One of the greatest days of the year is here! It's time for the first full Saturday of the 2023 college football season — and that means it's time for a longshot college football parlay for Week 1 that almost certainly will not cash.
That's the first thing to keep in mind as we break down the Week 1 college football odds with our nearly 1000-1 college football parlay for Saturday, September 2. This college football Week 1 parlay is the definition of a lottery ticket. More generally, you also pay a ridiculous amount of vigorish on parlays. Sportsbooks love when we bet them, because they make money that way.
And while we are leveraging picks from our best Action Network college football betting experts and their thoughts on the college football odds for Week 1, combining this many bets into one college football parlay ticket is something we're doing purely for entertainment.
So, let us say that one more time — this absurd parlay is strictly a "for fun" Saturday play. I myself will be putting $10 on it for the chance to win just shy of $10,000, knowing full well that the odds are I will never cash one of these in my life. And that's OK, as long as we all know that.
College Football Parlay Week 1: +99499 Longshot Parlay
Note: For this parlay, I read all of our experts' college football Week 1 analysis and picked out my favorite bets. Each of the pick explanations below features an excerpt from the respective expert's full College Football Odds Week 1 picks and betting preview. For more on each pick and the full analysis, click the links at the top of each pick.
- Colorado vs TCU over
- Oklahoma -35 (play to -37.5)
- Washington -14
- North Texas moneyline
- USC vs Nevada over
- UL Monroe moneyline
- Colorado State +12.5 (play to +10.5)
- Alabama -39 (play to -40)
- UCLA -14.5
I am also placing each of these bets individually, so it's not entirely all-or-nothing. And make sure to check your sportsbook bonuses! I was able to use a 50% parlay boost on this absurd parlay at my sportsbook of choice.
Collin Wilson: Colorado vs TCU over 63.5
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | +650 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
Wilson: Because of the expected tempo in the game, the natural look is to the over. The new clock rules did nothing to trim plays per game or scoring in Week 0, but with both TCU and Colorado expected to rely more on explosives than first downs, this game has the ingredients to be high-scoring.
Our key numbers in totals indicate that 65 is our limit when placing an over bet. Because TCU is expected to field a much better defense, look to back a Horned Frogs team total over if the game total exceeds 65.
Michael Calabrese: Oklahoma -35 (play to -37.5)
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+35.5 -110 | 58.5 -105o / -115u | +2000 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-35.5 -110 | 58.5 -105o / -115u | -10000 |
Calabrese: The main reason I’m enamored with this play is Jeff Lebby. The Sooners’ OC has been a great play in spots like this dating back to his time running the UCF and Ole Miss offenses. As a double-digit favorite, Lebby’s offenses have averaged 47 points per game while posting an 11-5 record against the spread.
Dillon Gabriel, who enters the season fully healthy, was a perfect triggerman in this offense last season. He had seven starts in which he accounted for three or more touchdowns and five starts in which he finished with a QBR north of 80.
The offensive line lost some talented tackles, but still returns three seniors and a fourth-year junior. With time to work, he’s going to carve up a listless ASU secondary.
And while Brent Venables doesn’t appear to be a man who cares about style points, it’s clear that a resounding blowout win could help him with the local media and fans after an offseason that screamed “the honeymoon is over.”
Collin Wilson: Washington -14
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -720 |
Wilson: The Huskies are one of the elite passing teams in the country.
If there's a lesson from Kalen DeBoer's first year as head coach, it's that Washington won't lift its foot off the offensive gas pedal in the second half. The 2022 Huskies ranked third nationally in second-half scoring and 16th in fourth-quarter scoring, per Sport Source Analytics.
Don't expect DeBoer to let up in the second half as the former Fresno State coach is 9-1 against the spread in his career in non-conference games. Action Network projects Washington as 16.5-point favorites, giving the Huskies' current market number value.
Collin Wilson: North Texas +230
| California Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 54 -112o / -109u | -286 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -107 | 54 -112o / -109u | +230 |
Wilson: This will be a defense-optional game with whoever can finish drives the most efficiently taking the game outright. I'll take my chances with the Mean Green offense at home in the sweltering heat, which could serve as a major detriment to Cal as the game wears on.
Plus, I see the Bears having early offensive execution issues. Not only will Cal be breaking in a new system, but it also has new personnel on the offensive line and at quarterback.
For what it's worth, since the beginning of his tenure at Cal in 2017, fading Justin Wilcox as a favorite and betting him as an underdog has netted a ridiculous 43-21-1 ATS record (67.2%). That includes a 2-8-1 mark as a favorite in non-conference matchups.
PRO System: Nevada vs USC Over
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+38 -110 | 66 -110o / -110u | |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-38 -110 | 66 -110o / -110u | |
Alex Kolodziej: The public and pros are aligned on tonight's Nevada vs. USC over/under. We've tracked 69% of the betting tickets — and even more money (88%) — betting Saturday's Nevada vs. USC game to go over the total.
The Wolf Pack vs. Trojans over has been getting slammed with smart coin all week, setting off Big Money and Sharp Action alerts.
Also, top college football experts in our app will be rooting for another high-scoring USC game as they also locked in the Nevada vs. USC over.
USC's offense, led by Caleb Williams, ran through San Jose State's defense like a knife through hot butter last week.
The only problem — still — is a Trojans defense that struggles to tackle.
Bettors of all shapes and sizes — sharps and experts included — are on Saturday's Nevada vs. USC over.
PRO Report Prediction: Nevada vs. USC Over
Stuckey: UL Monroe +300
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 46.5 -112o / -108u | -385 |
| ULM Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 46.5 -112o / -108u | +300 |
Why not bring the NFL Network into the mix on this glorious real first day of the college football betting season?
When it comes to identifying a viable underdog moneyline, I like to hunt for games with heightened variance, especially early in the season. Well, that's exactly what we have here with Army breaking in a new quarterback and shifting its offensive scheme.
I also never mind fading a service academy as a double-digit favorite because triple-option teams have trouble gaining separation in games with lower possession totals. The new clock rules will also be even more magnified for offenses that rely on the ground game.
For reference, service academies have gone 66-83-2 against the spread (44.3%) as double-digit favorites since 2005.
And even more relevant, if you faded them on the moneyline away from home as 10-plus point favorites, you would've gone 11-24 (31.4%). That doesn't look great on the surface, but that actually would've generated a gaudy 51.6% ROI. A $100 bettor would have turned a profit of over $1,800 over those 35 games. Not bad.
Michael Calabrese: Colorado State +12.5 (play to +10.5)
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -470 |
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +360 |
Calabrese: The Cougars have a new defensive coordinator tasked with remaking their pass rush. Washington State couldn’t generate much pressure last season (73rd in sack rate), then lost its most disruptive player, linebacker Daiyan Henley, who recorded 12 tackles for loss last year.
Francisco Mauigoa, another key player in the middle, transferred to Miami (FL).
Yes, Washington State brought in a slew of interesting transfers on defense, but if a team is going to catch them, it'll likely be early and at home.
We have both conditions here in Fort Collins, which is why I’m taking the points and sprinkling on the moneyline.
Stuckey: Alabama -39
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+39 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | +2750 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-39 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | -80000 |
Stuckey: Not only do I show value in this number and expect Alabama to play with a purpose throughout, but I'm also super low on Middle Tennessee, a negative regression candidate after its recent turnover luck.
The defense could take a major step back without that turnover fortune, especially after losing sack leader Jordan Ferguson (now with the Seahawks) and defensive back Decorian Patterson, who will play his sixth year at UCF after leading FBS in interceptions last season.
More critically, I just don't know how Middle Tennessee will score against this caliber of defense. I'll throw out a prediction of 48-3.
Collin Wilson: UCLA -14.5
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -115 | 66.5 -108o / -112u | +470 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -105 | 66.5 -108o / -112u | -670 |
Wilson: I'm not fearing the hook — nor a potential backdoor cover from uber-talented Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall — and am backing the Bruins after head coach Chip Kelly has said all three quarterbacks will play.
Whoever is under center can lean on bruising Ball State transfer Carson Steele in the running game and will have two new toys on the outside to play with in Cal transfer J. Michael Sturdivant and Kam Brown, who transferred from Texas A&M in 2021. That spells bad news for an inexperienced Chanticleer secondary that projects as potentially the worst in the Sun Belt.
I love McCall, but Coastal is overmatched here and won't be able to keep up.
College Football Parlay for Week 1
- Colorado vs TCU over
- Oklahoma -35 (play to -37.5)
- Washington -14
- North Texas moneyline
- USC vs Nevada over
- UL Monroe moneyline
- Colorado State +12.5 (play to +10.5)
- Alabama -39 (play to -40)
- UCLA -14.5
