Week 4's college football slate is spectacular. And after Week 3's slate, it's well-deserved. Week 3 featured zero ranked-on-ranked matchups, but Week 4 features six such showdowns.
After a Friday night Mountain West showdown between Boise State and San Diego State, my betting card continues with two top-20 battles on Saturday afternoon.
First, Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes travel to Eugene to face a Pac-12 powerhouse in Bo Nix and the Oregon Ducks. The Buffs enter that game as three-touchdown underdogs as Shedeur Sanders and Co. face their first real test of the 2023 season.
Then, former Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin travels to face his old boss when the Ole Miss Rebels meet Nick Sabam and the Alabama Crimson Tide in Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Just like that, we turn our attention to the night games with two more ranked matchups on deck.
Two years after taking down Penn State in a top-five showdown in Kinnick Stadium, the Iowa Hawkeyes will travel to Happy Valley to take on a national title-caliber Nittany Lions team looking for revenge.
And to close it all out, the Ohio State Buckeyes make the trip to historic South Bend to play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a top-10 edition of a game that underwhelmed last season. With the spread within a field goal in 2023, fireworks are sure to be flying under Touchdown Jesus.
So, check out my full betting analysis and picks for all five Week 4 college football matchups below.
Collin Wilson's Week 4 Betting Card
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from this week's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | Fri., 10:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Boise State vs. San Diego State
The Mountian West conference schedule has concluded with a conference championship game since 2013. If history is any indication, this clash between Boise State and San Diego State from Snapdragon Stadium will have a heavy hand in determining a conference favorite.
Either the Broncos or the Aztecs have secured a spot in the championship game every season since the inaugural title game.
Boise State had a rough start to the season against stout nonconference competition. The Broncos fell by a boatload of points in the opener to Washington, only to succumb in a nail-biter when hosting UCF.
Both sides of the ball have struggled to meet preseason expectations just as the Broncos have started to pack a travel bag. Boise State will play at home on the Smurf Turf just twice between now and November.
San Diego State will be playing its fifth consecutive game after starting the season with a victory over Ohio in Week 0. The Aztecs have lost two straight to Pac-12 competition — a blowout against UCLA and a covering effort against Oregon State.
SDSU will play this game and then host Air Force next week to finish half of its schedule before the month of October.
With both teams desperate for a victory after a tough stretch of nonconference games, the winner in Week 4 will have the inside track to the Mountain West Championship game.
Boise State Broncos
Head coach Andy Avalos has a resume full of successful stops as a defense assistant and coordinator. That aspect has not translated to the field over the past two seasons at Boise State. The Broncos have shown continued struggles in creating Havoc, primarily generating a pass rush and posting tackles for loss.
Fundamentals have been loose to this point, as safety Seyi Oladipo and linebacker Marco Notarainni lead the team in tackles while also posting seven combined missed tackles.
The struggles for the Broncos are not limited to the defensive side of the football, as the Boise State offense ranks near dead last in Passing Success Rate.
Quarterback Taylen Green leads a new scheme under coordinator Bush Hamdan. The third-year quarterback has been inconsistent, posting four interceptions on 89 passing attempts after posting only six interceptions in all of 2022.
By design, Green hasn't left the pocket much with only two designed rushing attempts versus six scrambles on the season.
.@taylengreen17 using the legs to put @BroncoSportsFB on the board 🐴
📺: @FS1pic.twitter.com/SwfJJGmp38
— Mountain West (@MountainWest) September 16, 2023
San Diego State Aztecs
Head coach Brady Hoke entered Mountain West Conference media day worried about the experience and depth in the trench in 2023. Those worries have turned into subpar results, as the Aztecs rank dead last in Defensive Rushing Success Rate.
Defensive interior players Tupu Alualu and Darrion Dalton were lit up against Oregon State, failing to record a pressure with just a trio of tackles against the stout Beavers rushing attack.
Coverage has been strong for San Diego State, particularly at the cornerback position with eight combined pass breakups from Dezjhon Malone and Noah Tumblin.
Mira Mesa Alumni Noah Tumblin with the Interception for San Diego State pic.twitter.com/uNTviEztnO
— San Diego Football (@Daygofootball) September 3, 2023
Once a heavy rushing attack with multiple running backs, the Aztecs offense has transformed into a scrambling clinic under quarterback Jalen Mayden.
The former defensive back has been given the green light by offensive coordinator Ryan Lindley to tuck the ball and run in any down and distance. While Mayden continues to struggle with turnovers in passing attempts, the senior has eight explosive runs and leads the team in rushing yards.
Listed at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, the quarterback averages a bulldozing 3.5 yards after contact and is the best source of scoring for San Diego State.
All 6-3, 220 of Jalen Mayden was MOVING on this TD run@AztecFB 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Qs4XUapApQ
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) September 3, 2023
Boise State vs San Diego State
Betting Pick & Prediction
There are two primary handicaps when it comes to a showdown between two dominant Mountain West programs.
Boise State will look to create explosives while keeping Green in the pocket, but San Diego State will ask Mayden to take off and run from the pocket on every offensive possession.
These two teams have played a similar strength of record and strength of schedule to this point, each posting similar defensive numbers against the rush.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty had issues holding onto the rock against North Dakota in Week 3, recording two fumbles after posting just one in 156 rushing attempts last season.
The numbers are down across the board for Jeanty, who's been limited on explosive runs. His yards-after-contact number has dropped a full yard from 2022.
Despite the issues in the running game, Boise State ranks 22nd in offensive momentum killer rate, which measures drive-killing events such as penalties and turnovers.
The San Diego State offense has been much more chaotic, ranking 113th in Havoc Allowed and 116th in offensive momentum killer. Scoring opportunities have not been fruitful, as the Aztecs have averaged just three points on 22 drives that extend past the opponent's 40-yard line.
The Boise State defense has been susceptible to allowing big plays on the ground, but San Diego State's rank of 109th in rushing EPA will limit the number of scores from explosives.
The Action Network power ratings indicate all the value on the spread resides on the Boise State side.
There's a large discrepancy in favor of the Aztecs in terms of special teams, Middle 8 scoring, penalties and third-down conversions. But ultimately, while both quarterbacks are complete wild cards in passing downs, the Broncos' ability to establish a ground game with a higher ranking in Line Yards and Stuff Rate gives the visiting team the advantage.
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No. 19 Colorado vs. No. 10 Oregon
A storybook season continues for the University of Colorado after it has shattered every buzz metric available.
The Buffaloes survived a post-midnight overtime tilt with Colorado State, drawing the eyeballs of 9.3 million viewers.
A preseason win total of 3.5 is now in reach before head coach Deion Sanders reaches the toughest portion of the schedule. Colorado will travel to Autzen Stadium for its first Pac-12 conference game against Oregon, where head coach Dan Lanning cast shade on the Buffaloes earlier this summer.
The bar is set much higher for the Ducks, who already own a 3-0 record with three covers thanks to a tremendous bad beat at Texas Tech. Despite losing an offensive coordinator over the offseason, Oregon still features one of the most powerful offenses in the nation.
Lanning has had nothing but praise for Sanders in press conferences leading up to kickoff, as Oregon enters the game with full health.
The question remains if the heavy emotional toll and physical injuries catch up with Colorado, or if the magical season continues on the road in conference play.
Colorado Buffaloes
No player may be more important to their team than Travis Hunter.
The Jackson State transfer has provided the Buffaloes with 157 snaps on offense and 185 snaps on defense, filling out the roster at wide receiver and cornerback. Colorado must fill the gap on both sides of the ball, an easier task on the offensive side.
Hunter was third in targets behind Xavier Weaver and Jimmy Horn Jr. Weaver averages 2.5 yards per route run, providing all the explosiveness needed for the Colorado offense.
Shedeur Sanders strike ➡️ Xavier Weaver for the 24 yard TD! #Coloradopic.twitter.com/0Hgm4nvuGZ
— Video from: @TSV__1 (@TSV__1) September 17, 2023
The slack on the defensive side of the ball will more than likely fall to Ole Miss cornerback transfer Kyndrich Breedlove. The sophomore did not play in 2022 but provided 53 snaps of relief for Hunter against Colorado State.
Breedlove was targeted immediately by the Rams, allowing five catches and a touchdown on seven targets. The coverage numbers were not at the national average, so there's every expectation that Oregon will focus on targeting the Buffaloes' cornerback.
Outside of the loss of Hunter, Colorado is struggling to establish the rush offensively and collect third-down stops defensively.
No Colorado running back averages more than 2.9 yards after contact, as the unit has generated one of the lowest missed tackle rates in the Power 5.
Dylan Edwards has been a spark for the Buffaloes out of the backfield as a receiver, averaging more than five targets a game for 11.4 yards per catch.
The struggles continue on defense, where Colorado ranks 121st in third-down stops. This is a heavily penalized club averaging 8.3 flags per game for 67 yards.
Passing downs have been the biggest issue for Colorado, ranking 126th in Success Rate while allowing plenty of explosive plays. The injury to Hunter may expose the shallow depth on the roster just before the schedule hits the stiffest part of the season.
Oregon Ducks
Down an offensive coordinator, the Ducks have not missed a beat in 2023. Coordinator Will Stein was hired from UTSA after a one-year stint in the same role for the Roadrunners, implementing minimal changes to the Ducks offense.
Oregon has continued aspects of personnel from Kenny Dillingham's offense, running 60% 11 and 30% 12 through three games this season.
The pre-snap splits are nearly identical from last season to the present, running primarily pistol in rushing attempts and heavy motion preceding a pass attempt.
One thing that has not changed? Oregon is still the best team in the nation in terms of Quality Drives.
The Bo Nix/Tez Johnson connection remains ELITE🎯
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 17, 2023
The Oregon offense is the best in the nation in offensive momentum killer with only 1.9% of plays featuring a negative event. With 211 snaps on the season, Oregon is guilty of one fourth-down stop, two penalties over 10 yards and just a single sack.
The narrative changes on the defensive side of the ball, as the Ducks continue to struggle to stop the rush. Texas Tech boasted the best ground attack on Oregon's schedule thus far, and the Red Raiders averaged a whopping 60% Success Rate in rush attempts, averaging 7.7 yards per play.
Oregon's tackling and coverage numbers come in above last year's averages, but its lack of run defense is the biggest concern for the Ducks entering conference play.
Colorado vs Oregon
Betting Pick & Prediction
The look-ahead line at multiple shops had Oregon -13.5 for this Week 4 game against Colorado. That number opened 16.5 on Sunday morning before a pile of steam raced the number to three scores.
Market entry is important when making any wager, with the biggest question surrounding where this number will close. The Action Network Power Ratings put this game squarely on Oregon -21, but additional steam could hit the market on Saturday with SP+ calling for a 28-point victory for the home team.
The area where the Ducks are most vulnerable is their defense against the rush. However, Colorado has been unable to string together methodical drives utilizing the ground game, instead electing to throw on 60% of snaps.
With a rank outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate and Havoc Allowed, Colorado likely won't be able to generate clock-eating drives in an attempt to slow down the Ducks.
Any number at Oregon -21 or better is worth investment, with other options in play if steam hits leading up to kickoff.
As for the total, the mathematical calculation calls for the game to land on 74 based on tempo, Finishing Drives and net yards per play. Courtesy of former Kent State head coach Sean Lewis, the Colorado offense averages a "Flash Fast" 23.5 seconds per play, a full three seconds faster than Oregon.
The pace is there to cash the over of 70.5, but a sagging number in Colorado Quality Drives and Finishing Drives may limit scoring opportunities for the Buffaloes.
With the best defensive player down for Colorado, there should be no boundaries on the Ducks' ability to drive the field and score. No team has a higher combination of Quality Drives and Finishing Drives than Oregon, as it ranks top-five nationally in both categories.
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No. 15 Ole Miss vs. No. 13 Alabama
There might not be a game with more moving parts in Week 4 of college football than the SEC showcase featuring Ole Miss and Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
The Rebels have yet to beat the Crimson Tide in the Lane Kiffin era, covering two of their three games since the pandemic season of 2020. Over the summer, the head coach thanked the media for giving Alabama all the motivational ammunition it needed, as the entire season in Oxford rides on beating the Tide.
In his news conference on Sunday, Kiffin went as far as to talk specifics about Alabama's defensive scheme, inferring that coordinator Kevin Steele is no longer calling plays. Tide coach Nick Saban was quick to clear up any confusion on staff duties.
"Kevin Steele is the defensive coordinator," Saban said.
There was already a bevy of news from the Alabama side before the latest Kiffin comments. Elusive in naming a starter through the offseason and the first three weeks, Saban landed on quarterback Jalen Milroe, who started the first two games but did not play against South Florida in Week 3, to take duties under center in the SEC opener for both teams.
The Alabama offense is in desperate need of a jolt after producing just 41 points combined against Texas and USF.
All eyes in the SEC will descend on Bryant-Denny Stadium, where Ole Miss has a chance to make noise in the West Division standings.
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss is one of the few teams still undefeated against the spread. There certainly is a bit of mirage in that statement after nearly suffering a loss to a Tulane team with a backup quarterback and a couple of late garbage-time touchdowns against Georgia Tech.
The Rebels escaped the Yellow Jackets without further injury to their skill positions.
Running back Quinshon Judkins carried the ball 13 times after being listed as doubtful, while explosive wide receiver Tre Harris sat out the Week 3 game with a knee injury.
Despite the injuries, quarterback Jaxson Dart has plenty of explosiveness with slot receiver Jordan Watkins.
Even with a strength-of-schedule rank of 78th, the Rebels have been one of the best offenses in the nation.
Kiffin will have the ability to attack the Alabama defense on the ground or through the air, and defensive coordinator Pete Golding could provide an assist after an extended stint in the same role under Saban.
Speaking of the Ole Miss defense, the nonconference slate was unable to expose any potential flaws of the Landshark defense. Safeties Daijahn Anthony and John Saunders Jr. have provided three pass breakups apiece.
At least 22 players have logged 40 snaps on defense, as Golding is committed to heavy rotations to keep players fresh.
The most impressive aspect of Ole Miss' defensive start is passing downs and scoring opportunities. Ole Miss is now a top-25 team in Success Rate and explosives in passing downs. Opponents have only logged eight drives past the Rebels' 40-yard line, resulting in an average of 1.6 points per attempt.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama's returns at quarterback have been rough through three games. Milroe took the start against Middle Tennessee and Texas, generating four turnover-worthy plays against the Longhorns.
Two interceptions and two fumbles contributed to an offensive momentum killer rank that has fallen to 77th in FBS. Milroe has a 29.2% pressure-to-sack ratio, which ranks in the top 10 of any quarterback with at least 60 dropbacks on the season.
The Alabama offensive line has struggled to provide protection, falling to 101st in pass blocking, per PFF.
One area of concern last season was the ability to create separation on the outside at the skill positions. In that respect, Isaiah Bond and Kobe Prentice have been excellent for the offense, as each has generated at least 2.3 yards per route run on a combined 18 targets.
In combination with a running game featuring Roydell Williams and his 4.6 yards after contact, the only concern for the Crimson Tide is the offensive line and Milroe's decision-making.
The defense has been fantastic at harassing opposing quarterbacks, specifically from the edge. Defensive ends Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell lead the team with 29 combined pressures. Meanwhile, Deontae Lawson ranks third nationally in individual stops.
Alabama has allowed one of the lowest numbers of 10-yard gains, with the only concerning factor centering around Havoc. The Tide fall to mid-FBS or worse in categories such as pass breakups and tackles for loss.
Ole Miss vs Alabama
Betting Pick & Prediction
The first handicap for this game comes in the form of a power-rating difference between Ole Miss and Texas. While the two teams have completely separate identities, the Rebels are 7-point underdogs just two weeks after the Longhorns had the same market number entering Bryant-Denny Stadium.
The Action Network Power Ratings would make Texas a 4.5-point favorite over Ole Miss on a neutral field, indicating Alabama has dropped in rating two consecutive weeks to the Horns and South Florida. There certainly is justification for this number based on the Crimson Tide's performance over the past eight quarters.
The USF box score can be thrown out from an offensive standpoint when it comes to Alabama. Both Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner needed snaps in non-garbage time to see if a resolution could be made at the QB position. Both quarterbacks were lackluster, completing just five passes in a downpour.
The biggest worry is the running backs and offensive line consistently missing stunts and blitzes. South Florida posted five sacks and eight tackles for loss, producing a 43.2% Stuff Rate against the Crimson Tide's offensive line.
In 116 rushing attempts, Alabama has been hit at the line of scrimmage 58 times and has been stuffed 27 times.
Unless coordinator Tommy Rees tailors the offense to Milroe's strengths, Alabama will continue to struggle.
The question remains whether or not the Ole Miss offense can take advantage of the Crimson Tide defense. Tulane's defensive line stuffed 15-of-31 rushing attempts, giving Ole Miss a Stuff Rate 20% higher than the national average. The Rebels were repugnant in passing downs against the Green Wave, averaging three yards per play with a low 24% Success Rate in 25 snaps.
The biggest key number in totals is 55, where the market currently resides as of this writing.
All of the questions in this game come on the offensive side of the ball for both teams.
Will Judkins return to form after averaging 2.8 yards per carry against Georgia Tech? Will the Alabama offensive line protect Milroe against three- and four-man blitz attempts? Will Rees get the Crimson Tide offense out of a pro-style five-step drop and allow Milroe to run mesh RPO plays? Will Ole Miss' Harris be fully recovered from a knee injury? How much of a rust factor is there with transfer wide receiver Zakhari Franklin?
The constant for these teams has been the defense. With Ole Miss owning a quality ranking in Defensive Finishing Drives, along with top-35 marks in tackling and preventing explosives, it could limit Alabama's scoring.
Ole Miss scoring has not been linear to this point. In two FBS games, the Rebels have generated a combined 41 points in quarters one through three, exploding for 44 points in the last two fourth quarters.
With Kiffin ready to switch play-calling based on Alabama's perceived switch in defensive play-calling, look to take a first-half under with so much noise coming to Tuscaloosa in Week 4.
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No. 24 Iowa vs. No. 7 Penn State
As the Iowa Hawkeyes descend upon State College, expect the chorus of boos to welcome coach Kirk Ferentz and his players.
Penn State traveled to Iowa City two years ago and lost, as both quarterback Sean Clifford and defensive interior PJ Mustipher fell to injury during the game. Iowa fans and coaches were irritated by the situation, perceiving that the Nittany Lions were doing everything possible to create extra timeouts in what would be a close Hawkeyes victory.
Ferentz was later quoted to say that fans "smelled a rat," which is enough poster-board material to make Happy Valley a hostile environment on Saturday.
Both teams enter this week's game undefeated, looking for a critical win with major Big Ten opponents looming on the upcoming schedule.
The Nittany Lions benefited from five Illinois turnovers last week, pushing the Illini offense behind the chains to generate an average distance of 10.2 yards on third downs. Penn State is the most successful defense in college football in terms of standard downs, a key against an Iowa offense that found points in Week 3.
The Hawkeyes took advantage of Western Michigan in Kinnick Stadium, exceeding 25 points for the first time this season.
Defense and special teams are essential to the identity of Iowa, as both units may be called upon to score in a game that will be heavy in Havoc.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Just as the sun rises in the East, the Hawkeyes continue to play outstanding defense. Already a top-five unit in coverage grading and preventing the big play, Iowa has limited opposing offenses to just 12 drives beyond the 40-yard line while submitting an average of 2.4 points per scoring attempt.
Only 20% of opponent drives are considered successful, ranking best in the nation in shutting down explosives in standard downs.
Surprisingly, Iowa has not benefitted from turnovers through three weeks of play. Linebacker Jay Higgins leads the team in tackles, while sixth-year edge Joe Evans has already created 12 pressures in just 20 pass rush attempts.
The contractual clause for a bonus payout based on Iowa's points per game looms large over every offensive drive. Coordinator Brian Ferentz must average 25 points per game this season for a number of contractual reasons, a signal that Iowa would open the offense and look to be more vertical.
Transfer quarterback Cade McNamara has attempted to make Iowa a downfield passing team, attempting 15 passes over 20 yards through three games. Accuracy beyond 10 yards has been a severe issue for the fourth-year quarterback, as his overall adjusted completion percentage is down nearly 10% from career averages.
One bright spot for the offense is the emergence of Leshon Williams at running back. The Hawkeyes rank outside the top 100 in most rushing statistics, but Williams has produced nearly as many explosive runs in 98 fewer attempts in comparison to 2022.
With a yards-after-contact bump that's up a full yard to 3.5, Williams is expected to get more of the workload in a game that will be decided on who controls the trenches.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Expectations were as high as ever for James Franklin entering his 10th season as head coach at Penn State. The Nittany Lions have lived up to the hype with a covering effort in all three victories.
The defense is playing at a national-title level, as it's top 10 in Success Rate against the rush and the pass. A rank in the top 15 in Quality and Finishing Drives has made it difficult for opponents to even create scoring opportunities.
Penn State ranks 16th nationally in generating long third downs, as opponents have averaged 8.3 yards per conversion attempt.
An injury scare came in the second quarter against Illinois for quarterback Drew Allar. Diagnosed as a right arm injury, Allar didn't miss a snap until the game was out of hand late in the fourth quarter. The sophomore quarterback has yet to throw an interception and has recorded just one turnover-worthy play in 148 career passing attempts.
Offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich has been heavy on calling rushing plays with two star running backs in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. While the elusiveness numbers are down from a season ago, the duo has produced seven rushing touchdowns and caught 11 passes out of the backfield.
If there was a downside to the offense, the lack of explosive plays from the passing games would be in scope. Penn State ranks 132nd in creating explosives on pass plays, leading to a Passing Downs Success Rate of 74th.
Lack of opportunity is in play, as just 8% of Allar's passing attempts have been over 20 yards.
The passing game has thrived on plays shorter than nine yards in distance, as KeAndre Lambert-Smith draws the most targets while floating from out wide to the slot.
Iowa vs Penn State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Weather could be in play in State College Saturday night with rain and winds around 10 miles per hour forecasted. The early total money came on the under, pushing this below one of the biggest keys of 41.
A general rule of thumb when betting totals is that wind is the cause of totals going under the closing number, while precipitation can cause advantages for the offense in downfield cuts.
Both Penn State and Iowa kickers have hit 50-yard attempts in their career, a noteworthy item with winds projected to stay low.
The biggest handicap comes in the ability of each offense to move against defenses that are the best in the Big Ten. Both of these teams rank top-20 in offensive momentum and strength of record.
Penn State is the best in the nation in Havoc Allowed, measuring how often a tackle for loss, sack or pass breakup is recorded against the Nittany Lions.
Conversely, Iowa is the most disciplined team in the nation, averaging just 18.3 penalty yards per game.
There's reason to believe Penn State will move the ball, as Iowa ranks 92nd in generating Havoc. The Hawkeyes are no longer producing turnovers and have taken a slide in producing tackles for loss.
Iowa has been average defending the rush against the offenses of Western Michigan, Iowa State and Utah State. There's an expectation the ground attack of Singleton and Allen will produce Quality Drives and set up scoring attempts for Penn State.
The Action Network projection makes Penn State a favorite of 15 points, indicating no value in the point spread. However, the projected total comes at 53, thanks to the Nittany Lions' ability to convert scoring opportunities into points.
Penn State has scored a touchdown on 14-of-17 visits to the red zone this season.
Look for Penn State to continue a methodical march to the end zone, while Iowa pieces together drives good enough to generate field goal attempts.
Both of these defenses are capable of producing scores, a point of emphasis for the accuracy issues with McNamara.
If Franklin needs points to cover at the end of this game, expect the total to exceed the closing number.
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No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame
A clash of AP Top 10 teams will commence as Ohio State and Notre Dame both look to return to the College Football Playoff.
Historic South Bend will be the site when the Buckeyes enter under Touchdown Jesus to take on a Notre Dame team wearing its Kelly green combo of jersey and pants.
The Buckeyes lead the series, 5-2, with five consecutive wins dating back to 1995.
Both of these teams have undergone transformations at the quarterback position since Ohio State's victory in Week 1 of the 2022 season. The Irish won the transfer portal sweepstakes in the offseason, bringing in a Heisman-contending quarterback in Sam Hartman, who gave Navy a Dublin shillelagh beatdown in Week 0.
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes' offensive momentum was stalled to begin the season in the wake of a training camp quarterback battle. With Ohio State back on track offensively, there's potential for more fireworks than last year's 31-point slobber-knocker.
Ohio State Buckeyes
A couple of non-covers to start the season made people wonder if Ohio State's quarterback competition was still ongoing. Kyle McCord defused those worries with a three-touchdown performance against Western Kentucky.
There are plenty of strengths in head coach Ryan Day's offense, none bigger than the weapons on the outside with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka.
Emeka Egbuka is the best WR2 in football pic.twitter.com/MI1Gzns7CI
— Brodie (@BrodieKnowsBall) September 17, 2023
While McCord's numbers have been beefed up against Youngstown State and Western Kentucky, the third-year quarterback has an even ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays.
The sample size is minimal, but in 13 pressured pockets, McCord has a 34% adjusted completion rate drop compared to a clean dropback. Notre Dame ranks 15th in pass rush, indicating that blitz heavy and often may be on tap in passing downs.
Ohio State's pass defense has been the best in the nation entering South Bend, with top-five national ranks in coverage, pass rush and limiting explosives in passing downs.
Denzel Burke has been fantastic at left cornerback, providing three pass breakups while allowing just five catches on 17 targets. Burke has logged six forced incompletions, trailing only Jacob Parrish of Kansas State for the national lead.
If there's a defensive hole to be attacked by Notre Dame, the Buckeyes rank 112th in Defensive Stuff Rate. The most glaring example is a Youngstown State rush that was stuffed on only seven of its 31 attempts.
No team has posted a 20-yard gain on the ground against Ohio State, but moving the chains in a methodical drive will be the plan of attack for Notre Dame.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Unlike last season, Notre Dame will field the more experienced quarterback in Hartman this year.
The sixth-year senior has been perfect passing the ball, tallying 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. All three of Hartman's turnover-worthy plays came against NC State's 3-3-5 defense, which terrorized the quarterback dating back to his years with Wake Forest.
A trio of wide receivers in Jayden Thomas, Jaden Greathouse and Rico Flores Jr. has been explosive, averaging more than 2.3 yards per route run.
Lifetime Chap, Jaden Greathouse, is at it again for Notre Dame as he hauls in his third career touchdown for the Irish. #GoIrish#GoChaps
Via @espnpic.twitter.com/33h1YhmVYh
— WestlakeNation (@Westlake_Nation) September 9, 2023
The Irish have been a run-first team, but a slide in Stuff Rate and Line Yards have been present against the defenses of Navy, Tennessee State, NC State and Central Michigan.
Audric Estime averages 4.7 yards after contact, bringing a cannonball mentality between the tackles. There has not been a lack of offensive continuity, as the Irish rank top-15 in Quality Drives and offensive momentum killer.
The defense will look for a repeat of the 2022 game against the Buckeyes in which it limited Ohio State at the line of scrimmage and locked down the explosive targets.
The linebacker position has stood out through the first quarter of the season, as Jack Kiser leads the team in tackles and Marist Liufau leads in pressures.
If there's a concern with the Notre Dame defense, it's tackling fundamentals. Notre Dame ranks 86th in tackling, per PFF, with a drop to 114th in defensive broken tackle rate. Linebacker JD Bertrand and safety Xavier Watts have been the biggest offenders to this point with a combined nine missed tackles.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame
Betting Pick & Prediction
There's an expectation this game will be more aggressive from an offensive play-calling perspective compared to last year. Day was adamant about establishing the rush entering last season's game, but the playbook entering this game has been more hidden.
The film through the Buckeyes' first three games has been generic, as McCord has connected on just five plays beyond 20 yards through the air. The run game featuring TreVeyon Henderson, Chip Trayanum and Miyan Williams will be on full display considering the Irish's mid-FBS ranks against the rush.
Ohio State has as many question marks against the rush as Notre Dame, as the Buckeyes enter this game 112th in Stuff Rate. The inability to stuff Youngstown State and Western Kentucky is a sign that Estime has the chance to move the chains a dozen times against the Buckeyes.
Expect Burke to cut the field in half when Hartman enters passing downs, limiting what the Irish will do in the passing game.
Look for both running games to be effective, as each defense has concerns in tackle grading and Stuff Rate to control the line of scrimmage.
Explosive plays should come at a premium with top-10 ranks for Ohio State's big-play defense against the rush and Notre Dame's big-play defense against the pass.
With moderate gains for both offenses covering the trench, look for excellent secondary play and the new clock rules to keep scoring at a minimum.
