UCLA vs Colorado Odds
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -105 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -115 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -700 |
The Colorado Buffaloes descend upon the Rose Bowl to face the UCLA Bruins in a matchup between two Pac-12 teams that desperately need a victory. The UCLA vs Colorado Odds have the Bruins as a -14.5 favorite over the Buffaloes, while the total comes in at 60.5.
UCLA has two conference losses, both coming on the road at Oregon State and Utah, but the Bruins fired back in Week 8 by demolishing the Stanford Cardinal, 42-7, for a second Pac-12 victory.
The quarterback carousel continues for UCLA, an aspect that should pay off down the stretch as teams get desperate for depth.
While the Bruins desperately need a win to keep their Pac-12 Championship hopes alive, the Buffaloes need a win to keep their dreams of making a bowl intact.
Colorado sits at four wins on the season, eclipsing the closing preseason win total of 3.5.
Head coach Deion Sanders sits two victories away from leading the Buffaloes to a bowl game, but the schedule is not conducive to getting Colorado to the postseason. The Buffaloes will be a multi-score underdog to Oregon State, Washington State and Utah. While Arizona projects as just a five-point favorite over Colorado, the Buffs need multiple upsets to reach bowl season.
Will one of those upsets happen this week in Pasadena? Read on for our UCLA vs Colorado Odds, Picks, Prediction.
Colorado Buffaloes
The Buffaloes will be on 15 days of rest for this game after an epic collapse against Stanford in Week 7. Colorado took a 29-0 lead into halftime only to be outscored, 36-7, in the second half. The overtime loss was gut-wrenching and possibly ended Colorado's bowl hopes.
Colorado's penalties and third-down struggles provided Stanford with a path for the upset. The Buffaloes logged 17 penalties for 127 yards while allowing the Cardinal to convert 10 of their 18 third-down attempts.
On the bright side, cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter returned to action after missing several games with injury.
1. Travis Hunter has played both ways.
—14 tackles, an INT
—29 catches for 353 yards, two TDs.
3. He's played the equivalent of 8 games worth of snaps.
2. Damn right he made everybody's mid-season All-American list. pic.twitter.com/bQ4iV4luAN
— RJ Young (@RJ_Young) October 18, 2023
Colorado remains a pass-first team, electing to throw on 58% of snaps with a Rushing Success rank of 72nd. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders continues to excel, throwing 21 touchdowns to just three interceptions.
Sanders has thrived in crowded pockets, as the junior has a minimal 16% drop in adjusted completion rate under pressure. The team's Havoc Allowed rank is no fault of Sanders, as the offensive line has given up 56 tackles for loss this season.
Defensively, it's been a frustrating campaign for coordinator Charles Kelly.
The Buffaloes are outside the top 100 in nearly every statistical category, with near dead-last ranks in Havoc and Explosive Passes Allowed. The defensive front seven has also generated the third-fewest total pressures of any team in FBS.
Colorado's defense has one bright spot as the team ranks 10th in Passing Downs Success Rate as the Buffaloes are quick to move from nickel to dime packages in 37% of defensive snaps.
UCLA Bruins
Rumors continue to circulate about UCLA five-star freshman Dante Moore, including an injury and potential transfer portal entry. The quarterback had a forgetful game in a loss at Oregon State two weeks ago, throwing three interceptions while logging five turnover-worthy plays.
Head coach Chip Kelly was quick to dismiss those rumors as the reason for Moore not playing until the fourth quarter against Stanford.
Kelly continues to be mum on the starting quarterback, indicating that past success won't play a role when it comes to selecting the starter for the following week.
Kent State transfer Collin Schlee has yet to start a game, while Ethan Garbers was given the nod against Stanford. Garbers cashed in against the Cardinal, completing 20-of-28 passes with two touchdowns.
Moore is the quarterback with the highest ceiling, evidenced by a number of explosive pass completions throughout the year. The freshman has yet to record a mistake on 31 pass attempts beyond 20 yards.
There's a much more productive narrative around the UCLA defense, a group that ranks among the top 10 in Havoc and Finishing Drives.
The top overall pass rush is led by edge rusher Laiatu Latu, who has generated 32 pressures on the season. The Murphy twins, Grayson and Gabriel, have provided an additional 40 quarterback hurries, making UCLA the most harassing defense in all of college football.
UCLA Edge Laiatu Latu is such a nightmare to block.
Technician + explosive hands + red-hot motor. pic.twitter.com/ywbGvNiMkw
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) October 18, 2023
UCLA vs Colorado
Betting Pick & Prediction
The UCLA defense is set to tee off on a Colorado offensive line that has allowed 122 offensive pressures this season. The Bruins are also expected to stuff any rush attempts from Dylan Edwards or Anthony Hankerson.
This handicap comes down to Colorado's offensive execution on passing downs.
Sanders has been disciplined under pressure, rarely making mistakes without recording a fumble. The Bruins defense has been burned by opponents in passing downs with a downshift in Success Rate and explosives on long third-down attempts.
If Colorado is to challenge in this game, it will come through Sanders' scrambling and accuracy on passing downs.
Could there be relief for Moore in a game against the Buffaloes defense? Colorado ranks 129th in generating pressure with a rank of 114th in third-down stops, which should provide a favorable situation for a freshman quarterback to thrive.
However, Colorado's defense also plays plenty of Cover 3, the coverage Moore has struggled with the most.
However, Colorado's inability to generate success or limit explosives in Cover 3 will prove problematic against the Bruins.
The Buffaloes rank 92nd in on-target allowed rate, a statistic that reviews whether or not the opposing target stays in stride. Colorado doesn't make opposing targets adjust, nor do the Buffaloes record more than four pass breakups per game, so this matchup sets up favorably for UCLA's passing offense.
Action Network projects this game at UCLA -18 with a total of 64.5 — both aligned with the current market.
Colorado has played in a high-scoring affair against every opponent that has a pulse on offense, as TCU, Stanford, USC, Oregon and Colorado State all scored a minimum of 35 points.
There should be no resistance against UCLA wideout J. Michael Sturdivant, who's averaging an elite two yards per route run. While the Bruins are top-20 in pass explosives, the Colorado defense ranks 126th in Passing Expected Points.
Both Chip Kelly and Colorado offensive coordinator Sean Lewis prefer fast-paced games, as each offense averages 23 seconds per play or less.
Avoid the late backdoor potential from Colorado and look at the UCLA team total for investment at 40.5 or better.
