Colorado vs Oregon Odds
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+21 -110 | 70.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-21 -110 | 70.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
A storybook season continues for the University of Colorado after it has shattered every buzz metric available.
The Buffaloes survived a post-midnight overtime tilt with Colorado State, drawing the eyeballs of 9.3 million viewers.
A preseason win total of 3.5 is now in reach before head coach Deion Sanders reaches the toughest portion of the schedule. Colorado will travel to Autzen Stadium for its first Pac-12 conference game against Oregon, where head coach Dan Lanning cast shade on the Buffaloes earlier this summer.
The bar is set much higher for the Ducks, who already own a 3-0 record with three covers thanks to a tremendous bad beat at Texas Tech. Despite losing an offensive coordinator over the offseason, Oregon still features one of the most powerful offenses in the nation.
Lanning has had nothing but praise for Sanders in press conferences leading up to kickoff, as Oregon enters the game with full health.
The question remains if the heavy emotional toll and physical injuries catch up with Colorado, or if the magical season continues on the road in conference play.
Colorado Buffaloes
No player may be more important to their team than Travis Hunter.
The Jackson State transfer has provided the Buffaloes with 157 snaps on offense and 185 snaps on defense, filling out the roster at wide receiver and cornerback. Colorado must fill the gap on both sides of the ball, an easier task on the offensive side.
Hunter was third in targets behind Xavier Weaver and Jimmy Horn Jr. Weaver averages 2.5 yards per route run, providing all the explosiveness needed for the Colorado offense.
Shedeur Sanders strike ➡️ Xavier Weaver for the 24 yard TD! #Coloradopic.twitter.com/0Hgm4nvuGZ
— Video from: @TSV__1 (@TSV__1) September 17, 2023
The slack on the defensive side of the ball will more than likely fall to Ole Miss cornerback transfer Kyndrich Breedlove. The sophomore did not play in 2022 but provided 53 snaps of relief for Hunter against Colorado State.
Breedlove was targeted immediately by the Rams, allowing five catches and a touchdown on seven targets. The coverage numbers were not at the national average, so there's every expectation that Oregon will focus on targeting the Buffaloes' cornerback.
Outside of the loss of Hunter, Colorado is struggling to establish the rush offensively and collect third-down stops defensively.
No Colorado running back averages more than 2.9 yards after contact, as the unit has generated one of the lowest missed tackle rates in the Power 5.
Dylan Edwards has been a spark for the Buffaloes out of the backfield as a receiver, averaging more than five targets a game for 11.4 yards per catch.
The struggles continue on defense, where Colorado ranks 121st in third-down stops. This is a heavily penalized club averaging 8.3 flags per game for 67 yards.
Passing downs have been the biggest issue for Colorado, ranking 126th in Success Rate while allowing plenty of explosive plays. The injury to Hunter may expose the shallow depth on the roster just before the schedule hits the stiffest part of the season.
Oregon Ducks
Down an offensive coordinator, the Ducks have not missed a beat in 2023. Coordinator Will Stein was hired from UTSA after a one-year stint in the same role for the Roadrunners, implementing minimal changes to the Ducks offense.
Oregon has continued aspects of personnel from Kenny Dillingham's offense, running 60% 11 and 30% 12 through three games this season.
The pre-snap splits are nearly identical from last season to the present, running primarily pistol in rushing attempts and heavy motion preceding a pass attempt.
One thing that has not changed? Oregon is still the best team in the nation in terms of Quality Drives.
The Bo Nix/Tez Johnson connection remains ELITE🎯
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 17, 2023
The Oregon offense is the best in the nation in offensive momentum killer with only 1.9% of plays featuring a negative event. With 211 snaps on the season, Oregon is guilty of one fourth-down stop, two penalties over 10 yards and just a single sack.
The narrative changes on the defensive side of the ball, as the Ducks continue to struggle to stop the rush. Texas Tech boasted the best ground attack on Oregon's schedule thus far, and the Red Raiders averaged a whopping 60% Success Rate in rush attempts, averaging 7.7 yards per play.
Oregon's tackling and coverage numbers come in above last year's averages, but its lack of run defense is the biggest concern for the Ducks entering conference play.
Colorado vs Oregon
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado and Oregon match up statistically:
Colorado Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 117 | 49 | |
| Line Yards | 79 | 85 | |
| Pass Success | 26 | 8 | |
| Havoc | 105 | 64 | |
| Finishing Drives | 76 | 68 | |
| Quality Drives | 46 | 32 | |
Oregon Offense vs. Colorado Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 7 | 85 | |
| Line Yards | 5 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 10 | 99 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 105 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 71 | |
| Quality Drives | 1 | 66 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 56 | 25 |
| PFF Coverage | 65 | 25 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 90 | 12 |
| Middle 8 | 57 | 18 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.5 (14) | 26.4 (60) |
| Rush Rate | 40.0% (132) | 44.8% (105) |
Colorado vs Oregon
Betting Pick & Prediction
The look-ahead line at multiple shops had Oregon -13.5 for this Week 4 game against Colorado. That number opened 16.5 on Sunday morning before a pile of steam raced the number to three scores.
Market entry is important when making any wager, with the biggest question surrounding where this number will close. The Action Network Power Ratings put this game squarely on Oregon -21, but additional steam could hit the market on Saturday with SP+ calling for a 28-point victory for the home team.
The area where the Ducks are most vulnerable is their defense against the rush. However, Colorado has been unable to string together methodical drives utilizing the ground game, instead electing to throw on 60% of snaps.
With a rank outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate and Havoc Allowed, Colorado likely won't be able to generate clock-eating drives in an attempt to slow down the Ducks.
Any number at Oregon -21 or better is worth investment, with other options in play if steam hits leading up to kickoff.
As for the total, the mathematical calculation calls for the game to land on 74 based on tempo, Finishing Drives and net yards per play. Courtesy of former Kent State head coach Sean Lewis, the Colorado offense averages a "Flash Fast" 23.5 seconds per play, a full three seconds faster than Oregon.
The pace is there to cash the over of 70.5, but a sagging number in Colorado Quality Drives and Finishing Drives may limit scoring opportunities for the Buffaloes.
With the best defensive player down for Colorado, there should be no boundaries on the Ducks' ability to drive the field and score. No team has a higher combination of Quality Drives and Finishing Drives than Oregon, as it ranks top-five nationally in both categories.
