Saturday College Football Player Prop Picks
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 12 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
A full slate of college football bowl games could only mean one thing: player props galore.
Our NCAAF writers have a number of player props on their betting cards this weekend, including picks for Troy quarterback Gunnar Watson, Utah State wide receiver Terrell Vaughn and Eastern Michigan running back Samson Evans.
Check out all three player prop picks and full breakdowns for Saturday's college football bowl games below.
Troy vs. Duke
QB Gunnar Watson
Over 228.5 Passing Yards
Rashad Amos easily went over his rushing yards total last week for the Miami (OH) RedHawks, so let’s see if we can stay undefeated on player props during bowl season.
This play is almost more situational than anything. Duke has lost its quarterback and head coach so far, as well as a number of players on the defensive side of the ball.
Bowl games are often about who wants it more, and I can’t see any team ending their season with more of a whimper than the Blue Devils.
And that’s before even taking into account that Gunnar Watson has been one of the better quarterbacks this season as well. He's rocking an 88.1 PFF grade, which is good for top-20 among qualifying quarterbacks.
In addition, the Blue Devils have been soft against the pass all year, ranking 105th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Give me Watson to hit his over in what should be his last bowl game as a college quarterback against a depleted Duke team.
Pick: Watson Over 228.5 Passing Yards (Play to -120)
Georgia State vs. Utah State
WR Terrell Vaughn
Over 65.5 Receiving Yards
Terrell Vaughn may have taken a backseat to Jalen Royals in the second half of this season, but with Georgia State’s nonexistent defense on deck, there should be enough targets to go around in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
Vaughn was an A1 target hog through mid-October, gobbling up at least 10 targets in six of his first seven games. But quarterback injuries and the emergence of Royals cut into his opportunities in the back half of the season.
Luckily for bettors, that has depressed this number from the mid-70s — where I have it graded — down into the mid-60s.
I’m more bullish on Vaughn than the market because Georgia State rounded out 2023 as one of the worst pass defenses in America.
GSU finished 117th in Success Rate against the pass and gave up more aerial explosives than just about any team in the Sun Belt. The Panthers surrendered 26 pass plays of 30 yards or more (123rd) and were cooked by Georgia Southern, James Madison and Appalachian State in consecutive games late in the season.
Two receivers for Georgia Southern and App State eclipsed 90 receiving yards, and three finished with more than 55 yards for James Madison. Teams are spreading the football around, and everyone is eating against this Panther defense.
Game flow should help in this game as well because there’s a decent shot this game devolves into a good old-fashioned Potato Bowl shootout. Five of the last seven Potato Bowls have featured at least 65 combined points, and this total is sitting at 60 as of writing.
Pick: Vaughn Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 69.5)
South Alabama vs. Eastern Michigan
RB Samson Evans
Under 47.5 Rushing Yards
Nothing went right in Ypsilanti this year. After a 9-4 season in 2022, the Eagles came crashing back to earth.
It took wins over Howard, UMass, Ball State, Kent State, Akron and Buffalo for EMU to sneak into a bowl game. That's easily the worst bowl résumé you’ll see this holiday season.
And now, the Eagles been installed as one of the biggest underdogs. That could mean EMU is forced to abandon the run early.
Evans’ rushing prop is boosted by his play against Akron and Buffalo to end the season. He ran for 198 yards on 37 carries in those two games. But those two lifeless teams were waving the white flag and couldn’t stop the run to begin with.
If you look at Evans' performances in the Eagles' losses, he averaged just 34.5 yards per game on the ground.
And critically, South Alabama has the best run defense Evans will have face all season. The Jags finished 26th in Success Rate and 18th in limiting explosives on the ground.
The entire Jags starting defense is going in this game — no opt-outs — and EMU will be down to Ike Udengwu III at quarterback. He's a dual-threat signal-caller, but he really struggles to throw the football. In limited work this season, he was breathtakingly awful with a 13.5 QBR and a completion rate of 46.4%.
That will translate to seven and eight in the box all game. That's bad news for Evans and good news for under bettors on his rushing total.
Pick: Evans Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 45.5)
