Every week, as a part of my homework on the Group of Five, I sit down and watch the entirety of UAB head coach Trent Dilfer’s Monday press conference.
It’s better than a cup of coffee because he instantly invigorates me by saying something breathtakingly stupid or actually insightful. For example, he noted that when he loses, his wife appears less attractive to him, his kids are more annoying and his food sucks. That’s actually something that came out of the former NFL quarterback's mouth.
He’s also someone who enjoys dissecting the game and will often offer a detailed analysis of his upcoming opponents' schemes. But even when he reels off three-to-four minutes of coaching gold, he can’t help himself from reaching into the cliché bag and pulling out a few lame catchphrases.
This week, on multiple occasions, he reminded the Birmingham press corps that “you are what your record says you are.” This quotation is credited to NFL Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells.
And in the multi-million dollar coaching game, it’s true that wins and losses define you more than anything. But in the world of college football betting, wins and losses often mask who you really are at your core. It’s the advanced stats that do a far better job determining who you really are, even if Dilfer likes to remind anyone who will listen to him that “stats are for losers.” Again, another real quote from this week.
There was no better example of wins and losses masking reality than in the Sun Belt this past Saturday. James Madison traveled to Utah State and surrendered 500 total yards, went 3-for-12 on third downs and turned the ball over five times. Yet, it escaped and covered as six-point favorites, thanks to a pair of interceptions in the final three minutes of the game — one at the goal line and one off a flukey drop that landed right in the defender's hands.
Likewise, Troy was kissed by an angel, escaping with a three-point home win over Western Kentucky that included a Hail Mary touchdown at the end of the first half.
On the other side of the coin, Appalachian State lost at Wyoming when it had a late fourth-quarter field blocked and returned for a touchdown. The Mountaineers more than doubled Wyoming's total yards, yet they fell to the Pokes.
And finally, there was South Alabama, which, despite protecting the ball (0 giveaways) and outgaining its opponent by 50 yards, lost at home to Central Michigan. With the Chips set to face a fourth-and-10 in the closing minute, an unsportsmanlike penalty was called against a South Alabama player who was retaliating against a CMU lineman. That automatic first down saved CMU, which would go on to win the game four plays later.
As Al Pacino once said about the game of football in Any Given Sunday, “The margin for error is so small.”
He was both right and wrong. The difference between winning and losing can be a single play, and those tiny margins are magnified into concrete wins and losses.
But more often than not, particularly in the middle of a season, there are teams that are propped up by good fortune more than anything else. To put a finer point on it, unsustainable good fortune.
This week I’m looking to identify the teams that I believe are fool’s gold as we enter October and those snakebit teams poised to set bear traps moving forward.
Fool’s Gold
Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks are 4-0 straight up (SU) and 4-0 against the spread (ATS), besting the closing number by an average of 12.8 points per contest.
They’ve demolished Portland State, Hawaii and Colorado in Eugene and won by eight on the road in Lubbock over Texas Tech.
So, why do I believe they’re overvalued as a national title contender and at the window moving forward? Turnover luck and their upcoming strength of schedule.
For starters, they wouldn’t have covered against Texas Tech if not for a final-minute pick-six against a 1-3 Red Raider team. But it wasn’t just that game where the Ducks benefitted sizably from the turnover battle. Oregon has turned the ball over just once all season long, despite four fumbles (zero recovered by the defense) and three turnover-worthy throws from quarterback Bo Nix.
The Auburn transfer has been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde during his career, playing lights-out at home and fairly mediocre on the road. At Oregon, his touchdown-to-interception ratio at home is an eye-popping 26:2, while his road splits are 12:5.
And since his arrival, Oregon has had the benefit of facing four of its six top-25 opponents at home. His lone neutral-site game against a ranked opponent came in a 49-3 blowout against Georgia. And when he played a true road game, his Ducks lost to Oregon State, 38-34.
The Ducks will travel to No. 7 Washington and No. 10 Utah in the month of October. And beyond those two road tests, their schedule will take a massive jump up in competition.
Here are the Sagarin Rankings of their opponents thus far:
- Portland State (172)
- Texas Tech (35)
- Hawaii (136)
- Colorado (72).
They’re set to face four top-25 Sagarin teams in the next six weeks. So, buyer beware with the Ducks.
Oklahoma Sooners
Like Oregon, OU is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, with an even better +14.9 mark against the closing number on a game-by-game basis.
The Sooners have whipped Arkansas State, Tulsa and SMU in nonconference play. Arkansas State (130th) and Tulsa (94th) are far down the board of Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings, and SMU is off to a 2-2 start with an offense that ranks outside the top 70 in terms of Offensive Success Rate.
A murderer’s row this was not. Even Cincinnati, OU's best win of the season, had already lost to Miami (OH) at home.
And there’s that pesky turnover margin again. Oklahoma ranks fifth nationally at +1.75 per game. The Sooners haven't been wildly lucky in the fumble department, but teams are throwing them interceptions left and right.
I expected an uptick from their horrific pass defense a year ago (120th), but this jump-up is wholly predicated on turnovers. The Sooners, who rank 63rd against the pass, still give up explosive plays through the air (49th) and have feasted against porous offensive lines.
Offensively, they’ve been uber-efficient through the air — they lead the nation in Success Rate — and have been particularly effective between the 20s.
But there are warning signs ahead for the Sooners. Oklahoma ranks fifth in the Big 12 in red-zone touchdown percentage (72.73%), which is a bit troubling considering the lackluster competition it's faced. It has also found the sledding a bit tougher in terms of explosiveness following its breakout game against Arkansas State.
Oklahoma may continue to succeed against Big 12 also-rans like Iowa State, UCF and Oklahoma State in the coming weeks, which is why I’m zeroing in on the Red River Rivalry. The lookahead line is set at Texas -5.5, and I don’t believe that's accounting for just how improved the Longhorns are this season.
Texas has proven its ceiling by convincingly winning in Tuscaloosa, whereas Oklahoma’s defensive improvement has been measured against two programs rebuilding in Arkansas State and Tulsa and two that may struggle to reach bowl eligibility in Cincinnati and SMU.
Bear Trap
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia has jogged through its September schedule without breaking much of a sweat. Without a killer instinct, it's failed to cover a single game, falling short of the number by almost 10 points per contest.
There are reasons to believe that this is motivational and not a structural issue with the two-time defending champions.
First off, Carson Beck and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo have been feeling each other out. After a pair of ho-hum starts in which Beck finished with QBRs of 60.9 and 59.7, Beck appears to have turned the corner, especially in the second half against South Carolina.
Trailing the Gamecocks, 14-3, at halftime, Beck entered the locker room 13-for-18 for 98 yards with zero touchdowns. Since then, he’s completed 73.4% of his passes for 509 yards and three touchdowns in the past six quarters.
And critically, Bobo has remembered that he has Brock Bowers at his disposal. In those same six quarters, the All-American has exploded for 15 receptions, 167 yards and two scores.
We’ve been here before with Kirby Smart. Since arriving in Athens, Smart is 17-18 ATS when facing opponents outside of the SEC and a shockingly poor 16-26-1 (38.1%) as a home favorite. Only Vanderbilt has fared worse as a home favorite since 2016 in the SEC.
But there are two spots to start buying Georgia — against ranked opponents and as road favorites.
When Smart leads his team on the field against a team with one of those numbers next to its name, he’s 28-12 SU and 26-14 ATS. And when he’s favored on the road, UGA is a sparkling 25-2 SU and 19-8 ATS.
Essentially, when it’s time to get up for a game in a hostile environment or when they have a chance to impress the nation, the Bulldogs are a great bet under Smart.
Given those parameters, there’s a chance that they’re facing an AP Top 25 opponent or taking the field as a road favorite in six of the next seven contests. So, it’s time to invest in UGA.
Boston College Eagles
From a national power to a pesky ACC cellar dweller, it’s good to remember that gambling makes for strange bedfellows.
The Eagles are 1-3 SU and a matching 1-3 ATS. So, why are they on this list? Thomas Castellanos and BC’s tremendous work as a home dog in the past 4.5 seasons.
Castellanos, a UCF transfer, was thrust into action in the opener and has breathed fresh life into the BC offense. Last season, the Eagles finished 122nd in scoring, 121st in total offense and 90th in plays of 20-plus yards from scrimmage.
That has all changed under the dual-threat Castellanos.
The Eagles are dangerous on the ground (25th in explosives), limit negative plays (28th in Havoc Allowed) and recently stood toe-to-toe with Florida State.
Among quarterbacks, he ranks third nationally in rushing with 280 yards in 3.5 games worth of work.
Speaking of that near-home upset of the Seminoles, Boston College remains one of the best home dogs money can buy year after year. Dating back to 2019, BC is 10-4 ATS as a home dog, and it'll be barking later this season when it hosts nationally-ranked Miami on Black Friday.
But if you’re looking for ways to play the Eagles before that, you should target them against teams that have struggled to protect the football. The Eagles have generated just four turnovers all season, and given their new offensive ceiling, turnovers should translate to points with Castellanos running the show.
This week, they host Virginia — a team that has been turnover-happy (88th in giveaways) since naming true freshman Anthony Colandrea as its QB1.
But the Wahoos aren’t the only team left on BC’s schedule that's sloppy with the football. UConn checks in 70th in giveaways and 93rd in Havoc Allowed, and Pitt is even worse, grading out at 88th and 103rd, respectively.
As a short favorite against Virgina (-3.5), this is a perfect buy-low spot on a 1-3 team that is far better than “what their record says they are.”
