Week 7 is upon us.
There are a number of slate-leading matchups this week, and it all starts when Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes host the Stanford Cardinal from the friendly confines of Folsom Field on Friday night.
Then, the action rolls over to Saturday when Sam Pittman and the Arkansas Razorbacks travel to Tuscaloosa to take on Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide in an SEC West battle.
At 3:30 p.m. ET, the best game on the slate takes place in Seattle as the Washington Huskies host the Oregon Ducks in a top-10 Pac-12 clash that could have serious implications for the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
Finally, to wrap it all up, freshman star Dante Moore and the UCLA Bruins will prepare to battle DJ Uiagalelei, Damien Martinez and the Oregon State Beavers in what is essentially a must-win game in the Conference of Champions.
I broke down all four games and made a pick for each one below. So, read on for my Action Network betting card for Week 7 — and hopefully we can get these to the window.
Collin Wilson's Week 7 Betting Card
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from this week's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 10 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Stanford vs. Colorado
Frustration is the mindset of Colorado head coach Deion Sanders. After a narrow escape against Arizona State, Sanders relayed his message about a Buffaloes squad that's consistently marred by inefficiencies, penalties and a kicking game that's not up to standard.
Colorado has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation: fourth in strength of schedule and top-30 in strength of record. If the Buffaloes have aspirations of making a bowl game, Friday night is a must-win against a Stanford team without a conference victory.
Head coach Troy Taylor had the Cardinal ready for a season opener against Hawaii. The new offensive scheme was full of pre-snap motion, turning into misdirection and moving offensive lineman after the snap.
Opponents took notice of the film, though, as Stanford has now lost four straight, including a loss to Taylor's old team in Sacramento State.
Now the Trees leave The Farm for the first time since Week 2, a drubbing provided by USC. The Cardinal will look to enter Boulder at full strength under center, desperately needing a victory in the inaugural season for Taylor.
Stanford Cardinal
Stanford entered the season with a season win total that fell from 3 to 2.5 before opening kick.
Colorado may represent the best chance to get a second win for Stanford, with Washington, UCLA, Notre Dame and a host of others remaining on the schedule.
Taylor has brought his Sacramento State offense to Palo Alto, running a heavy amount of two tight end sets.
More than 58% of snaps are a rushing attempt, as Taylor prefers an even distribution of inside zone, power- and man-run concepts in a heavy set.
Quarterback Ashton Daniels is set to start after being knocked out of the Oregon game. The second-year quarterback has struggled in crowded pockets, with a 46% adjusted completion percentage and five turnover-worthy plays.
While the offense has struggled to get inside the top 100 in any analytical category, the defense has been at the bottom of FBS in multiple statistics.
Stanford is the worst-ranked defense nationally in allowing points in opponent scoring opportunities. In 23 opponent drives beyond the 40-yard line, Stanford is allowing an average of 5.3 points per attempt.
The nickel formation strives to stop explosives, often moving from a three-man to a two-man front depending on the down and distance. Stanford has yet to force a fumble and also has recorded the fewest tackles for a loss in FBS.
If there's an area that's a positive, the Cardinal rank top-25 in limiting explosives in passing downs thanks to their leading tackler in cornerback Collin Wright.
Colorado Buffaloes
There may be good news on the horizon for Colorado, as Travis Hunter is practicing with the team during Week 7 preparation. Hunter was third in targets offensively before suffering an injury against Colorado State, but his real impact came on the defensive side of the ball.
Lining up at cornerback, Hunter allowed just four catches on 12 targets while recording four pass breakups.
There have been improvements on defense as the season has progressed, as the Buffaloes rank in the top half of FBS teams in Line Yards and tackling.
Defensive coordinator Charles Kelly pivots between the 3-3-5 and 4-2-5 with the strongest coverage efficiency in quarters.
The offense has been in good hands with Shedeur Sanders, who has thrown 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Not only has Sanders contributed more than 2,000 passing yards, but the Jackson State transfer also has over 200 rushing yards with three touchdowns.
Wideout Xavier Weaver and slot Jimmy Horn Jr. lead the team in targets, complementing an offense that ranks 13th in Passing Downs Success Rate.
On 4th & goal Xavier Weaver takes it in for @CUBuffsFootball 🦬
This game is tied 💪 pic.twitter.com/bGwGZ7b0IF
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 7, 2023
Stanford vs Colorado
Betting Pick & Prediction
The numbers haven't been kind for Stanford or Colorado, two teams with a strength of schedule in the top 20 nationally.
While the defensive numbers are a product of playing high-octane offenses, it's the offensive struggle to generate opportunities and score points that will be the primary driver on Friday.
Stanford is 126th in Offensive Quality Drives, a statistic that measures offensive possessions that end in a score, last at least 10 plays, are longer than three minutes or cover 50 yards.
Colorado has a similar struggle, ranking 89th in Quality Drives and 102nd in Offensive Finishing Drives.
These ranks often correlate with Offensive Momentum Killer, another statistic with a focus on 10-plus yard penalties, sacks, fumbles, missed field goals and failed fourth-down conversions.
Both Stanford and Colorado rank bottom-20 of all FBS teams in Offensive Momentum Killer, which will make Friday night a consistent offensive struggle.
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Arkansas vs. Alabama
A head coach on the hot seat entering Tuscaloosa is never a great scenario. Sam Pittman and the Arkansas Razorbacks head to Bryant-Denny Stadium on a four-game losing streak.
The pitchforks for Pittman are out in Hogville, as the Hogs have not experienced a five-game losing streak since the 2019 season under Chad Morris.
Plenty of the criticism comes around the new offensive coordinator, Dan Enos, in combination with poor offensive line play.
While the defense has shown improvement from the 2022 version that won the Liberty Bowl, too many mistakes are being made halfway through the season.
While Arkansas looks for momentum, Alabama is in a full-swing rebound from a Week 2 loss against Texas. The Crimson Tide is the only SEC West team without a conference loss, sitting in the driver's seat in the toughest division of college football.
With tiebreaker victories over Ole Miss and Texas A&M, head coach Nick Saban is an LSU victory away from making travel plans for the SEC Championship Game. Alabama will enjoy some home-cooking against Arkansas and in a revenge spot against Tennessee.
For all the content creators who called for the end of Alabama, Saban only needs offensive line play to be a prime contender to win the College Football Playoff.
Arkansas Razorbacks
A confusing week of practice and game execution surrounded the Razorbacks against Ole Miss in Week 6.
Pittman shuffled the offensive line, moving preseason All-American Beaux Limmer to guard and sliding struggling right tackle Patrick Kutas to center.
The line has been under heavy scrutiny in Enos' first season. He runs a different style of offense than his predecessor Kendal Briles, opting for a slower tempo with slow-developing plays.
Play-action passes, reverse rush attempts and screen passes all require a line to execute. Kutas has allowed 23 pressures and 15 run disruptions, producing one of the lowest efficiency grades of any Power 5 offensive lineman.
The change in position did not last long, as both Limmer and Kutas lasted 33 snaps against Ole Miss before being moved back to their original positions. Kutas posted his worst run-blocking grade of the season, per PFF.
Pittman commented that the Ole Miss front was quick and the Arkansas offensive line was not "seeing the game like we practiced."
Arkansas now ranks 130th in Havoc Allowed, a statistic that measures tackles for loss, sacks, pass breakups, interceptions and fumbles. The primary driver for the Hogs' offensive struggles is 47 tackles for loss allowed for a total of 218 yards.
New defensive coordinator Travis Williams has changed the identity of the Razorbacks defense, moving to a 4-2-5 front with an aggressive 40% blitz rate. The secondary runs the bulk of pass defense snaps in cover 1, ranking just inside the top 40 in Passing Success Rate.
While the defense has been exceptional in producing a Havoc ranking in the top 25, the Razorbacks are giving up a large number of explosive plays in passing downs.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama has hit a stride, covering in a road victory against Texas A&M after posting multiple score wins against Mississippi State and Ole Miss.
Despite a Havoc Allowed rank at the bottom of FBS teams, Alabama has started to clean up critical mistakes.
Quarterback Jalen Milroe was excellent against a tough Aggies defense, logging four big-time throws and just a single interception. The third-year signal-caller now has twice as many big-time throws as turnover-worthy plays in passing attempts while rushing for 287 yards and creating 16 missed tackles.
The nickel defense under coordinator Kevin Steele has also produced national title-contending numbers, ranking as the best coverage unit in FBS, per PFF.
The Crimson Tide have one of the best defenses in the nation at knocking opposing offenses off schedule, ranking sixth in Standard Downs Success Rate.
Alabama has one of the best success rates in limiting explosive plays through cover 3 and quarters coverage.
Arkansas vs Alabama
Betting Pick & Prediction
Alabama will face a second consecutive opponent with a Havoc-minded defensive front.
Arkansas sends a heavy amount of blitz, creating a negative play on 21% of attempts with a 60% success rate. Williams does not hesitate to send more than four pass rushers, putting the focus on Milroe's ability to protect the ball and scramble.
While heavy blitz can produce plays that end offensive drives, it can also issue great field position. Both Arkansas and Alabama rank 130th and 126th in Havoc Allowed, respectively. Each defense is expected to come after the quarterback, taking advantage of two offensive lines that have been subpar against their SEC peers.
Both offenses have the ability to be explosive in busted passing attempts. Arkansas and Alabama rank top-10 in offensive passing downs explosives, with expectations that many possessions will contain turnovers and long touchdowns.
Arkansas was a possession away from upsetting Alabama in this very spot two seasons ago, a game that ended with 77 points.
The Action Network projection makes Arkansas a 15-point underdog with a total of 46. Look for enough busted plays and explosives from Milroe and Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson to get over the total.
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Oregon vs. Washington
After 114 meetings dating back to 1900, there may not be a bigger rivalry in the Pacific Northwest in any sport than Oregon vs. Washington.
Both teams enter Week 7 ranked in the top 10 with hopes of winning the last Pac-12 Championship.
The Huskies lead the all-time series, 61-48-5, but recent history has been all Ducks. Oregon has won 15 of the last 18 editions of this game, but new Huskies head coach Kalen DeBoer is 1-0 in this series against second-year Ducks head coach Dan Lanning.
Thankfully, the rivalry will continue in the Big Ten, but the 2023 version may be the best in series history. Both Oregon and Washington enter the game undefeated off bye weeks with quarterbacks high on the Heisman board.
Each team has had a game with a one-possession victory. Oregon survived a Week 2 trip to Texas Tech, while Washington struggled to put Arizona away in Week 5.
The stakes could not be higher, as the winning team will have the inside track to the College Football Playoff with a quarterback who may emerge as the Heisman favorite.
Oregon Ducks
The 2023 season has been nearly flawless for the Ducks, as they have already blasted two Pac-12 opponents in Stanford and Colorado.
However, the Ducks were challenged in Lubbock, needing 20 points in the fourth quarter to overcome a deficit against the Red Raiders. The defense was shredded on the ground in that game allowing 7.7 yards per play and four explosive runs.
Thanks to four offensive turnovers by Texas Tech, Oregon escaped with a victory in one of the biggest bad beats of the season.
PICK 6 TO TOP IT OFF FOR THE DUCKS! 😱 🦆 @oregonfootballpic.twitter.com/1XgoNCGYWa
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 10, 2023
Oregon has a poor strength of schedule at 106th, giving immediate attention to a poor ranking of 56th in Defensive Line Yards. Thankfully for Oregon, the Huskies run the ball on just 40% of offensive snaps, making the focus of this game on the secondary for the Ducks.
PFF grades Oregon's back seven as the 15th-best coverage unit in college football. Lanning runs quarters and cover 1 both with a high Success Rate. Both Colorado and Stanford are pass-first offenses, and each failed to generate more than six points against the Ducks.
The offense has been electric through the air and on the ground. Oregon ranks second in plays per point, trailing only USC. This is the highest-ranked offense nationally in Quality Drives, supported by an overall top rank in drives that contain two-plus first downs and exceed 50 yards.
No offense has fewer momentum killers than Oregon, with the number of fumbles, interceptions, missed field goals, fourth-down turnovers and sacks at a grand total of seven in 42 possessions.
A trio of running backs in Bucky Irving, Jordan James and Noah Whittington average more than eight yards per carry, allowing quarterback Bo Nix to rush only seven times this season.
Washington Huskies
Oregon has the highest Success Rate combination between the rush and pass than any other offense in the nation, with Washington as a close second.
Where the Huskies lack in available yards, the big play has created quick scores for quarterback Michael Penix.
The current Heisman favorite, Penix has a 16:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, going well below a career average of 2.1% in turnover-worthy plays.
The sixth-year senior has his highest average depth of target in his career at 11 yards, leading the nation in passes over 10, 20 and 30 yards.
#Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. just drops this so causally
in the bucket. Can’t throw it any better pic.twitter.com/USEvoHivTy— Devin Jackson (@RealD_Jackson) September 24, 2023
No matter the coverage, Penix has dominated opposing defenses with a group of pass-catchers who are the most explosive in college football. Averaging two yards per route run is considered explosive, and Washington touts three options who average at least 3.2 yards per route run.
Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan average at least 15 yards a catch with 11 combined touchdowns.
If there's a worry for the Huskies, defensive coordinator Chuck Morrell has not produced a unit capable of stopping the rush. Washington ranks in the bottom 20 in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate after facing the Power 5 offenses of Arizona, California and Michigan State.
The Huskies have fallen to 85th in red-zone defense, allowing 10-of-12 scores to go for a touchdown.
Oregon vs Washington
Betting Pick & Prediction
Oregon is expected to attack Washington where the Huskies have struggled most: defending the rush. Arizona posted an above-average Success Rate in standard downs and rushing attempts and won the time of possession battle by keeping Penix off the field.
The Wildcats created a methodical drive rate three times better than the national average, providing the blueprint to beat Washington.
The Ducks' elite running backs can do damage against a Washington defense that falls outside the top 100 in Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Nix's usage is a larger mystery for this game after logging just four designed rushing attempts this season. The super-senior quarterback posted 18 zone- and 18 gap-scheme runs last season, a contributing factor to a late-season high ankle sprain.
If Nix has his number called in rushing attempts or manages to leave the pocket for scramble yards, there will be big advantages for an elite Oregon offense.
While Nix has an average depth of target that has dipped this season, Penix has seen his number of explosives increase. Oregon's 3-3-5 defense has been fantastic at limiting explosive plays thus far, but it has not faced a powder-keg offense such as Washington.
Action Network projects this game at Washington -2 with a total of 76. There's action on both sides in the market, with Oregon taking in money at +3 and Washington getting bettors' attention at -2.5 or better.
However, the best bet in this game is on the total, specifically with Oregon.
Washington has struggled when opponents get into scoring position, ranking 66th in Defensive Finishing Drives. The Ducks will have extreme advantages moving the chains and in rush explosives against a Huskies defense that ranks 115th in Defensive Rush Expected Points.
Pick: Oregon Team Total Over 32.5
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UCLA vs. Oregon State
The Pac-12 has long lived as the conference with high-flying passing offenses, capable of producing 100-point games during the late Saturday window.
If there are two teams that break the mold, Oregon State and UCLA are ushering in an era of gritty rushing attacks.
Both the Beavers and Bruins have a single loss in the Pac-12 standings, making this a must-win game with three other teams sitting undefeated for the right to play in the conference championship game.
Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith has the Beavers just a single victory away from a third consecutive bowl, a result that will surely send the sixth-year coach to the top of every Power 5 athletic director's list.
UCLA has a single loss at Utah in a grinding game that culminated with a costly turnover from a freshman quarterback.
The biggest surprise of the season has come on the defensive side of the ball with a new coordinator in place. The Bruins have been one of the most efficient defensive units in Havoc and Success Rate, factors that were on full display against an explosive Washington State offense.
While the Beavers and Bruins aren't necessarily a must-win for the postseason, the loser of this game will be looking at a massive two-game deficit in the Pac-12 standings.
UCLA Bruins
UCLA's hiring of defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn from the staff of the Baltimore Ravens came as a surprise in the offseason. With no prior coordinator experience, Lynn spent the prior 10 seasons as a position coach in the NFL.
The success of Ravens position coaches as defensive coordinators with Michigan football provided the blueprint for college football to raid the NFL staff.
Lynn runs a 4-2-5 scheme on most defensive snaps, pivoting to a 4-3 in known short-yardage attempts. UCLA is one of the heaviest blitz defenses in the nation, generating a whopping 60% success rate.
Preseason All-American Laiatu Latu leads the team with 28 pressures and 18 quarterback hurries. While the pass rush has been terrorizing, safety Jaylin Davies leads the team with four pass breakups, a big part of a coverage grade that ranks second in the nation, per PFF.
While the defense has carried the water during certain parts of the season, UCLA now has plenty of experience in the books for a true freshman quarterback sensation.
Dante Moore ➡️ Logan Loya for SIX 🙌
📺: Pac-12 Networks
📲: https://t.co/v42BPkE478#GoBruinspic.twitter.com/Y4KFnvgsN2— UCLA Football (@UCLAFootball) October 7, 2023
Despite the electricity following Dante Moore in his young career, there have been catastrophic plays.
A pair of pick-six plays against the defenses of Washington State and Utah are expected from a true freshman, but a closer look at the numbers show progression.
Moore has 15 big-time throws to just six turnover-worthy plays, as defenses have acknowledged that cover 3 has been the most detrimental to the young quarterback.
Oregon State Beavers
The ground-and-pound nature of the Oregon State has been the foundation of the offense, but the surprise of the season has been the explosives in the air and during passing downs. The Beavers have posted 26 passing plays of 20 yards or more, good enough to rank 20th in the nation in long passing plays.
Transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has been fantastic, racking up 13 touchdowns to just four interceptions with a low 1.8% turnover-worthy play rate.
Compared to previous seasons, Uiagalelei's passing numbers have far exceeded his three years and nearly 1,000 dropbacks at Clemson.
Talk about "opposite hash arm strength"… how about a 32 yard out to the opposite hash by DJ Uiagalelei here. DJU had the highest passing grade in his career against Cal on Saturday (93.5) pic.twitter.com/7jPt64ACmW
— Clint Brewster (@clintbrew247) October 9, 2023
Combined with the elusive running of Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick, Oregon State boasts one of the most efficient and now one of the most explosive offenses in the nation.
The struggles for the Beavers have come on the defensive side of the ball, specifically against the run. Oregon State sits outside the top 100 in both tackling and Defensive Rushing Success Rate.
Opponents are creating explosive rushing attempts at a high clip despite a top-40 rank in Defensive Quality Drives and Finishing Drives. Oregon State ranks 120th in passing downs success rate, allowing nearly 19 first downs per game.
UCLA vs Oregon State
Betting Pick & Prediction
There will be two different styles of tempo when UCLA and Oregon State meet in Week 7. The Beavers prefer methodical drives at a slow 29 seconds per play, whereas the Bruins move at a quicker pace 0f 23.8 seconds per play.
Oregon State has the ability to push around most defenses in standard downs, but UCLA has been stingy against methodical offenses. The Bruins are third nationally in Defensive Quality Drives thanks to top-20 ranks in Success Rate, Stuff Rate and Havoc.
The ultimate battle is a UCLA defense that ranks third in hard stops taking on an Oregon State offense that sits 12th in momentum killer rate.
The Beavers are sure to find themselves in passing downs, an area where a heavy statistical advantage exists in explosives. UCLA presents cover 1 and cover 3 to most opponents, an advantage for a quarterback in Uiagalelei who has shredded cover 3 this season with a 64% Success Rate.
A similar aspect exists for Moore on the other side of the ball. Oregon State flashes quarters coverage more than almost any other team in FBS. Moore has posted an average Success Rate of 48% against quarters, but an EPA of 0.24 is well above average and signals that explosives are coming for UCLA.
The Action Network Power Ratings call for an Oregon State cover of the market number, but the value is on a projected total of 63.
Both teams will have middling success in running the ball straight at the opposing defenses. Each offense has advantages against opposing coverages in passing downs, which is big for two defenses that are outside the top 100 in broken tackles.
With 55 being the largest key in college football totals, look for a number of explosive plays to get an over to the window.
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