Marshall vs Georgia State Odds
| Marshall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 53.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 53.5 -105o / -115u | -135 |
Let's head down to Hot-Lanta where the Georgia State Panthers will host the Marshall Thundering Herd. The Panthers are coming off of their bye week, so they'll now look to rebound after getting embarrassed by Troy, 28-7, their last time out.
As for Marshall, it lost a heartbreaker to NC State last week, 48-41. The box score was pretty even, so the final score could have gone either way.
There's a lot to like about the Herd's metrics on the defensive side of the ball, but I wouldn't be so sure that these are telling the full story of this matchup. Let's dive in deeper and see what the correct betting angle is.
Marshall Thundering Herd
Marshall quarterback Cam Fancher threw the ball 51 times in his team's loss to the Wolfpack — a game in which he found some success.
It's pretty clear that Marshall has established its offensive identity, but the question remains if it can remain consistent.
The offensive metrics for the Herd are pretty sore to the eyes, as they sit in the bottom 30 in Havoc Allowed, as well as Finishing Drives and Quality Drives. They have yet to establish any sort of push in the offensive trench, sitting in the bottom 20 in Line Yards and Rush Success Rate.
I really don't see that changing here, as the Panthers defense is excellent against the run and has a very prominent defensive trench. If the Herd offense ends up in third-and-long scenarios, this could be a long night for the offense.
Let's talk about the defense because some of these numbers are impressive. I was pretty stunned to see Marshall get shredded last week against NC State, but this all could be in part because of its weak strength of schedule.
Regardless, the Herd rank second in the nation in Defensive Passing Success Rate and also find themselves inside the top 35 in Defensive Rush Success Rate, Line Yards and Havoc.
The Panthers love to run the football, so this is the one area where I could see the Herd struggling big time. I would expect this defensive front to be aggressive early, which could cause a lot of mental mistakes from the Panthers offense.
Marshall ranks 118th in tackle grading, and its special teams are absolutely atrocious. Keep this in mind as the game progresses.
Georgia State Panthers
This was a much-needed bye week for head coach Shawn Elliott's team after Troy bullied the Panthers from the opening kickoff. I would expect his team to come out fiery in this home spot.
If the Panthers want to win this game, they're going to have to lean on their running attack, as well as their impressive defensive front. This is a unit that was pretty bad last season, so it's great to them improve.
The Panthers defense does a fantastic job of limiting Quality Drives, which is a glaring weakness for the Herd. This defense may get pushed around a bit, but I do expect a valiant effort that will limit a lot of scoring opportunities.
As for the offense, I think it's going to have to break through on the ground. This Marshall secondary is pretty elite, so the Panthers are going to have to get the ground game going early if they want to be successful in this matchup.
The Panthers enter this game ranked 113th in Rushing Success Rate and 107th in Line Yards, showing that the offensive line is getting attacked the majority of the time.
However, if quarterback Darren Grainger protects the football, I think the Panthers could finally establish some offensive rhythm. I still expect them to run the majority of the time, which will help them stay within the number.
Marshall vs Georgia State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Marshall and Georgia State match up statistically:
Marshall Offense vs. Georgia State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 125 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 130 | 15 | |
| Pass Success | 40 | 97 | |
| Havoc | 81 | 93 | |
| Finishing Drives | 100 | 48 | |
| Quality Drives | 117 | 55 | |
Georgia State Offense vs. Marshall Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 113 | 25 | |
| Line Yards | 107 | 34 | |
| Pass Success | 52 | 2 | |
| Havoc | 60 | 31 | |
| Finishing Drives | 35 | 17 | |
| Quality Drives | 48 | 50 |  |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 118 | 119 |
| PFF Coverage | 13 | 127 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 118 | 50 |
| Middle 8 | 52 | 130 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.0 (53) | 24.7 (25) |
| Rush Rate | 52.1% (72) | 59.2% (17) |
Marshall vs Georgia State
Betting Pick & Prediction
I love Georgia State in this spot. I think Marshall could be a little sleepy here considering all of the effort it put in just to lose a heartbreaker against NC State.
I know the Herd have a lot of defensive advantages, but I still think they're in trouble against this rushing attack. These defensive numbers could easily be skewed due to the easy strength of schedule — especially after the Wolfpack nearly put up 50 last week.
The Panthers defense should find plenty of success against this dead-in-the-water Marshall offense.
I like that the Panthers are at home coming off a bye here as well. The week off should have given them a few new opportunities to add to their playbook and shore things up after their loss to the Trojans.
Give me the Panthers in a great home spot.
