College vs Army Odds
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -140 |
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We're heading to West Point, New York, where the Army Black Knights will host the Boston College Eagles.
Army will look to rebound after its bye week, as it fell to Syracuse, 29-16, on September 23.
For the Eagles, they pulled off a comeback victory against Virginia, and they'll look to keep the momentum going in this one.
Both of these teams have had uninspiring results thus far, so this is a fascinating matchup to break down.
Let's waste no further time and uncover some betting value in Boston College vs. Army.
Boston College Eagles
As someone who believed the Eagles would be a much improved football team, I've been very disappointed in their season thus far. Narrowly escaping Virginia last week was a bit alarming, and you could argue they deserved to lose.
Virginia committed 11 penalties, whereas Boston College only committed five. Discipline has been a huge area of concern for the Eagles, so it was nice to see them on the other end of the flags fiasco.
Whenever you break down a service academy matchup, the first focus is always going to be the trench. Unfortunately, the Eagles haven't had much success stopping the run this season, but oddly enough, the Black Knights have struggled to run the ball themselves.
I realize the Black Knights are currently transitioning out of their prototypical triple-option offense, but they continue to run the ball at a 75% clip. It'll be telling right away if the Eagles will be able to contain this Army offense based on the battle of the trench.
The Eagles continue to get gashed through the air, which is not doing their defense any favors. They're also 132nd in Havoc created, which will make their lives even tougher in this spot.
I mentioned this would typically not play a factor in a service academy matchup, but Army is actually ranked inside the top 60 in Passing Success Rate. It throws the ball at about a 25% rate, but when it does, it's usually effective.
QB Thomas Castellanos didn't play his best last week, but I still love what he brings to the table for this offense. His dual-threat ability has been a game-changer, and he'll have to be much sharper if the Eagles want to come out with a victory.
I don't really put too much stock into the Eagles' offensive metrics, except for their top-40 rank in Havoc Allowed. They do a terrific job of protecting the ball and minimizing the risks they take on offense.
I think this Army secondary has shown flashes of being elite, but you can argue it has yet to be challenged. The one opponent that was able to move the ball through the air was Syracuse, and we all saw what happened in that matchup.
Castellanos will have to carry this offense with his arm if the Eagles want a chance of pulling off this road victory, and I think he has the chops to have a big day.
Army Black Knights
It's strange watching this Army offense transition out of the triple option, but you can't argue that it hasn't been able to move the ball through the air.
I mentioned Army still runs the ball the majority of the time, but that added wrinkle of a threat to pass will keep the Eagles on their toes all afternoon.
I like what I see from the Army metrics, especially with its impressive top-40 ranks in PFF coverage and tackling.
But let's hold our horses a bit.
Has Army really been challenged thus far this year? It played a decent Syracuse team and got completely dominated for most of the game, but who else has it played? The Black Knights faced Delaware State, UL Monroe (they lost by the way) and UTSA without Frank Harris.
This is a complete clown show of a schedule.
I'm not going to sit here and blab about how great I think this Eagles team is because they're certainly not as talented as I thought they were going to be. But Army could definitely be at a talent disadvantage in this matchup.
If Army's talent is legitimate, it'll be able to put points on the board every possession. There are no excuses as to why it can't put up its fair share of points against this dreadful Eagles defense.
Boston College vs Army
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boston College and Army match up statistically:
Boston College Offense vs. Army Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 87 | 62 | |
| Line Yards | 84 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 113 | 51 | |
| Havoc | 38 | 104 | |
| Finishing Drives | 59 | 13 | |
| Quality Drives | 80 | 48 | |
Army Offense vs. Boston College Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 83 | 100 | |
| Line Yards | 77 | 78 |  |
| Pass Success | 54 | 130 | |
| Havoc | 58 | 132 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 106 | |
| Quality Drives | 34 | 115 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 48 | 38 |
| PFF Coverage | 99 | 32 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 48 | 91 |
| Middle 8 | 133 | 11 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.2 (19) | 31.1 (129) |
| Rush Rate | 54.2% (44) | 75.6% (3) |
Boston College vs Army
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's an ugly pick, but I think Boston College will look much sharper than last week and cover this short spread. The market has already taken shape in this matchup, as it seems many bettors are fading the Eagles due to recency bias.
Nothing in the metrics tells me that the Eagles will get many stops against this Army offense, but I think if they turn this game into a shootout, I'll trust Castellanos all day.
Army will try to grind out this game, per usual, but a few early stops could set up this Eagles team for a big day.
I don't believe in this Army team at all, and despite coming off of a bye, I still think the Knights will be outclassed here.
Army's weak schedule sold me on the Eagles, and I think BC will establish some offensive success through the air.
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