Last week, we got back to our winning ways with a 2-1 performance.
But as the games start to get a bit more intense and the weather begins to play a larger factor, unders are beginning to look a lot more appealing than they were in the first few games of the season.
Let’s have a look at the big names on the board with projections that differ significantly from the totals listed in the market.
College Football PrizePicks · Week 10
In the table below, you'll find each of Mike Calabrese's favorite PrizePicks plays for Saturday, Nov. 4. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | PrizePick Play |
|---|---|
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Penn State vs. Maryland
Drew Allar
Less Than 219.5 Passing Yards
Last week against Indiana, Allar had 142 passing yards with 2:56 remaining in the game. He then hit two passes for 68 yards and pushed his passing total to 210 yards for the game.
That final drive is the only reason that this number is above 205 yards, in my opinion. This offense doesn’t call for Allar to push the ball downfield, and he’s more than content dinking and dunking all game long.
According to NBC Sports’ Eric Froton, Allar’s ADOT (average distance of throw) is just 7.5 yards. That is the 83rd-lowest out of 92 FBS quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts in 2023.
He hasn’t surpassed this total in seven straight games.
The normal fear playing an under is that a passer could be given more opportunities to throw the football, but Allar has a healthy attempt rate of 32 passes per game in his last seven games.
They dial up plenty of throws, but they’re almost exclusively underneath.
And the final piece of the puzzle here is the Maryland defense, which ranks 37th in limiting passing explosives. The Terps give up fewer than three pass plays of 20-plus yards per game (42nd).
It’ll never feel completely safe, but the chances of Allar being asked to throw for 220-plus yards in this game are slim.
Pick: Drew Allar Less Than 219.5 Passing Yards
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
Ollie Gordon II
More Than 122.5 Rushing Yards
Following a humbling 33-7 home loss to South Alabama, things looked bleak in Stillwater. Would this be Mike Gundy’s last season? Would the Pokes’ bowl streak of 17 straight appearances (sixth longest in the country) finally be broken?
Oklahoma State needed answers, particularly on offense, and it turned to Ollie Gordon II.
The sophomore running back had just 19 carries through three weeks before exploding and single-handedly saving the Cowboys’ season.
In the past five games, he’s rushed for 978 yards (195.6 YPG), scored nine total touchdowns and fumbled just once. He’s the OSU offense, and he’ll be seeing 25-plus carries for the fourth straight game against Oklahoma.
Speaking of Oklahoma, the Sooners have one glaring weakness when it comes to their run defense. They give up huge chunk plays on the ground (105th in explosives allowed). That’s music to the ears of Gordon, who has long runs of 75, 71, 53 and 42 yards all in the past five games.
Last week, Kansas rushed for 225 yards against Oklahoma. The week before that, UCF lead back RJ Harvey cracked the century mark as well.
The OU defense run defense seems to be breaking down, which is bad news for the Sooners in Bedlam and good news for Gordon.
Pick: Ollie Gordon II More Than 122.5 Rushing Yards
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Missouri vs. Georgia
Luther Burden III
Less Than 92.5 Receiving Yards
Luther Burden III and the Mizzou offense have been one of the biggest surprises in college football this season. The former blue-chip recruit had a stellar freshman season, but it was rare for him to show out against quality opponents.
Last season, against ranked SEC opponents his average line was three receptions for 13 yards.
This season, he’s exploded.
He’s averaging 7.5 receptions for 113 yards, and he’s scored six touchdowns. He’s been targeted a dizzying 87 times in eight games. So, why play under on his total here?
The Georgia coaching staff will do everything it can to bottle this man up.
The Bulldogs are 11th in Success Rate against the pass and 21st in limiting aerial explosives. Between Kirby Smart, Will Muschamp and Glenn Schumann, there’s enough defensive know-how to take away Mizzou's No. 1 option.
And in the game within the game element, Eli Drinkwitz is sure to cook up different ways for Burden to get involved. Jet sweeps, reverses and Wildcat packages, should all make an appearance in this game. Toss in punt returns, and Burden will get his chances to impact this game.
I just don’t expect to see him running wild in a buttoned-up Bulldog secondary.
