Week 11 of the college football season is here.
Now that conference play is ramping up even more, we have more data on teams now that we're getting into the heart of the college football schedule. That's a great benefit, especially in the totals market.
With Week 10 rapidly approaching, here are the pace numbers for each team through Week 10:
If you're new to this piece, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick things off with three over/unders to bet in Week 11.
Penn State vs. Michigan
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -196 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +162 |
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This is the biggest game of the weekend, and I think it's going to play out similarly to the Ohio State vs. Penn State game in Week 8.
Penn State is great offensively when it's playing with a lead and quarterback Drew Allar doesn't have to make any throws downfield. Over 70% of Allar's pass attempts this season have come under 10 yards, and he's averaging only 6.4 yards per attempt.
Sure, he lit up Maryland for four touchdown passes, but that was his first game since Week 2 against Delaware in which he averaged over 7.0 yards per attempt. So, it probably wouldn't shock you to know that Penn State ranks 129th in the country in passing explosiveness.
The bad news for Allar is he will be going up against the second-best secondary in the country in terms of Passing Success Rate and EPA/Pass Allowed.
Yes, Michigan has played one of the easiest schedules in the country, but Allar's inability to throw the ball down the field consistently is a major hindrance to the Penn State offense.
Even the Penn State rushing attack hasn't been that effective. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen both average under 4.7 yards per carry, but the Nittany Lions still boast a top-40 unit in Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush.
However, they're not explosive whatsoever on the ground, as they sit 121st in rushing explosiveness.
Michigan is one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run, allowing only 3.1 yards per carry and sitting top-five in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush Allowed.
What Michigan has done defensively — even with an easier schedule — is pretty impressive. Purdue was the first team this season to score over 10 points against the Wolverines, and the Boilermakers' lone touchdown came in garbage time. It's almost as if Michigan knows — never mind, I'm not going there.
Michigan's offense has been incredibly efficient, but the only defense it's played that ranks in the top 40 for yards per play allowed is Rutgers.
The Wolverines' style of play also plays very well for the under.
The Michigan offense is built on methodically moving the ball down the field while sucking the life out of the opposing defense. The Wolverines run the ball on 57.4% of their offensive plays and are behind only Air Force in playing at the second-slowest pace in the country, running a play every 30.6 seconds.
The offense isn't necessarily built on big plays; it's built on positive EPA plays over and over again. Michigan is currently sitting 106th in explosiveness, but it's generating a positive EPA on 52.2% of its offensive plays, which is top-10 in the nation.
Penn State's defense has been one of the best in the nation this season, as the Nittany Lions are allowing only 3.8 yards per play, which leads the country. They've done a fantastic job stopping both the run and the pass, ranking inside the top five in both EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush Allowed.
The pace of this game should be incredibly slow, with both teams wanting to run the ball at a high rate and trying to control the clock, so I think we have another Big Ten defensive slugfest on our hands.
Pick: Under 44.5
Indiana vs. Illinois
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +215 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
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I know it's probably surprising, but Illinois is playing at a pretty fast 23.8 seconds per play pace, which ranks 21st in the nation.
Quarterback Luke Altmyer got hurt on the final drive against Minnesota, but he's probable to play against Indiana.
Altmyer has been an interesting case this season because he's been amazing in the short passing game, as well as throwing the ball over the top of the defense, but the intermediate passing game has been quite awful.
Image via PFF.
Altmyer had a good game at Minnesota last week before getting hurt, going 24-for-31 for 212 yards and three touchdowns. He should be able to throw on an Indiana secondary that ranks 88th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Illinois should be able to dominate up front and run the ball with a lot of success. The Fighting Illini's offensive line ranks 31st in Stuff Rate Allowed and 30th in Offensive Line Yards, while Indiana sits outside the top 100 in both of those categories defensively.
Indiana's offense has been nonexistent at times this season, and the advanced data on the Hoosiers is pretty bad. Indiana ranks 113th in Success Rate, but it actually hasn't been that bad in the past two games, putting up a combined 44 points against two good defenses in Wisconsin and Penn State.
Brendan Sorsby has taken over at quarterback for the last three games, and he has put up decent results. However, the biggest problem is that he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the country when under pressure (38.4 PFF passing grade) and the offensive line has done a poor job of protecting him, as he's pressured on 37.2% of his dropbacks.
The good news for Sorsby is that the Illinois secondary is well below average, ranking 89th in Passing Success Rate Allowed. The Illini also have little to no pass rush to speak of, owning a pressure rate of just 24.5% on the season to rank 117th nationally.
Indiana has been running the ball at a high rate with Sorsby under center, but it hasn't been very successful. However, the three teams it faced — Rutgers, Penn State and Wisconsin — are all in the top 50 in yards per carry allowed and Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
Illinois is nowhere near that mark, ranking just 91st in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
With the Illini playing at a fast pace and their defense continuing to take a major step back from last season, I think the total is too low here in Champaign. I like the value on over 43.5 points.
Pick: Over 43.5
Washington State vs. Cal
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -114 | 58.5 -115o / -105u | -105 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -106 | 58.5 -115o / -105u | -114 |
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To say the Cal defense has played poorly since it entered Pac-12 play would be putting it lightly. On four separate occasions, it's given up 50 or more points. The only team it's held under 30 points thus far is Arizona State.
What has gone horribly wrong for the Golden Bears is that they have one of the worst secondaries in college football. They rank 131st in Passing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed.
Oregon quarterback Bo Nix just threw for 386 yards and four touchdowns against them last week, and during conference play, Cal has allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 8.6 yards per attempt.
So, this is a perfect opportunity for Washington State's Cam Ward to have a huge day.
Ward has been up and down this season. He'll have games, like the one against Oregon State, where he lights up an opposing secondary for four touchdowns, and others where he looks like he can't complete a pass.
Image via PFF.
One thing is for sure, though — Washington State is going to throw the ball no matter what. Wards ranks top-five in passes attempted this season, as the Cougars throw the ball on 62.8% of offensive plays. He'll have plenty of chances to light up one of the worst secondaries in the country.
On the other side, Cal has an excellent rushing attack that can give Washington State a lot of problems in this game.
The Golden Bears rank top-30 in Rushing Success Rate an EPA/Rush, and it starts up front. They're dominating the line of scrimmage, ranking fourth in Offensive Line Yards and seventh in Stuff Rate Allowed.
Lead back Jaydn Ott has been thriving in this system, averaging 6.8 yards per carry during conference play and has already forced 24 missed tackles. That should work well against a Washington State defense that can't tackle (91st in PFF tackling grade) and can't stop the run (116th in EPA/Rush Allowed).
Both of these offenses are playing at a really fast pace, ranking inside the top 35 in seconds per play. So, with major advantages for both offenses and a fast pace, I think we'll see a high-scoring affair in Berkeley.
Pick: Over 58.5
