Cal vs Utah Odds
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
The Cal Golden Bears (3-3) will travel to Rice-Eccles Stadium to take on the Utah Utes (4-1) on Saturday afternoon.
Cal has impressed many with its offense that has put up 32.8 points per game this year, but it be able to keep up this pace against Utah’s defense?
I think we need to look at the schedules for both teams thus far to get a true gauge of where these programs are at. After doing this analysis, I have a strong hunch on how this game will play out.
Read on for my Cal vs. Utah betting preview and pick for Saturday, Oct. 14.
California Golden Bears
Cal’s offense has been surprisingly good this year. Anchored by the running game, the Golden Bears rank 49th in Success Rate and 53rd in Finishing Drives.
Their strong running game ranks 11th in PPA and 26th in Success Rate this season. They've been one of the best teams on the ground in the entire nation, ranking third in PFF run grade with a mark of 90.3.
Through the air, Cal has not found the same success. It sits just 89th in Success Rate and 102nd in PPA when throwing the ball.
While these rushing numbers are impressive on their own, they don’t jump off the page quite as much when taking the context into account.
Among the five FBS opponents Cal has faced this year, Auburn has had the best defense at 32nd in overall Defensive Success Rate and 54th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. Cal mustered an Offensive Success Rate in the 11th percentile and 10 points against this Tigers team.
Its other opponents — Washington, Oregon State, Arizona State and North Texas — all rank outside of the top 80 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, and three of them don't even crack the top 100.
While Cal has been scoring at a high clip due to its running game, what it'll see against Utah will be a completely different story.
On the defensive side of the ball, Cal has struggled, ranking 109th in Success Rate Allowed and 130th in Defensive Finishing Drives. The Bears' passing defense has been especially atrocious, coming in at 123rd in Success Rate and 126th in PPA.
This has also been influenced heavily by their opponents; the Bears are a better unit than these numbers show. I believe their SP+ ranking of 66th is much more indicative of what they are this season.
Utah Utes
The absence of quarterback Cam Rising has certainly been felt for this Utah team. After winning back-to-back Pac-12 titles, the Utes have one conference loss already and can’t afford another if they want to get back to Las Vegas.
Without Rising, this Utah offense has struggled mightily. It's been up to the defense to pick up the slack, which that unit has done admirably.
Utah’s offense ranks 124th in Success Rate and 129th in Finishing Drives this season. Neither the passing game nor the running game has been successful, ranking 126th and 114th, respectively.
However, there may still be some hope for this unit.
The schedule the Utes have faced could be partly to blame for these struggles. In their five games this season, three of them have come against defenses that rank in the top 40, per SP+. While they were putrid in those games, they had strong showings against FCS Weber State and posted a 57th-percentile Success Rate against Baylor.
Cal’s defense is better than Weber State’s and likely Baylor’s, but it's not up to the level of those other three teams. For that reason, we may get some life from this Utes offense this weekend.
As mentioned, Utah's defense has been carrying the torch, ranking second in Success Rate Allowed, sixth in Havoc, 13th in Finishing Drives and 11th in SP+. All around, this has been one of the best defensive performances in the nation despite the fact that Utah has faced some strong offenses.
Cal vs Utah
Betting Pick & Prediction
Cal’s offense has been great this season, but I don’t see that continuing against this sturdy Utah defense. I believe the Utes will be able to shut the Golden Bears down all day and hold them to one of their lowest outputs of the season.
I’m not as confident in what will happen on the other side of the ball, but I think Utah will be able to grind this game out and put some points on the board against a fairly mediocre Cal defense.
I do like Utah to win and possibly cover this game, but 13.5 is a lot of points to lay with an offense that I’m not confident will score more than 20 points.
Instead, I prefer to take the under here at 45.5.
I believe Cal will barely be able to crack double digits, and Utah’s offense is a complete unknown. Both of these teams want to run the ball a ton, and the Utes rank 120th in seconds per play this season, so I think we see another vintage Utah game this weekend.
