Old Dominion vs Southern Miss Odds
| Old Dominion Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 56.5 -115o / -1105u | +120 |
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | -145 |
In a battle of former Conference USA foes, Southern Miss hosts Old Dominion at The Rock Saturday night in Sun Belt Conference action.
The Golden Eagles are desperate for a victory after dropping their last four contests to enter the game at 1-4 on the year.
Meanwhile, the Monarchs were in a fight with Marshall last week before falling to 2-3 on the season after the loss.
I really don’t agree with the odds for this Old Dominion vs. Southern Miss contest, and I plan on taking advantage of a struggling team that sportsbooks haven’t adjusted enough for yet.
Old Dominion Monarchs
In his fourth season at Old Dominion, head coach Ricky Rahne has already matched the team’s win total from a year ago, and a win here would tie its 2022 record.
One of the keys to the early-season success has been the solid defensive metrics. On the year, ODU ranks in the top 50 in both Line Yards (26th) and Finishing Drives (49th).
However, it was the offense that put on a show at Marshall, specifically running back Kadarius Calloway. He racked up 236 yards and three scores on just 11 carries, breaking the school record for yards per carry with 21.5.
Calloway wasn’t the only one with long gains on the ground. In his debut, quarterback Jack Shields also found the end zone on a 66-yard touchdown run.
This Monarchs offense has been explosive so far this season, and it will need that to continue into conference play.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Coming into the year, there was plenty of momentum for the Southern Miss program under coach Will Hall after USM finished with a winning record in 2022 following a victory over Rice in the LendingTree Bowl.
Unfortunately for the Golden Eagles, the season is off to a terrible start for Hall and his squad.
Yes, they were always likely to lose to No. 5 Florida State and Tulane. But how do you explain the losses to Arkansas State and Texas State? In those contests, the defense gave up over 40 points and 400 yards in each game.
If there's one thing to be positive about, star back Frank Gore Jr. has gotten back on track, rushing for over 100 yards in back-to-back games.
The lack of consistent play at quarterback is still holding back this offense, but Gore has shown that he can carry this team before. He’ll be called on to do it again.
Old Dominion vs Southern Miss
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Old Dominion and Southern Miss match up statistically:
Old Dominion Offense vs. Southern Miss Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 97 | 54 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 106 | |
| Pass Success | 125 | 89 | |
| Havoc | 132 | 49 | |
| Finishing Drives | 129 | 105 | |
| Quality Drives | 132 | 114 | |
Southern Miss Offense vs. Old Dominion Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 78 | 55 | |
| Line Yards | 115 | 26 | |
| Pass Success | 115 | 85 | |
| Havoc | 71 | 79 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 49 | |
| Quality Drives | 87 | 80 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 33 | 115 |
| PFF Coverage | 72 | 98 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 132 | 69 |
| Middle 8 | 115 | 131 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.5 (11) | 27.7 (82) |
| Rush Rate | 58.3% (82) | 49.2% (94) |
Old Dominion vs Southern Miss
Betting Pick & Prediction
When the college football lines first opened on Sunday, this was a game I wanted to see first, and Southern Miss being listed as a favorite jumped off the page.
Let’s recap the last two weeks.
The Golden Eagles went to Arkansas State as seven-point favorites, and they lost outright. USM followed that up by giving up 42 points in the first half to Texas State, taking a 32-point deficit into halftime.
I just don’t believe ODU should be an underdog here, so my best bet is to take the Monarchs on the moneyline at +105 at BetMGM — and I'd bet them to -120.
One big advantage in this matchup for Old Dominion is Explosiveness. On offense, ODU ranks second among non-Power Five programs in that category, while the Golden Eagles are in the bottom five in the metric defensively.
Southern Miss also needs to be able to run the ball to have a chance. However, the Monarchs have excelled at Rush Success (55th) and Line Yards (26th) on the defensive side of the ball.
Old Dominion already has a win over Louisiana and covers against Marshall and Wake Forest. All of those teams are much better than USM, so I’m happy to keep fading the Golden Eagles until proven wrong.
