HomeRight ArrowNCAAF

College Football Predictions, Picks: Stuckey’s Week 14 Bets for Clemson vs South Carolina, Alabama vs Auburn

College Football Predictions, Picks: Stuckey’s Week 14 Bets for Clemson vs South Carolina, Alabama vs Auburn article feature image
15 min read
Credit:

Imagn Images. Pictured (clockwise from left): Washington QB Demond Williams Jr., Mississippi State RB Fluff Bothwell, Illinois QB Luke Altmyer and New Mexico QB Jack Layne.

As I do each and every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card.

It's Week 14, which means this will be the final Spots piece of the college football season.

I will still have plenty of write-ups for the rest of the season before switching gears to college basketball.

My primary goal here is to discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each game, hopefully helping you make more informed wagers.

I write most of these up after betting them, and I log them in the Action App immediately. For reference, I'll note what I'd still play each to.

Last week, I finished at 4-6 (I'm counting Cincy 1H as a loss, as I noted in the quick hitters, since that got to +3), which was super disappointing considering how good the numbers I had were with 19 points of closing line value late in the season across 10 bets.

While that's great long-term, it sadly doesn't guarantee anything over a small sample size, especially on any given day.

Cincy 1H was pretty infuriating with the missed kicks, and Rutgers was cruel. But that's how the cookie crumbles sometimes.

As always, it's onto next week.

As I mentioned previously, I always strive for 55% on these each season. To get there for a fourth straight year, I'll need to go 9-0 this week.

Easy, right?

One can dream, especially on a very tricky week late in the year, where it can be tough to gauge motivation with some teams doing some very funky in-game things if it's their last game of the season.

Honestly, I'm probably more likely to go 0-9 than 9-0 with the way I've been seeing the board the past two weeks and running late in games, but I'll give it my best shot.

Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my 9 favorite Week 14 spots, with three on Friday and six on Saturday.

  • 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
  • 2025: 52-49-2 (51.5%)
  • Overall: 221-172-3 (56.2%)

Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Week 14.


GameTime (ET)Pick
Ole Miss Rebels LogoMississippi State Bulldogs Logo
12 p.m.Mississippi State +7.5
San Diego State Aztecs LogoNew Mexico Lobos Logo
3:30 p.m.New Mexico +1.5
Temple Owls LogoNorth Texas Mean Green Logo
3:30 p.m.Temple +20.5
Clemson Tigers LogoSouth Carolina Gamecocks Logo
12 p.m.South Carolina -2.5
Florida International Panthers LogoSam Houston Bearkats Logo
1 p.m.Sam Houston +10.5
Oregon Ducks LogoWashington Huskies Logo
3:30 p.m.Washington +7.5
Alabama Crimson Tide LogoAuburn Tigers Logo
7:30 p.m.Auburn +6.5
Northwestern Wildcats LogoIllinois Fighting Illini Logo
7:30 p.m.Illinois -7
SMU Mustangs LogoCalifornia Golden Bears Logo
8 p.m.Cal +13.5
Playbook

Header First Logo

Mississippi State +7.5 vs. Ole Miss

12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

I'm almost always interested in the Egg Bowl underdog, and that's no different this year.

You can throw any motivational angle out the window. Both of these teams won't be lacking in that department for an in-state rivalry.

Plus, the Rebels can lock up a spot in the College Football Playoff with a victory, while the Bulldogs can clinch a bowl bid one season following a two-win campaign.

From a pure numbers perspective, I do project this right around a touchdown, so I was fine taking the hook here.

Plus, there's at least some chance that all of the hoopla surrounding Lane Kiffin serves as a major distraction for his team ahead of this game. We've certainly seen his teams flop as favorites, costing themselves in the past. Look no further than last season when a more talented Ole Miss squad lost twice as double-digit favorites to Florida and Kentucky, which ultimately cost it a berth in the playoff.

And it's not like the Rebels haven't flirted with disaster this season. They do have five one-possession wins across one of the easiest SEC schedules, including four against Kentucky, LSU, Arkansas, and Washington State — not exactly a murderer's row of opponents. Even the corpse of Florida put a little bit of a scare into the Rebels in their most recent outing.

I also believe this is a prime opportunity to buy low on the Bulldogs after back-to-back blowout losses to Georgia and Missouri before the bye week, which they desperately needed.

Mississippi State doesn't have the bodies capable of surviving long stretches of SEC play without wearing down, so the extra week of preparation and rest should serve them well following a brutal seven-game stretch that capped off one of the 10 most difficult schedules in the nation to date.

Keep in mind, Mississippi State already upset a healthy Arizona State team at home earlier this season and arguably should have beaten Tennessee and Texas if not for a pair of blown leads that went to overtime. And if they don't throw an interception late at Florida in field goal range, they win in Gainesville, also.

The Bulldogs are just a few bounces away from being 8-3 across a much more difficult schedule than Ole Miss.

From a matchup perspective, it's hard to envision Mississippi State getting many consistent stops (especially on the ground). Still, the defense should at least come into this matchup as healthy (and fresh) as it has been in quite some time.

More importantly, its own rushing attack should get going in this matchup, which is when Jeff Lebby's offense operates at peak efficiency. On the season, Ole Miss ranks outside the top-100 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and can be pushed around at the point of attack.

That is music to Lebby's ears.

I'll take over a touchdown with the home pup that should be able to move the ball consistently. I can already hear the cow bells.


Header First Logo

Notable Nugget

Since 2005, as an underdog in the Egg Bowl, Mississippi State has gone 9-2-1 ATS (81.8%), covering by over a touchdown per game.

As a favorite? 3-5 ATS, which means the underdog in this rivalry has gone 14-5-1 (73.7%) against the number over the past 20 seasons.

Pick: Mississippi State +7.5 (-120) or Better



Header First Logo

New Mexico +1.5 vs. San Diego State

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

San Diego State has been one of the most pleasant surprises this season, perfectly symbolizing the beauty of the new college football landscape, which is marked by incredible year-over-year turnarounds (in both directions).

Having won (and covered) eight of their past nine games, the Aztecs now find themselves all alone atop the Mountain West standings. They simply need to win in Albuquerque to clinch a spot in the Mountain West championship.

While they can still get there with a loss, they may need help from others or the dreaded computer ratings in a multi-team tiebreaker.

What has led to the remarkable turnaround? Despite head coach Sean Lewis being known for his "flash fast" offense at Kent State, it's actually the defense that has carried the Aztecs all season long. Cornerback Chris Johnson is the star of the show and will play at the next level, but the entire group is stingy.

The offense, on the other hand, remains extremely limited. It's a unit I currently rank outside the top 100 nationally.

Lucky Sutton is a competent running back, which is what the Aztecs try to lean on as a complement to their relentless defense.

However, there is almost no juice in the passing attack (122nd in EPA), which at least could hit some explosives when healthy. Well, that's no longer the case with two starting receivers now lost for the season due to injury.

The most critical loss came recently when Jordan Napier (who has almost twice as many catches as the next leading receiver) went down against Boise State. Since then, the already anemic passing attack has turned to dust.

Over his past five games, quarterback Jayden Denegal has completed just 46 of 93 pass attempts (49.4%) for 548 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions. It's even uglier over the past two games, where he didn't even throw for over 100 combined yards.

That includes last week's 25-3 victory over a horrid San Jose State defense. The Spartans actually out-gained the Aztecs 268-248 in that game, but couldn't overcome an early injury to their starting quarterback and poor luck on fourth downs and in the turnover department.

The wide receiver injuries will be felt even more this week since the optimal way to attack this New Mexico defense is through the air. The Lobos have been extremely stingy against the run (which is why I loved them against Air Force), but are very vulnerable to offenses that can move the ball efficiently through the air.

That is certainly not San Diego State, especially without Napier.

Phone With the Action App Open
The must-have app for college football bettors
The best NCAAF betting scoreboard
Free picks from proven pros
Live win probabilities for your bets

While I did sing the praises of this San Diego State defense earlier, I do believe the Aztecs are a tad overrated, given that they've faced one of the easiest schedules in the country.

Not only is it a laughable schedule on paper, but they have also benefited from facing more backup or benched quarterbacks than any team in the country. Just take a look at the quarterbacks they have faced:

  • Carson Conklin (Fresno State), who was the original backup, has since been benched.
  • Tama Amisone (San Jose State), who came in early after Walker Eget got hurt.
  • Max Cutforth (Boise State) in his second career start after Maddux Madsen's injury.
  • Carter Jones (Nevada) in his first-ever start.
  • Jackson Brousseau (Colorado State) in his second career start.
  • Josh Holst (NIU), who was benched shortly after.
  • Jaxon Potter (Washington State), who was benched shortly after (36-13 Wazzu win).

The only other quarterback they beat in league play was Wyoming's Kaden Anderson, who has arguably been the worst starting quarterback in the country to keep his job.

It's almost impossible to face a more manageable schedule of opposing passing attacks. In fact, their only Mountain West game against a quarterback who began the year as the starter was against Hawaii, a game the Aztecs lost 38-6 on the island.

Keep in mind that New Mexico not only had the more difficult schedule on paper by a substantial margin, but also faced Boise State and San Jose State with their starting quarterbacks in games where neither opponent could get much on the ground. Those were the only two league losses for the Lobos, who have since won five straight to give themselves a chance at reaching the Mountain West championship with a victory.

If Boise State loses to Utah State, New Mexico would clinch a spot with a win and face San Diego State again in the title game. If Boise State wins, then it would come down to computer ratings to break a three-way tie (I believe).

In conclusion, I do think the San Diego State defense is a bit overrated based on the laughable schedule of opposing quarterbacks it has faced, and the Aztecs don't have the chops in the passing game to exploit the New Mexico defense.

While it won't be easy for the Lobos on offense, I do trust Jason Eck to scheme up enough points to get this win. Look out for the quarterback run packages with James Laubstein, who has given the offense some extra juice over the past month.

Lastly, SDSU usually has a significant edge in Special Teams, but New Mexico can match it there.


Header First Logo

Notable Nugget

San Diego State is the third-most profitable team to back in 2025, posting a 9-2 ATS record and covering by a whopping 9.5 points per game.

Only Texas Tech and Ohio State have fared better against the number in 2025.

Pick: New Mexico +1.5 or Better



Header First Logo

Temple +20.5 at North Texas

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

With a win, the Mean Green clinch a spot in the American Conference Championship game, where they will get a shot to clinch a berth in the College Football Playoff.

They are in pure must-win mode, which I believe is inflating this line a bit.

Keep in mind that it also puts all of the pressure squarely on their shoulders, so it can actually work against teams in this spot.

I also believe this is a decent chance to sell high on North Texas, following five straight covers in which it has benefited from some pretty fortunate fourth-down variance and a +8 turnover margin. That's tough to sustain, especially against a Temple team that ranks second in the country in fewest giveaways per game in large part due to quarterback Evan Simon having only one interception.

Imagn Images. Pictured: Temple Owls QB Evan Simon.

It's easy to forget this North Texas team has a pair of overtime wins against Army and Western Michigan, in addition to three others in which it had a net yardage edge of less than 35 yards (vs. UAB, Navy, and South Alabama).

The offense is absolutely incredible, led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker and stud freshman back Caleb Hawkins, who have thrived under the tutelage of Eric Morris, who has parlayed his success in Denton to a head coach position at Oklahoma State next season.

Will that be a potential distraction this week? Probably not, but it's worth noting.

While the offense has no holes, the same can't be said of a defense that even allowed Charlotte and Rice to reach 400 total yards.

It's an opportunistic defense that has improved dramatically against the pass this season (low bar, to be fair). Still, it has significant deficiencies slowing down opposing rushing attacks, ranking in the bottom-10 nationally in Success Rate allowed.

The Owls haven't had a great ground game this season, but their offense has operated best when it has any semblance of balance, which I believe it will in this particular matchup. That will, in turn, chew up the clock and set up some pass explosives, which Temple has thrived at hitting (and North Texas has surrendered at a high clip).

Additionally, Temple head coach K.C. Keeler (whom I think very highly of) should have extensive familiarity with North Texas' defensive scheme, as defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity held the same role under Keeler at Sam Houston State last season.

Even five of North Texas' top 11 defenders by snap count played at Sam Houston last season, so Keeler has extensive familiarity with their strengths and weaknesses.

That has to help with game planning.

Keeler did say Temple came out a little flat in practice earlier this week following a blowout loss to Tulane, which is a bit of a concern. However, I expect the Owls to be ready to play on Saturday with a chance to play spoiler and clinch a bowl for the first time since 2019.

Ultimately, I'm buying low on Temple since I see value in this number, and there might be some hidden game-planning edges for a Temple offense that should enjoy success on the ground, helping out Simon. The Owls should also finally have a fully healthy secondary for the first time in a month.

This is still a competent Temple team that has played a more difficult schedule, with a win over UTSA and a pair of 1-point losses to Navy (thanks to a blown call) and Army.


Header First Logo

Notable Nugget

In his career, KC Keeler is 8-3 ATS when catching 20-plus points against FBS competition.

The Owls are also 4-1 ATS on the road this season with an average cover margin of 12.1 points per game.

Pick: Temple +20 or Better



Header First Logo

South Carolina -2.5 vs. Clemson

12 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network

For starters, I make South Carolina a 3.5-point favorite in this rivalry game, so I didn't hesitate to lay under a field goal.

Both teams have had super disappointing seasons, but South Carolina can at least blame part of that on one of the most difficult schedules in the country. In fact, last week marked the first time since September that South Carolina didn't play a team ranked in the top 15.

The Tigers can't say the same, as their strength of schedule ranks outside the top-50 nationally (while South Carolina's ranks inside the top-five).

Clemson has an abundance of talent on defense, but no identity.

The offense has shown flashes, but there is no running game, and they are now shorthanded without stud wide receiver Bryant Wesco. They also recently lost their starting tight end and a pair of offensive linemen to season-ending injuries.

I don't envision Clemson consistently moving the ball on a very stingy Gamecock defense.

One might believe Clemson has turned things around of late, following recent victories at reeling Louisville and over road-averse Florida State, but I don't see it. The Tigers were out-gained by over 75 net yards at Louisville, which missed three kicks in a one-point loss. They were also out-gained at home by over 50 yards against Florida State, which just couldn't overcome countless mistakes.

This is still the same flawed team that has lost four times on its home field in 2025.

On the other hand, South Carolina has continued to get healthier, and there's reason for optimism on the offensive side of the ball.

Since changing play callers, the entire operation has looked much more effective. Mike Furrey has really simplified things for LaNorris Sellers, who looks much more comfortable and more willing to use his legs. They are getting him outside the pocket more, where he becomes more dangerous and helps cover up some of the existing offensive line issues.

It's no coincidence South Carolina put up 30 points in the first half in College Station (against a ferocious A&M defensive line) following the change.

Keep in mind that over the past month, this South Carolina team has recently upset undefeated Texas A&M and arguably should've beaten Alabama at home.

With an improving offense, I expect them to get the job done in what becomes their Super Bowl in front of a raucous crowd.

Lastly, South Carolina should also have a special-teams advantage, which can swing a game under Beamer.


Header First Logo

Notable Nugget

Dabo Swinney used to be a cash cow when catching points. Prior to 2020, he went 19-10 ATS (65.5%) as an underdog, but has since gone just 3-5 against the number in that role, including the postseason.

Parallels to the overall state of the Clemson program, perhaps?

Pick: South Carolina -2.5 or Better



Header First Logo

Sam Houston +10.5 vs. FIU

1 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+

Sam Houston State is dreadful, but I have to give credit to the Bearkats for still fighting after starting the season 0-8.

They have since won two of three games outright as underdogs, and I don't see why they would mail it in here.

Plus, new quarterback Landyn Locke now has two starts under his belt, including the freshman's most recent outing, where he threw for 281 yards. He still has significant flaws and is very raw, but he does seem to be the best fit for Phil Longo's offensive scheme. It's not unreasonable to expect another step in the right direction this week.

However, this bet really isn't about Sam Houston State, so I'm not going to waste your time waxing poetic about a terrible football team.

I made this bet for two reasons:

  1. I project this closer to 8.5, so I show value at +10.5.
  2. There's a decent chance FIU doesn't get off the bus in a very flat spot.

The Panthers won thrillingly last week over first-place Jacksonville State to clinch a bowl berth, a significant accomplishment in Willie Simmons's first season as head coach.

It's also worth noting that they really benefited from Gamecock mistakes in that victory. Jacksonville State went 1-for-4 on fourth down (FIU went 3-3) and either turned it on downs or fumbled three times in the fourth quarter of a six-point loss in which they out-gained FIU 449-398.

It was a similar story the week prior for the Panthers, who benefited from fourth-down variance and turnover luck in a home overtime victory over Liberty, which also finished with more yards.

Following two straight thrilling victories to clinch bowl eligibility, does FIU show up with a focused effort for a road game in an empty stadium against lowly SHSU?

It's possible, but I'll pay to find out at a reasonable price.

This is a large number for a team that has defensive issues, bad special teams, penalty problems, and a head coach who struggles with in-game decisions to be laying on the road, especially with potential motivation questions.

Admittedly, FIU is maddeningly inconsistent, so you never know what you're going to get each week.

Let's hope the bad version shows up this week in a spot where they might be out to lunch.


Header First Logo

Notable Nugget

This will mark only the third time over the past 20 years that FIU is a double-digit road favorite (1-1 ATS).

Pick: Sam Houston +10 or Better



Header First Logo

Washington +7.5 vs. Oregon

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS

Did I turn into a full-on Ducks believer following their victory over USC?

Absolutely not.

USC was missing its two most important defenders and still can't be trusted on the road. The Trojans also didn't help their own cause on special teams.

Look, Oregon is an excellent football team with a deep well of young talent that will be super dangerous next season.

I'm just not as high as the market on them in 2025.

They have crushed inferior teams due to their talent gap, but have looked rather pedestrian at times against the three upper-echelon teams they have played: USC, Indiana, and Iowa (and even against Wisconsin).

I grabbed the hook since I made this game under a touchdown, but also because of Oregon's injury situation.

The Ducks could still be severely shorthanded at wide receiver and are dealing with injuries at three key spots along the offensive line. We'll see who can give it a go, but they won't be at 100% on that side of the ball.

Washington has also dealt with a plethora of injuries all season, but the Huskies were able to rest almost everybody who had been ailing during back-to-back blowout wins over the past two weeks.

Imagn Images. Pictured: Washington Huskies QB Demond Williams Jr.

Oregon did not have that same luxury against the Trojans.

As of now, it looks like star running back Jonah Coleman (who should have plenty of success vs the Ducks) and star wide receiver Denzel Boston (along with his running mate Raiden Vines-Bright) will be good to go.

The offensive line also looks close to full strength (maybe except for center, with Hatchett still wearing a cast on his snapping hand). The essential pieces are John Mills and Carver Willis, who have missed five combined games this season, and the offense completely crumbled because the Huskies just don't have any offensive line depth.

That's one of the key differences right now between Washington and the upper echelon of the Big 10. However, when healthy (it also looks like star cornerback Tacario Davis should be good to go), this team can play with anybody, especially in Seattle, where the Huskies have a very underrated home-field advantage.

Purple Rain can keep this close and has a shot to pull off the upset, assuming their horrid special teams don't completely blow the game (which happened for Iowa and USC against Oregon).


Header First Logo

Notable Nugget

Jedd Fisch went 13-6 ATS as an underdog of a touchdown-plus at Arizona, but has yet to cover in three tries at Washington against Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State.

Pick: Washington +7 or Better



Header First Logo

Auburn +6.5 vs. Alabama

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

Weird things happen at Jordan Hare, especially at night, where the Iron Bowl will be played at Auburn in primetime for the first time since 2007.

If you like crazy college football atmospheres, this is as good as home-field advantage gets for what is essentially a playoff game for Alabama, which has undoubtedly had its road woes in recent seasons.

In fact, since 2021, the Tide are just 5-13 (27.8%) ATS in true road games, failing to cover by over a touchdown per game.

Alabama deserves a ton of credit for an impressive turnaround following an opening week loss at Florida State, but it has escaped quite a few games that could've gone either way (Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina).

In fairness, they did statistically dominate Oklahoma, but that doesn't change the fact that the Tide could easily have three or four losses this season.

Conversely, Auburn has been snakebit all season. Just take a look at some of these losses:

  • 24-17 at Oklahoma
  • 16-10 at Texas A&M
  • 20-10 vs. Georgia
  • 23-17 vs. Missouri in double OT (missed several kicks)
  • 10-3 vs. Kentucky
  • 45-38 at Vanderbilt in OT

If not for a late, unnecessary Stockton touchdown run, Auburn would have six losses all by one possession, with four of those six coming against teams still in the College Football Playoff discussion.

I could also go into a long rant about how the refs have cost them several games, too. The Georgia game was the most egregious, as the Tigers should have been up 17-0 before every single call went against them for about 20 minutes straight, which eventually led to the suspension of the head referee.

They were also royally screwed several times in the close road loss at Oklahoma and didn't get a favorable late whistle for Missouri.

Maybe that happens again here. I can't say it hasn't crossed my mind, given that Alabama needs to win to get into the College Football Playoff, but I can't let that prevent me from making a bet.

College Football Picks, Predictions: Expert Week 14 Bets for Texas A&M vs Texas, Ohio State vs Michigan, More Image

Auburn doesn't get blown out by anybody.

The Tigers have been in every single game until the bitter end, even with incompetent quarterback play from Jackson Arnold for most of the season across one of the most challenging schedules in the nation.

How have they managed to do so? It all starts with the defense, which is arguably one of the nation's top-five units.

Alabama, which already struggles to run the ball, won't get anything on the ground in this matchup. That will leave it all on the shoulders of Ty Simpson and the passing attack. It's worth mentioning that he will be without tight end Josh Cuevas, which isn't insignificant.

You do want to attack Auburn through the air, but being completely one-dimensional on offense in this hostile an environment against a terrific pass rush (top-25 in pressure rate) is asking for trouble, especially considering the Tide rank outside the top-100 nationally in Sack EPA allowed.

However, it's on the other side of the ball where Auburn might be a bit undervalued, with an offense trending up following the departure of Hugh Freeze.

Since he was let go, Auburn has made several changes that have paid immediate dividends. The Tigers have started using more tempo and are getting the ball into space more quickly to their outstanding wide receiver corps.

Most importantly, they now only have one play caller.

The quarterback play has also improved since moving on from Arnold. Ashton Daniels (who threw for 353 in his most recent start against Vanderbilt) should get the start, but I'd expect to see some packages for Deuce Knight following his electrifying six-touchdown performance last week.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see some run packages for Arnold, especially given that Alabama remains vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks.

All that uncertainty at quarterback definitely makes this a much more difficult prep for Alabama defensive coordinator Kane Wommack.

It's also worth noting that Auburn's offensive line has been trending up since moving Mason Murphy to center. The Tigers should be able to get the ground game going against the Tide, making life easier for whoever is under center.

Lastly, don't sleep on special teams. Alabama has been dreadful in that department (102nd, per SP+) with major kicking issues, while Auburn's Alex McPherson has righted the ship of late. Kick 6, anyone?

I'm expecting another classic in this series.


Header First Logo

Notable Nugget

Since 2005, Auburn is 8-2 ATS at home against Alabama, including two near-upsets in 2021 and 2023 as 20.5- and 13.5-point underdogs, respectively.

Pick: Auburn ATS (Waiting for +7, but would bet +6 smaller)



Header First Logo

Illinois -7 vs. Northwestern

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX

I’ll keep this simple.

I make this closer to 10, and it’s a great buy-low, sell-high spot with the Illini coming off an embarrassing loss at Wisconsin (whose defense is playing at an incredible level at the moment).

At the same time, Northwestern just won thrillingly in the final seconds against Minnesota to clinch a bowl, which is a big deal for that team this year.

I expect the Illini to bounce back at home (where they’ve played much better all year) in primetime against a Wildcat team it can handle at the line of scrimmage, which should allow Luke Altmyer to move the ball through the air with relative ease.

I think we are getting Illinois at a discount here and could see the Wildcats coming out a bit flat.

Pick: Illinois -7 or Better



Header First Logo

California +13.5 vs. SMU

8 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2

This line opened around SMU -10.5, but it has since gone too far, in my opinion.

SMU does need to win to clinch a spot in the ACC Championship, so I believe we may be getting a bit of a "must-win" tax on a game I project at 10.5.

Ultimately, this sets up as a pristine buy-low/sell-high spot, with Cal coming off a blowout loss to Stanford in which it actually out-gained the Cardinal. At the same time, SMU is fresh off a blowout win over a checked-out Louisville squad that was extremely shorthanded (including at quarterback).

It's also a decent matchup for the Bears, who can't run the ball a lick. Well, nobody can run the ball against the Mustangs, so that won't matter much here.

It will be up to JKS slinging the pill against a vulnerable SMU pass defense. He has to avoid taking too many sacks, which is my primary concern going into this matchup.

Additionally, Cal's run defense is dreadful, but SMU has really struggled to find a consistent rushing attack all season long. The strength of the Cal defense, by far, is the secondary, which is critical against the pass-heavy Stangs.

Historically, Cal has thrived as a large underdog under defensive backs whisperer Justin Wilcox, whose defenses have consistently excelled at limiting explosive passing plays.

Wilcox is no longer in town after being let go following last week's loss. What impact will that have this week? It's hard to say, but the defense's structure should remain the same.

Plus, you could see a potential one-week coach bump with Nick Rolovich, as we've seen many times after in-season coaching changes. We could see some new wrinkles on offense that SMU doesn't have on tape.

This line is just too high. Cal closed as a 4.5-point underdog at home against Virginia not too long ago and should have covered if not for a pick-six in the final seconds.

This is also a team that recently went on the road and won at Louisville to end the Cardinals' season.

SMU has played better of late (in part due to a healthier Kevin Jennings), but this isn't an elite team by any stretch. The Mustangs have had plenty of very underwhelming results, including home games against Syracuse and Stanford that left a lot to be desired. This isn't easy travel, either.


Header First Logo

Notable Nugget

In the Justin Wilcox era, Cal went 17-8 ATS (68%) as a double-digit underdog, covering by over a touchdown per game on average. That includes a 6-1 ATS mark at home in that role.

Pick Cal +13 or Better



Author Profile
About the Author

Stuckey is a senior betting analyst at Action Network, focusing on college football, college basketball, and the NFL. He hosts The Action Network Podcast and co-hosts the Big Bets on Campus podcast with Collin Wilson and Brett McMurphy. Stuckey was Action Network’s first content hire in 2017, helping launch their award-winning app, and continues to work closely with their development team. A CFA Charterholder, Stuckey has been betting since 2003 and has a background as a derivatives analyst in the financial industry. He holds an MBA from George Washington University.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.