We're on to Week 11 of the college football season.
My primary goal here is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.
Looking to Saturday, I have highlighted my four favorite noon betting spots for Saturday's college football slate.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing, which I bet and logged on the Action App. For your convenience, I included what number I'd play each to in case the market has moved a bit or you read this later in the week.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 11, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 41-35-0 +1.51 units (53.9%)
- Overall: 86-55-1 +24.33 units (61.0%)
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| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Penn State +5.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Kentucky +10.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Texas Tech +3.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Virginia Tech +1 |
Penn State +5.5 vs. Michigan
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
I've been wrong on every Penn State side this season. Some have been bad calls, while others have been brutal bad beats. Nonetheless, I'd like to congratulate all Michigan fans and bettors in advance.
I really should know better. After the Nittany Lions blow out an inferior opponent, it would be on brand for "small game James" to come up short once again against an elite team.
However, that would require some form of intelligence, which I clearly have demonstrated countless times over the years I simply don't have. So, I'm reluctantly backing the home team I project as a three-point underdog.
From a matchup perspective, I still have questions about this Michigan offensive line in the run-blocking department, which is where it dominated a Penn State defensive line that since bulked up significantly in the offseason.
The Wolverines haven't really needed to be great on the ground against a clown car schedule with JJ McCarthy playing at an extremely high level, but this is a significant step up in class against one of the better passing defenses in the country (No. 1 in EPA) with a ferocious pass rush that will probably get back Amin Vanover and future first-round draft pick Chop Robinson back from injury.
Michigan also doesn't have a Marvin Harrison Jr. to simply throw it up to. Nobody does.
On the other side of the ball, I've been underwhelmed by the Penn State offense for the majority of the season.
For some unknown reason, the Nittany Lions simply refused to throw the ball downfield through the first half of the year, which is why I avoided backing them at Ohio State. I had the belief that you can't just magically turn that facet of an offense on in a hostile environment against a great defense. That ended up being the case in Columbus.
Well, Penn State has seemingly learned its lesson over the past two weeks and started throwing the ball downfield. After Drew Allar had his biggest ADOT (10.8) of the season against Maryland, he absolutely shredded Maryland in College Park.
It was nice to see the passing game wake up with transfer Dante Cephas (who I was high on coming into the season) finally making an appearance last week with six catches and two touchdowns after not logging more than two receptions in any game this season. That's a potentially enormous boost for the PSU aerial attack.
Admittedly, it's hard to pinpoint just how great this Michigan team is after playing nine nobodies to start the season, but I'm confident this will provide a shock to the system right off the bat in a hostile environment against a team on its plane — similar to what we saw with Penn State in the Shoe earlier this year.
Michigan also has plenty going on off the field, which could serve as a distraction, and who knows how this sign-stealing stuff impacts anything? While I don't put much stock into either, it only adds potential positive variance for the underdog here.
I'm waiting to see where this market goes in a dead range before firing but will play PSU down to +4.
Take my money once again. We Are.
Pick: Penn State +5.5 (Play to +4)
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, James Franklin is the third-most profitable head coach in our Action Labs database among 588 coaches at 85-59-5 (59%), covering by over a field goal per game.
However, he's just 5-10 against the number vs. top-five teams.
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Kentucky +10.5 vs. Alabama
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
This is a tricky spot for Alabama, which could come out a bit flat for a noon kick in Lexington after back-to-back enormous wins to avenge losses from last season.
Conversely, this is Kentucky's Super Bowl in a rare home game against the Tide.
Yes, Alabama's offense finally looked the part for the entire game last week, but that came against a horrendous — and severely shorthanded — LSU defense that has been shredded by any offense with a pulse all season.
Don't forget this Alabama offense has gone through long droughts all season due to problems along the offensive line and Milroe's lack of accuracy in the intermediary part of the field.
It's why the Tide only beat Arkansas by three at home and arguably should've lost at Texas A&M if Jimbo Fisher had a brain. Even against Tennessee, we saw the offense explode in the second half, but the first half was ugly, speaking to those bouts of inconsistency.
Milroe's deep ball and legs remain elite, but the zone-heavy Kentucky defense is constructed to take both of those elements away from opposing offenses.
The Cats have already faced five mobile quarterbacks this season who have a combined 40 rushes for 186 yards after removing sacks.
Meanwhile, the UK defense also ranks 11th in overall explosiveness allowed and eighth on passing downs, which is critical against Milroe.
You have to beat this Kentucky defense with efficient passing in the short to intermediate parts of the field, which Milroe still struggles to do. You can also almost count on one key interception when he misreads the zone.
The Kentucky offense won't have an easy time against an elite Alabama defense, but quarterback Devin Leary is now fully healthy after dealing with some mechanical issues that stemmed from last year's pectoral injury.
That and major drop issues really held this UK offense back early in the season when it had to completely rely on running back Ray Davis to make plays against stacked boxes.
Not only is this a potential flat spot for Alabama in a true road environment where it has struggled in recent seasons, but I also show value in the number that I make around 7.5.
Schematically, this is a good matchup for the Kentucky defense in what I think sets up as a low-scoring slugfest, which would make the double-digit dog even more valuable.
I expect Alabama's offense to stumble for long stretches due to misfires by Milroe, a few sacks and a turnover or two. While the Tide should ultimately find enough explosive plays to get this done, Kentucky has the means to keep this within 10.
Pick: Kentucky +10.5 (Play to +10)
Notable Nugget
Over the past three seasons, Alabama has gone just 4-8 ATS (33.3%) in true road games, failing to cover by over seven points per game.
In all other home and neutral games against FBS competition over that span, the Tide have gone 16-7 ATS (69.6%).
As a favorite of more than a touchdown, Alabama has gone 13-5 ATS (72.2%) in home and neutral contests compared to just 3-8 ATS (27.3%) in hostile environments.
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Texas Tech +3.5 at Kansas
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
I have a ton of respect for this Kansas coaching staff, which is one of the best in college football.
However, after back-to-back upset wins, I believe we've reached a bit of inflation in the market with the Jayhawks, who I don't think should be favored by more than a field goal, as the defense still has major question marks across the board.
However, while I believe the market has reached semi-inflation on Kansas, this is more of a buy on an undervalued Texas Tech team that's hitting its stride after some brutal luck over the first nine games of 2023.
Let's take a closer look at its season to date.
The Red Raiders started out 3-3 with a trio of one-possession losses and blowout wins.
They easily could have started out 6-0 if not for some tough end-game luck against Oregon, a double-overtime loss at Wyoming and quarterback injuries at West Virginia (and a 2-0 turnover disadvantage).
Sitting at 3-3, Tech then lost at Kansas State after having to turn to third-string quarterback Jake Strong in a game it outgained the Wildcats, 480-435, but couldn't overcome going to Strong or a 3-0 turnover deficit.
Strong then got the start at BYU in another loss where the Red Raiders dominated the box score (389-277 in total yards) but were done in by a -5 turnover margin (5-0) with their third-string signal-caller throwing three picks.
I could go on and on, but this Texas Tech team could easily be 6-2 or even 7-1 with better turnover luck and quarterback health.
With Behren Morton returning last week and looking fully healthy in a win over TCU, I'm fully confident this Red Raider offense can pick apart the Kansas defense here.
Meanwhile, the Texas Tech run defense has been dominant all season, ranking top-10 in EPA, which is critical against a dynamic Kansas offense built on the foundation of getting the ground game going.
This is also an important game for the 4-4 Red Raiders, who probably need to win this one for bowl eligibility purposes.
Wreck 'Em!
Pick: Texas Tech +3.5
Notable Nugget
Following an outright upset victory as an underdog, short home favorites of less than four points have gone just 73-105-2 (41%) ATS, excluding any teams that had a bye in between.
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Virginia Tech +1 at Boston College
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
I'm buying low on the Hokies after last week's 34-3 beatdown at Louisville.
Prior to that loss, Virginia Tech had been trending up with Kyron Drones at quarterback, starting 3-1 in ACC play with the only loss coming at Florida State. In those three league victories against teams in their same weight class, the Hokies scored 38, 30 and 38, winning each by 17 points or more.
While the 4-5 Hokies should have full motivation after getting embarrassed with bowl hopes still alive, Boston College clinched a bowl berth last week.
The Eagles have now won five straight overall, but those wins came against the corpse of Syracuse, Army, Virginia, UConn and a wildly unpredictable Georgia Tech. It's worth noting those first four wins over bad teams all came by one possession, as did an earlier season win over Holy Cross.
The Eagles could easily be sitting at 3-6 on the season if not for a mountain of positive end-game variance.
On potential game-winning or game-tying drives in the final minutes, Holy Cross and Syracuse gave the ball away, while Virginia turned it over on downs. BC also scored in the final 30 seconds to take down Army.
Quarterback Thomas Castellanos has provided a spark to the Eagles offense with his legs. However, this is still an extremely limited offense, especially through the air.
Boston College will try to grind this game away with a ground-and-pound style, which might have some success against Virginia Tech for stretches. But it's hard to rely on that style all the way up and down the field with a beat-up running back group since BC likely won't get anything through the air against an excellent Hokies secondary that ranks in the top 20 in both Success Rate and EPA per Play.
Meanwhile, Drones can make enough plays with his legs here and hit a few explosives against a much worse BC secondary to get this done in a good spot on paper.
Pick: Virginia Tech +1 (Play to -1.5)
Notable Nugget
Virginia Tech lost, 31-3, at Louisville last week as 10-point underdogs.
Conference road teams that failed to cover in their previous game by at least 21 points while scoring three or fewer have gone 70-46-3 (60.3%) the following week, covering by 3.8 points per game on average. That speaks directly to the buy-low nature of those teams.
